Current Tropics Activity

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Article: 2019 Active Hurricane Season Comes To An End.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

Atlantic Cyclone Activity

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Sat, 30 Nov 2019 23:32:52 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302332
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 19 Feb 2020 10:34:09 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 191033
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    533 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning...

    The combination of high pressure over the subtropical Atlantic and
    relatively low pressure over northern South America is expected
    to produce strong winds near the coast of Colombia during the next
    couple of days. The winds are expected to be strongest and reach
    gale force at night with sea heights forecast to peak as high as
    16 ft. Low pres developing off the SE coast of the United States
    will weaken the ridge over the western Atlc enough to allow the
    gales to abate by Thu. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast,
    under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or visit our
    website at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 10N14W
    to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to 00N28W to the coast
    of Brazil near 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
    from 03N-05S between 22W-46W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    As of 19/0900 UTC, a cold front is over the NW Gulf of Mexico from
    S Louisiana near 29N92W to S Texas near 27N97W. Scattered showers
    are within 60 nm of the front. 20 kt N winds are N of the front.
    5-15 kt SE winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere,
    radar imagery shows scattered showers along the coast of central
    Florida near Tampa from 26N-29N between 82W-84W.

    A cold front along the Texas coast will slowly move southeastward
    through tonight. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front
    quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale
    force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico
    Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri evening. Expect strong N-NE winds
    elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A gale warning is currently in effect for portions of the south-
    central Caribbean Sea. For details on this hazard, see the
    warning section above. Otherwise, 10-30 kt tradewind flow
    continues across the Caribbean Sea. Weakest winds are over the
    Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers are moving within the
    tradewind flow south of 19N.

    High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
    winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale
    force off the coast of Colombia at night. Winds and seas will
    diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic Thu
    through Fri night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach
    the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean
    through Sat night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1035 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 39N17W. A
    ridge axis extends WSW to N Florida. Of note in the upper levels,
    an upper level trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N56W to
    20N57W. Scattered showers are within 360 nm E of the trough axis.

    High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong winds
    near the Windward Passage through tonight. A cold front moving
    off the SE U.S. coast today will stall near 30N through Thu.
    Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front across the
    forecast area Thu night through Sat. Near gale force winds are
    expected on both sides of the front on Fri. Winds will gradually
    diminish across the region Sat and Sun. Large NE swell is expected
    to impact much of the area this weekend.

    $$
    Formosa

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 18 Feb 2020 18:03:31 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 181803
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0105 PM EST TUE 18 FEBRUARY 2020
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z FEBRUARY 2020
              WSPOD NUMBER.....19-080
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  TWO USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE
            NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY THREE CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
            MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC FOR THE 21/0000Z
            SYNOPTIC TIME.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 19 Feb 2020 07:45:45 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 190745
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    245 AM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front along the Texas coast will slowly move southeastward
    through tonight. Reinforcing cold air will then push the front
    quickly across the remainder of the Gulf Thu through Fri. Gale
    force conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico
    Fri morning, and Veracruz Fri evening. Expect strong N-NE winds
    elsewhere behind the front and building seas through early Sat.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong
    winds across the central Caribbean through Thu, pulsing to gale
    force off the coast of Colombia at night. Winds and seas will
    diminish across the Caribbean and the Tropical N Atlantic Thu
    through Fri night. A cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will reach
    the Yucatan Channel Fri night, and move across the NW Caribbean
    through Sat night.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong winds
    in the approaches of the Windward Passage through tonight. A
    cold front moving off the SE U.S. coast today will stall near 30N
    through Thu. Reinforcing cold air will push a strong cold front
    across the forecast area Thu night through Sat. Near gale force
    winds are expected on both sides of the front on Fri. Winds will
    gradually diminish across the region Sat and Sun. Large NE swell
    is expected to impact much of the area this weekend.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri into Fri night.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
    INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
    Gale Warning early today into tonight.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Mundell. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sun, 01 Dec 2019 05:11:33 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010511
    TWSAT


    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    One tropical storm (Sebastien) formed in the Atlantic basin in the
    month of November, and one subtropical storm (Rebekah) that formed
    in October was still active when the month began. On average, one
    tropical storm forms in the basin every other year in the month of
    November.

    Overall, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Eighteen named storms formed, of which six became
    hurricanes and three became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
    on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and
    three major hurricanes. There were also two tropical depressions
    that did not reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated
    Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and
    duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic
    basin in 2019 was well above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40*
    H Barry 11-15 Jul 75*
    TD Three 22-23 Jul 35*
    TS Chantal 21-23 Aug 40*
    MH Dorian 24 Aug- 7 Sep 185
    TS Erin 26-29 Aug 40*
    TS Fernand 3- 4 Sep 50
    TS Gabrielle 3-10 Sep 60
    MH Humberto 13-19 Sep 125
    TS Imelda 17-19 Sep 40
    H Jerry 17-25 Sep 105
    TS Karen 22-27 Sep 45
    MH Lorenzo 22 Sep- 2 Oct 160
    TS Melissa 11-14 Oct 65
    TD Fifteen 14-16 Oct 35*
    TS Nestor 18-19 Oct 60
    TS Olga 25 Oct 40
    H Pablo 25-28 Oct 80
    STS Rebekah 30 Oct- 1 Nov 45
    TS Sebastien 19-24 Nov 55
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit