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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
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Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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Atlantic Cyclone Activity

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:43:15 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    450
    ABNT20 KNHC 171743
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
    Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of
    Mexico.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

    &&
    Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
    under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header
    WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:50:36 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 171750
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    150 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 22.4N 95.7W
    at 17/1500 UTC or 120 nm E of Tampico Mexico moving N at 7 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. On the forecast track,
    the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday
    night. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or
    subtropical storm later today or tonight, with slow strengthening
    then expected through Friday night. There is a high chance for
    tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See latest NHC
    forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC
    for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W, from 13N southward,
    moving W at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated moderate convection is within
    120 nm of the wave axis.

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 59W, from 20N southward,
    moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is from 10N-22N between 53W-62W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 78W, from 19N southward,
    moving W at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is within 240
    nm of the wave axis S of 12N.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near
    12N17W to 09N20W to 06N34W. The ITCZ extends from 06N38W to the
    coast of French Guyana near 05N52W. Besides the convection
    mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate
    convection is along the monsoon trough from 03N-12N between 16W-
    34W. Isolated moderate convection is along the ITCZ from 06N-09N
    between 46W-49W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See
    above.

    As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front extends from S Florida near 26N80W
    to 26N86W. A quasi-stationary front continues from 26N86W to
    26N92W to 25N95W to 22N96W to 20N97W. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is from 19N-30N between 85W-97W.

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move to 23.7N 94.2W this
    evening, 25.8N 91.0W Fri morning, 28.5N 88.0W Fri evening, become
    extratropical and move to 30.9N 85.0W Sat morning, and 35.5N 77.2W
    Sun morning. Sixteen will change little in intensity as it moves
    to the 37.5N 70.0W early Mon, and continue to the 38.0N 66.5W Tue.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean and another is
    approaching the E Caribbean. See above.

    Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Elsewhere, scattered showers are N of the ABC Islands
    near 13N68W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level high
    is centered over the NW Caribbean near 20N82W. Strong subsidence
    is over the Caribbean from N of 14N between 60W-86W.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin
    through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW portions
    Fri and Sat as low pressure deepens across the Gulf of Mexico. A
    tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles today, and move
    across the eastern Caribbean on Fri. Scattered showers and
    isolated thunderstorms will accompany this wave.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    As of 17/1500 UTC, a cold front is over the W Atlantic from
    31N71W to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
    from 27N-30N between 68W-73W. A surface trough is over the central
    Atlantic from 30N56W to 25N59W depicted by a wind shift. Another
    surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 23N30W to 18N31W.
    Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 25W-31W. A
    1023 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 31N23W. Of note in the
    upper levels, a sharp upper level trough is over the central
    atlantic with axis from 31N47W to 21N61W. Scattered moderate
    convection is N of 24N between 44W-52W. An upper level low is also
    centered over the E Atlantic near 27N31W enhancing convection.

    The W Atlantic cold front will push eastward into the central
    Atlantic through Fri night, but the tail end of the front will
    stall and weaken east of Florida by Fri morning. A developing
    area of low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move across the
    SE U.S. this weekend, and is likely to produce strong southerly
    winds ahead of the low across NW Atlc waters.

    $$
    Formosa

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Thu, 17 Oct 2019 16:01:15 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 171601
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1200 PM EDT THU 17 OCTOBER 2019
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z OCTOBER 2019
              TCPOD NUMBER.....19-142
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIXTEEN
            FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
            A. 18/1400Z                   A. 18/2330Z,19/0530Z
            B. NOAA2 0316A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0416A CYCLONE
            C. 18/1200Z                   C. 18/2245Z
            D. 26.1N 90.7W                D. 28.5N 88.0W
            E. 18/1330Z TO 18/1900Z       E. 18/2300Z TO 19/0530Z
            F. SFC TO 20,000 FT           F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
     
            FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 43        FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
            A. 19/0200Z                   A. 19/1130Z
            B. NOAA3 0516A CYCLONE        B. AFXXX 0616A CYCLONE
            C. 19/0000Z                   C. 19/1045Z
            D. 28.9N 87.5W                D. 30.0N 85.7W
            E. 19/0130Z TO 19/0700Z       E. 19/1100Z TO 19/1430Z
            F. SFC TO 20,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           
     
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 17 Oct 2019 17:46:59 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171746
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    146 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen near 22.4N 95.7W 1007 mb at
    11 AM EDT moving N at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts
    40 kt. Sixteen will move to 23.7N 94.2W this evening, 25.8N
    91.0W Fri morning, 28.5N 88.0W Fri evening, become extratropical
    and move to 30.9N 85.0W Sat morning, and 35.5N 77.2W Sun
    morning. Sixteen will change little in intensity as it moves to
    the 37.5N 70.0W early Mon, and continue to the 38.0N 66.5W Tue.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin
    through the weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW
    portions Fri and Sat as low pressure deepens across the Gulf of
    Mexico. A tropical wave will reach the Lesser Antilles today,
    and move across the eastern Caribbean on Fri. Scattered showers
    and isolated thunderstorms will accompany this wave.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front extending from 31N75W to central Florida will push
    eastward into the central Atlantic through Fri night, but stall
    and weaken east of Florida by Fri morning. A developing area of
    low pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will move across the SE
    U.S. this weekend, and is likely to produce strong southerly
    winds ahead of the low across NW Atlc waters.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
    SANCTUARY...
    Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Fri night.
    .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
    Tropical Storm Warning Fri into Fri night.
    .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
    Tropical Storm Warning tonight.
    .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
    Tropical Storm Warning tonight into Fri.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Sat night.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster CAM. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Oct 2019 12:04:14 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011204
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Oct 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity during September was above average for the
    Atlantic basin, with seven named storms forming during the month,
    three of them becoming hurricanes, and two reaching major hurricane
    status. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), four named
    storms typically form in the basin in September, with three of them
    becoming hurricanes, and one of them becoming a major hurricane.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
    activity in the Atlantic basin in September was well above average,
    and the 11th busiest September on record using that metric.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40*
    H Barry 11-15 Jul 75
    TD Three 22-23 Jul 35*
    TS Chantal 21-23 Aug 40
    MH Dorian 24 Aug- 7 Sep 185
    TS Erin 26-29 Aug 40
    TS Fernand 3- 4 Sep 50
    TS Gabrielle 3-10 Sep 60
    MH Humberto 13-19 Sep 125
    TS Imelda 17-19 Sep 40
    H Jerry 17-25 Sep 105
    TS Karen 22-27 Sep 45
    MH Lorenzo 22 Sep- 160
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit