Current Tropics Activity

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Article: 2019 Active Hurricane Season Comes To An End.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

Atlantic Cyclone Activity

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Sat, 30 Nov 2019 23:32:52 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302332
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 09 Apr 2020 10:20:15 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 091020
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    805 AM Thu Apr 9 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0900 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal sections of
    Guinea near 10N15W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
    04N20W to 01N40W to 03N50W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
    strong near Liberia from 04N to 08N between 08W and 13W.
    Scattered moderate within 60 nm of the ITCZ axis between 19W and
    26W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Broad anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, both
    aloft and at the surface. A 1015 mb high pressure center is
    analyzed near 26N84W. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf
    of Mexico tonight, then stall and weaken across the southern
    Gulf of Mexico by Friday night. Southerly winds will increase
    across the basin during this weekend as a low pressure system
    tracks across the southern U.S. Another cold front will move
    into the NW Gulf on Mon. It is possible that smoke from
    agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce the
    visibilities in the SW Gulf of Mexico and the Bay of Campeche.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.
    A surface trough passes through the Atlantic Ocean near 22N50W
    to 18N60W, to Puerto Rico. Precipitation: Rain showers are
    possible, in areas of broken low level to middle level clouds,
    from 17N to 24N between 60W and 74W. Rain showers are possible
    elsewhere from 16N southward from 75W westward, and the rest
    of the area west of 75W.

    Moist southerly flow is expected to increase gradually across
    parts of Central America and Colombia the next three days. Large
    scale conditions are forecast to become favorable for enhanced
    convective precipitation through the middle of next week.
    Locally heavy rainfall, over an inch per day, is possible in
    parts of southern Costa Rica, Panama, western Colombia and
    northwestern Ecuador during this time period.

    High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to
    strong winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight.
    Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras,
    becoming strong this weekend. Long-period northerly swell will
    affect the waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sun.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A surface trough passes through 32N42W to 22N50W to 18N60W to
    Puerto Rico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered
    clouds and widely scattered moderate rain showers are within 400
    to 600 nm east-southeast of the surface trough north of 24N.
    Isolated moderate to locally strong rain showers are within 300
    to 400 nm east-southeast of the surface trough from 20N to 24N
    from 50W eastward. Rain showers are possible elsewhere within
    300 nm north of the surface trough between 50W and Puerto Rico.

    A trough will move across the northern waters through tonight.
    Fresh to strong winds are expected east of this trough axis.
    A cold front will move across the region Fri through Sat night.
    Southerly winds will increase east of Florida Sun through Mon as
    a developing low pressure system moves off the U.S. east coast.

    $$
    DM/MT

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 31 Mar 2020 14:30:49 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 311430
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1030 AM EDT TUE 31 MARCH 2020
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2020
              WSPOD NUMBER.....19-122
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
            DICTATE OTHERWISE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 09 Apr 2020 06:06:04 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    181
    AGXX40 KNHC 090605
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    205 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front will reach the northern Gulf tonight, then stall and
    weaken across the southern Gulf by Fri night. Southerly winds
    will increase across the basin this weekend as a low pressure
    system tracks across the southern U.S. Another cold front will
    move into the NW Gulf on Mon. Smoke from agricultural fires in
    southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay
    of Campeche.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to strong
    winds near the coast of Colombia through tonight. Fresh winds
    will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong
    this weekend. Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters
    east of the Lesser Antilles tonight through Sun.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A trough will move across the northern waters through tonight.
    Fresh to strong winds are expected E of the trough axis. A cold
    front will move SE across the region Fri through Sat night.
    Southerly winds will increase east of Florida Sun through Mon as
    a developing low pressure system moves off the eastern U.S.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sun, 01 Dec 2019 05:11:33 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010511
    TWSAT


    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    One tropical storm (Sebastien) formed in the Atlantic basin in the
    month of November, and one subtropical storm (Rebekah) that formed
    in October was still active when the month began. On average, one
    tropical storm forms in the basin every other year in the month of
    November.

    Overall, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Eighteen named storms formed, of which six became
    hurricanes and three became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
    on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and
    three major hurricanes. There were also two tropical depressions
    that did not reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated
    Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and
    duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic
    basin in 2019 was well above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40*
    H Barry 11-15 Jul 75*
    TD Three 22-23 Jul 35*
    TS Chantal 21-23 Aug 40*
    MH Dorian 24 Aug- 7 Sep 185
    TS Erin 26-29 Aug 40*
    TS Fernand 3- 4 Sep 50
    TS Gabrielle 3-10 Sep 60
    MH Humberto 13-19 Sep 125
    TS Imelda 17-19 Sep 40
    H Jerry 17-25 Sep 105
    TS Karen 22-27 Sep 45
    MH Lorenzo 22 Sep- 2 Oct 160
    TS Melissa 11-14 Oct 65
    TD Fifteen 14-16 Oct 35*
    TS Nestor 18-19 Oct 60
    TS Olga 25 Oct 40
    H Pablo 25-28 Oct 80
    STS Rebekah 30 Oct- 1 Nov 45
    TS Sebastien 19-24 Nov 55
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit