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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesEastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesSE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane StrikesNE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WATCHING: 2 Areas Of Interest

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 17:41:11 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 301741
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A large non-tropical low pressure system centered north of the
    Madeira Islands is producing gale-force winds in addition to a broad
    region of showers and thunderstorms. This low has changed little in
    organization over the last 24 hours, but it could still acquire
    subtropical characteristics as it drifts slowly southwestward over
    the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions are
    forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless
    of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce
    strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through
    Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High
    Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Berg

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 17:30:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 301730
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Mon Nov 30 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    A large non-tropical low pressure system centered just north of
    the Madeira Islands is continuing to produce disorganized
    showers and thunderstorms. This low is expected to meander over
    the next day or so and could acquire subtropical characteristics
    during that time. Afterwards, environmental conditions are
    forecast to become unfavorable for further development.
    Regardless of subtropical formation, this system will continue
    to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
    Islands through Tuesday. Gale force winds are occurring with
    this low north of 33N and east of 22W. This low has a medium
    chance of becoming a subtropical cyclone through 48 hours. Refer
    to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov
    for more details. Also, refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
    Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com
    /previsions-meteo-
    marine/bulletin/ grandlarge/metarea2.

    Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
    29N83W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
    the front. Gale force winds have developed over the southwest
    Gulf of Mexico mainly south of 20N and west of 95W. These
    conditions will continue through tonight as the front continues
    moving southeast across the basin. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
    07N12W to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from 08N30W to the coast
    of Brazil near 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from
    05N-12 and east of 34W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
    Gale Warning currently in effect for the SW Gulf due to a
    frontal passage. In the wake of the front, fresh to strong north
    to northwest winds prevail, while gentle to moderate southwest
    winds are noted ahead of the front.

    The front will continue moving southeast across the basin. Winds
    and seas will subside through Tue. High pressure in the wake of
    the front will shift E Tue night through Wed night allowing for
    fresh to locally strong east to southeast winds basin-wide.
    Looking ahead, another cold front late in the week may bring
    gale conditions to the SW Gulf once again by Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Scattered showers prevail over the Yucatan Channel ahead of the
    cold front that extends over the southeast Gulf of Mexico.
    Scattered moderate convection is located over the SW Caribbean
    S of 13N between 76W-83W due to the Monsoon Trough currently
    extending along 10N. Benign weather prevails across the
    remainder of the basin.

    Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most
    of the basin into late week. The cold front will reach the NW
    Caribbean tonight then gradually weaken and stall by mid week
    from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be
    followed by fresh to locally strong NW winds and building seas
    Tue and Tue night.


    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please see the Special Features section above for details on low
    pressure in the far eastern Atlantic N of the Canary Islands that
    has the potential for subtropical development this week. A
    surface trough extends from this low SE between the Canary
    Islands and the coast of Africa, from near 31N13N to 21N20W. No
    convection is currently occurring along this trough.

    Over the central Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from
    near 31N49W to 22N53W to 21N64W. A pre-frontal trough extends
    from 31N46W to 25N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    within 90 nm on either sides of the trough, while scattered
    showers are noted along the front.

    Farther west, a surface trough extends from 24N68W to 22N68W
    with scattered showers. Scattered showers have entered the west
    Atlantic, ahead of a cold front that is currently extending
    along the Georgia/Florida coastlines.

    Strong to near gale force S winds will develop N of 27N and W of
    72W through tonight, ahead of the cold front that will exit the
    SE U.S. coast this evening. This front will move east while
    slowly weakening, then stall from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas and
    eastern Cuba mid-week. Fresh to strong northwest winds and
    building seas will follow in behind the front, mainly N of 25N
    and W of 71W. Winds diminish Tue night, with the highest seas
    shifting to NE of the Bahamas.

    $$

    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 17:41:11 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 30 Nov 2020 21:59:29 GMT
  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 17:41:11 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 301741
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A large non-tropical low pressure system centered north of the
    Madeira Islands is producing gale-force winds in addition to a broad
    region of showers and thunderstorms. This low has changed little in
    organization over the last 24 hours, but it could still acquire
    subtropical characteristics as it drifts slowly southwestward over
    the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions are
    forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Regardless
    of subtropical development, this system will continue to produce
    strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands through
    Tuesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High
    Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Berg

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 15:45:54 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 301545
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1045 AM EST MON 30 NOVEMBER 2020
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z DECEMBER 2020
              TCPOD NUMBER.....20-188
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTES:
     1. THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
     2. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TCPOD OF THE 2020 HURRICANE SEASON UNLESS
        CONDITIONS DICTATE OTHERWISE. WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY 
        MESSAGES WILL COMMENCE TOMORROW.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 30 Nov 2020 20:01:03 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 302000
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    300 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front over the southeast Gulf will exit the basin this
    evening. Gale force winds behind the front off Veracruz will
    diminish tonight, with winds and seas subsiding across the rest
    of the Gulf through Tue. Expect strong SE winds ahead of a
    second front entering the northwest Gulf late Wed. The front
    will reach from southeast Louisiana to the southwest Gulf by
    late Thu, with gales again possible off Veracruz, from the
    northeast Gulf to the southwest Gulf by late Fri, then southeast
    of the area by Sat.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Moderate to fresh trades will continue across most of the basin
    into late week. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean tonight
    then gradually weaken and stall by mid week from eastern Cuba to
    the Gulf of Honduras. The front will be followed by fresh to
    locally strong NW winds and building seas through mid week.
    Looking ahead, another front may enter the Yucatan Channel by
    late Sat.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front moving across the waters north of 27N will be
    accompanied by strong to near gale force winds through Tue. The
    front will reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by mid week, and
    stall and dissipate from 25N65W to western Cuba through late
    week.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning today into tonight.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:49:30 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011149
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    October was quite busy with five tropical cyclones developing during
    the month. All five systems were named -- Gamma, Delta, Epsilon,
    Zeta, and Eta -- although Eta had become a tropical depression on
    October 31 and then was named early on November 1 (UTC time).
    Three of the storms became hurricanes with two, Delta and Epsilon,
    reaching major hurricane strength. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in
    October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane
    forms in the basin in October about once every three years.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
    in the basin so far in 2020 has been well above average, more than
    40 percent above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
    TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
    H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
    TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
    H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
    MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
    TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
    TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
    SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
    TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
    TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
    MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
    MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
    H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
    TS Eta 31 Oct- 40
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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