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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesEastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesSE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane StrikesNE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 23:11:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 152310
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 23:53:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 152353
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    805 PM Wed Jul 15 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from
    02N-19N, moving westward at an estimated speed of about 15 kt.
    This wave is helping to enhance convection along the west African
    monsoon trough as evident by the clusters of scattered moderate
    to isolated strong convection that are occurring within 120 nm
    west of the wave axis from 07N to 11N. Scattered moderate
    convection is seen from 05N to 07N west of the wave to 33W.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from
    03N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. This wave is moving
    through a stable surrounding environment. Only scattered showers
    and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 180 nm east and 60 nm
    west of the wave axis from 03N to 08N.

    Another central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed with its axis
    along 53W south of 20N to inland South America. It is moving
    westward at 15-20 kt. Saharan dust was noted in the last few
    GOES-16 visible images to be present across this wave. This is
    inhibiting any deep convection from developing near the wave for
    the time being. Only isolated showers are along and within 150
    nm ahead of the wave axis from 05N-11N.

    An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W
    from 11N to 22N. It is moving westward at an estimated speed of
    16 kt. Very strong subsidence and resulting dry air over this
    area of the Caribbean is only allowing for fast moving isolated
    showers to exist east of the wave and within 180 nm west of the
    wave north of 14N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
    13N17W south-southwestward to 09N20W and westward to 09N30W and
    to 08N42W, where latest scatterometer data indicates the ITCZ
    begins and continues to 08N48W and to 08N52W. It resumes west
    of a tropical wave (position at 53W) from 07N54W to 07N58W.
    Aside from the convection mentioned above in association
    with the tropical waves, overall deep convection is very minimal
    along the and near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Only scattered
    moderate convection is within 60 nm northwest of the monsoon
    trough between 17W-18W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A mid to upper-level small low is identified on water vapor
    imagery to be over the Florida panhandle near 30N86W. A mid to
    upper-level trough extends from the low to near 27N89W. With
    these features acting on a very unstable environment in place,
    the result has been for clusters showers and thunderstorms near
    and inland the coast between Pensacola and southeastern
    Louisiana. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm
    offshore that same coast. Expect for most of the shower and
    thunderstorm activity to gradually diminish during tonight.

    A weak 1019 mb high center is near 26N86W, with weak ridging
    extending from it west-northwest to the northeastern Texas. The
    associated gradient is providing for gentle wind speeds over the
    eastern and central Gulf, with slightly higher winds, of
    moderate speeds, closer to Texas and in the SW Gulf.

    As for the forecast. the ridge will lift northward tonight ahead
    of a surface trough moving across Florida into the southeast
    Gulf before dissipating over the central Gulf through Sat. This
    pattern will maintain gentle to moderate winds and low seas,
    except for locally fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan
    peninsula due to local effects.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A well noted mid to upper-level inverted trough over Central
    America earlier today helped developed numerous moderate to
    isolated strong convection over Nicaragua, and adjacent waters
    of the Caribbean within 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua.
    However, during the past few hours this activity has diminished
    in coverage and in intensity. The combination of Saharan dust and
    moderate to subsidence aloft spread throughout just the entire
    basin is keeping the atmosphere very stable limiting deep
    convective activity from forming. The latest scatterometer data
    shows fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean,
    south of 15N and between 73W-78W.

    As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area will
    maintain pulses of fresh to strong winds tonight in the Windward
    Passage, Gulf of Honduras and off Colombia. These winds will
    diminish through Thu as the high shifts farther to the north.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A mid to upper-level trough stretches from near 32N67W to
    29N69W, where it becomes a shear axis to 28N75W and to
    near 30N79W. At the surface, a small surface trough extends from
    near 32N74W to 28N77W. A more prominent surface trough extends
    from near 30N69W to just north of the southeastern Bahamas.
    Scattered showers and isolated tstorms prevail across the area
    from 21N-28N between 69W and the coast of Florida, including the
    Bahamas. Farther east, another surface trough is analyzed from
    31N53W to 23N59W. Isolated showers are seen moving quickly
    westward near the trough axis. Yet another surface trough extends
    in a SE to NW fashion from near 15N31W to 20N40W. Afternoon
    scatterometer data depicted generally gentle wind speeds across
    most of the area, except for locally fresh speeds in the Windward
    Passage. The scatterometer data also highlighted moderate to
    fresh north to northeast winds over the far eastern Atlantic
    north of 24N and east of 24W to the vicinity of the Canary
    Islands. High pressure covers the remainder of the area.

    As for the forecast, the two troughs northeast of the Bahamas
    will shift westward and weaken tonight. The trough well east
    of the Bahamas will gradually weaken as it moves toward the
    northern Bahamas by Sat. Meanwhile, a ridge will build north of
    the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N
    into early next week.

    $$
    Aguirre

Active Tropical Systems

  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 23:11:01 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 152310
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Pasch
  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 23:11:01 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Wed, 15 Jul 2020 23:53:57 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 13:18:58 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 151318
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0920 AM EDT WED 15 JULY 2020
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JULY 2020
              TCPOD NUMBER.....20-050
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Wed, 15 Jul 2020 19:47:26 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    846
    AGXX40 KNHC 151947
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    347 PM EDT Wed Jul 15 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge along 25N will lift north tonight ahead of a surface
    trough moving across Florida into the southeast Gulf before
    dissipating over the central Gulf through Sat. This pattern will
    maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas, except for
    locally fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due
    to local effects.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    High pressure north of the area will maintain pulses of fresh to
    strong winds tonight in the Windward Passage, Gulf of Honduras
    and off Colombia. These winds will diminish through Thu as the
    high shifts farther north.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A pair of troughs northeast of the Bahamas will dissipate
    through tonight, as a third trough east of the area will weaken
    as it moves into the northern Bahamas by Sat. Meanwhile, a ridge
    will build north of the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade
    winds south of 22N into Sun.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Wed, 01 Jul 2020 11:28:43 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011128
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Wed Jul 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Two tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, formed in the Atlantic
    basin in May, and two more tropical storms, Cristobal and Dolly,
    formed in June. The season has been considerably more active than
    average so far, as a named storm typically forms in June only once
    every other year based on the long-term average of basin activity.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
    in the basin so far in 2020 is well above average.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50
    TS Cristobal 1- 9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    ---------------------------------------------------

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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