Days Left In The 2018 Hurricane Season

Current Tropics Activity

Active Storms: None.
Active Invests: None.
Active Areas of Interest: None.

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Track By Month

June Hurricane Climatology

July Hurricane Climatology

August Hurricane Climatology

September Hurricane Climatology

October Hurricane Climatology

November Hurricane Climatology

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

[Map of 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes] 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes (Courtesy of NCDC)

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

2017 Hurricane Season Storms

Tropical Storm ARLENE
Duration April 19 – April 21 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
990 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm BRET
Duration June 19 – June 20 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
1007 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm CINDY
Duration June 20 – June 23 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
991 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm DON
Duration July 17 – July 18 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
1005 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm EMILY
Duration July 30 – August 2 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
1001 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane FRANKLIN
Duration August 7 – August 10 2017
Peak intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min)
981 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane GERT
Duration August 12 – August 17 2017
Peak intensity 110 mph (175 km/h) (1-min)
962 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane HARVEY
Duration August 17 – September 1 2017
Peak intensity 130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min)
937 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane IRMA
Duration August 30 – September 12 2017
Peak intensity 180 mph (285 km/h) (1-min)
914 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane JOSE
Duration September 5 – September 22 2017
Peak intensity 155 mph (250 km/h) (1-min)
938 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane KATIA
Duration September 5 – September 9 2017
Peak intensity 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min)
972 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm LEE
Duration September 14 – September 30 2017
Peak intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min)
962 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane MARIA
Duration September 16 – September 30 2017
Peak intensity 175 mph (280 km/h) (1-min)
908 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane NATE
Duration October 4 – October 9 2017
Peak intensity 90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min)
981 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane OPHELIA
Duration October 9 – October 16 2017
Peak intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min)
959 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm PHILIPPE
Duration October 28 – October 29 2017
Peak intensity 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min)
1000 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm RINA
Duration November 5 – November 9 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
991 mbar (hPa)

3 new changes for the 2018 Hurricane Season

1.) Annual update to the track forecast error cone.

One of the biggest changes this hurricane season will be adjustments to the NHC’s hurricane track map, or what most people call “The Cone of Uncertainty”. The cone will shrink.

The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic basin will be smaller this year. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone, and is formed by enclosing the area swept out by a set of imaginary circles placed along the forecast track (at 12, 24, 36 hours, etc.). The size of each circle is set so that two-thirds of historical official forecast errors over the previous five years (2013–2017) fall within the circle.

Track errors have gone down over the last 10 years and forecasts have gotten better as well. In fact, since 2008, the size of the cone of uncertainty at 120 hours, or five days, has shrunk by 35 percent. Since last year, the size of the cone at five days has shrunk by more than 6 percent.

This cone does not encapsulate all impacts from a given storm or hurricane. In fact, most impacts will fall outside of the cone of uncertainty within a forecast out to a day or two. For this reason, among others, the NHC and other meteorologists will be leaning more toward forecast impacts rather than this cone alone in the upcoming hurricane season.

2.) The NHC Public Advisory will now discuss forecast information beyond 48 hours.

The NHC Public Advisory is a text product that contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings and gives pertinent storm information, including general forecast and hazard (storm surge, wind, rainfall, tornadoes, surf) information. The forecast information contained within the advisory will now include information beyond 48 hours. Previously, these advisories were limited to a discussion of a tropical cyclone’s track and intensity forecast through 48 hours. This change will allow public advisories to discuss the track and intensity forecast routinely through 72 hours, and allow the flexibility to discuss the forecast through 5 days when conditions warrant.

To accommodate this change, the Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory section header:


will be changed to:


This will allow forecasters at the NHC to discuss high-impact high-confidence storms, like Hurricane Maria in 2017, as much as 5 days in advance.

3.) The NHC Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphics will become operational in 2018.

The arrival of sustained tropical-storm-force winds is a critical planning threshold for coastal communities, as many preparedness activities become difficult or dangerous once winds reach tropical storm force. Frequently, this timing is estimated using the deterministic NHC track, intensity, and wind-field (size) forecasts, but such an approach doesn’t account for forecast uncertainty, and communities can be caught off guard if a storm speeds up or grows in size beyond what was forecast.

To provide guidance on when users should consider having their preparations completed before a storm, NHC began issuing experimental Time of Arrival of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds graphics in 2017. These graphics will become operational in 2018. The graphics are driven by the same Monte Carlo wind speed probability model that is currently used to determine the risk of tropical-storm- and hurricane-force winds at individual locations – a model in which 1000 plausible scenarios are constructed using the official NHC tropical cyclone forecast and its historical errors.

Users will also be able to overlay the standard tropical-storm-force wind speed probabilities with the timing information, providing a single combined depiction of the likelihood of tropical-stormforce winds at individual locations, along with their possible or likely arrival times. Examples of these graphics are shown below.

wind arrival



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