Current Tropics Activity

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

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Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

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November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Article: 2019 Active Hurricane Season Comes To An End.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

Atlantic Cyclone Activity

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Sat, 30 Nov 2019 23:32:52 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302332
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2020. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 18 Jan 2020 18:06:44 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181806
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    106 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details
    on the special features discussed below.

    ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

    Gale-force winds will continue north of Colombia this weekend and
    diminish to below gale force by late Sun morning. Seas will range
    from 12 to 18 ft in this area.

    ...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

    A cold front extends from 30N45W to 21N63W to 23N81W, then continues
    as a stationary front into the Gulf of Mexico. Latest ASCAT data
    shows gale force N to NW winds north 28N within 600 nm behind the
    front and S to SW gale force winds within 240 nm ahead of the front.
    Gales will spread east with the front north of 28N through the evening.
    Seas will range from 16 to 23 ft near the front.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

    A cold front will move into the NW Gulf of Mexico tonight and move
    eastward across the Gulf Sun into Mon. Behind the front, gale force
    N winds are expected in the far west-central Gulf offshore Tampico
    Sunday and Sunday night. Gales are also forecast in the far SW Gulf
    off Veracruz Sunday night into Mon.

    ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL...

    Large northerly swell in excess of 10 ft will combine with strong
    winds to produce significant wave heights in excess of 15 ft today
    into Sunday over a large area of the Atlantic north of 19N between
    48W-71W. Swell will affect the easternmost shores of the Bahamas
    today, then gradually diminish late Sunday. By tonight, the large
    swell will begin to affect the Greater Antilles, and the northeast
    Caribbean passages.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W
    to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N32W to the coast of Brazil
    near 01S45W. Scattered moderate with convection is noted near and
    within 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-43W. Isolated moderate
    convection is elsewhere within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 23W-20W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the west-central and southwest
    Gulf of Mexico, with gale conditions beginning on Sunday. See
    section above for details.

    Mid-level ridging prevails over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. A
    stationary front extends from the Florida Straits to 28N88W.
    Shallow showers are along the front due to subsidence from the
    ridging. Strong E to SE winds around 25 kt are still being observed
    over the eastern portion of the basin, mainly east of 88W. As the
    front dissipates today, winds and seas should subside. A surface
    trough is in the far western Gulf from 18N94W to 22N97W. Scattered
    showers and isolated tstorms are along the trough, including the
    area from 19N-24N between 93W-97W.

    A weakening stationary front extending from the Florida Straits
    to the north-central Gulf will dissipate today. A cold front will
    move off the Texas coast this evening, extend from the Florida Big
    Bend to Tampico, Mexico on Sun, then reach from the Florida Straits
    to the Bay of Campeche on Mon. Strong N winds will follow the front,
    with gale conditions expected over the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz,
    Mexico Sun night into Mon night. The front will pass SE of the area
    Mon night, allowing winds and seas to diminish across much of the
    Gulf Tue through Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Gale-force winds are noted over the south-central Caribbean off
    the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell is expected for
    the northeast Caribbean passages on Sunday. See the sections above
    for details.

    Strong to near gale tradewinds prevail across the remainder of
    the basin west of 70W. Isolated showers are seen near the Leeward
    Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola as well as the adjacent waters.
    Isolated showers and tstorms are also seen over the Gulf of Honduras.
    The central Caribbean is experiencing relatively dry air due to mid-
    level ridging over the region. Elsewhere, a cold front that extends
    from Cuba to the Southern Bahamas is spreading cloudiness and showers
    along the north coast of Cuba and Hispaniola.

    Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through Sun
    morning, then pulse to gale force again on Sun night. Strong winds
    will prevail across much of the Caribbean into Sun as a cold front
    stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure builds in the
    SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce very large seas
    across the Tropical N Atlantic waters late tonight through Mon
    night. Winds and seas will diminish over the central and eastern
    Caribbean Mon through Wed. A cold front will move into the NW
    Caribbean Mon night, bringing fresh to strong N winds to the
    waters W of 80W through Tue night.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A Gale Warning is in effect for the central Atlantic. Refer to the
    section above for details.

    A cold front extends from 30N45W to 21N63W to 23N81W, then continues
    as a stationary front into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate
    with isolated strong convection is along and within 120 nm ahead of
    the front, north of 25N and east of 50W. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 120 nm behind the front, north of 28N and east of 50W. Aside
    from the gale force winds discussed in the section above, strong to
    near gale force winds are elsewhere north of 24N between 40W-88W.
    East winds of 25-30 kt are over the northwest and central
    Bahamas, the Florida Straits and the Florida Keys. Altimeter data
    indicates significant wave heights of 19 to 25 ft in the area
    from 26N-31N between 48W-63W. Surface ridging is over the far
    eastern Atlantic, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 33N15W. Upper-
    level troughing is producing cloudiness and scattered showers from
    14N-23N between 19W-29W.

    The cold front will begin to stall over the Greater Antilles into
    tonight, then dissipate on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds will
    continue behind the front into Sun. Very large seas in N to NE swell
    will prevail through Mon, resulting in large breaking waves and
    dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic beaches. Another cold
    front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun, then pass SE across the
    forecast waters through early next week. Expect strengthening NE
    winds and building seas across the northern waters through midweek
    following frontal passage.

    $$
    MTorres

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sat, 18 Jan 2020 14:16:18 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 181416
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0915 AM EST SAT 18 JANUARY 2020
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JANUARY 2020
              WSPOD NUMBER.....19-049
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 18 Jan 2020 18:04:15 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 181804
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    104 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A weakening stationary front extending from the Florida Straits
    to the north-central Gulf will dissipate today. A cold front
    will move off the Texas coast this evening, extend from the
    Florida Big Bend to Tampico, Mexico on Sun, then reach from the
    Florida Straits to the Bay of Campeche on Mon. Strong N winds
    will follow the front, with gale conditions expected over the SW
    Gulf offshore of Veracruz, Mexico Sun night into Mon night. The
    front will pass SE of the area Mon night, allowing winds and
    seas to diminish across much of the Gulf Tue through Wed.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Gale force winds will persist off the coast of Colombia through
    Sun morning, then pulse to gale force again on Sun night. Strong
    winds will prevail across much of the Caribbean into Sun as a
    cold front stalls over the Greater Antilles and high pressure
    builds in the SW N Atlantic. Long period N swell will produce
    very large seas across the Tropical N Atlantic waters late
    tonight through Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish over the
    central and eastern Caribbean Mon through Wed. A cold front will
    move into the NW Caribbean Mon night, bringing fresh to strong N
    winds to the waters W of 80W through Tue night.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front extending from near 22N61W to 21N67W westward into
    the Florida Straits will stall over the Greater Antilles
    tonight, then dissipate on Sun. Strong to near gale force winds
    will continue behind the front into Sun. Very large seas in N to
    NE swell will prevail through Mon, resulting in large breaking
    waves and dangerous surf conditions along the Atlantic beaches.
    Another cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun, then pass
    SE across the forecast waters through early next week. Expect
    strengthening NE winds and building seas across the northern
    waters through midweek following frontal passage.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning Sun night.
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning Sun night into Mon.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon into Mon night.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
    INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
    Gale Warning today into Sun night.
    .AMZ039...SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N INCLUDING APPROACHES TO PANAMA
    CANAL...
    Gale Warning tonight.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Reinhart. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sun, 01 Dec 2019 05:11:33 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010511
    TWSAT


    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Sun Dec 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    One tropical storm (Sebastien) formed in the Atlantic basin in the
    month of November, and one subtropical storm (Rebekah) that formed
    in October was still active when the month began. On average, one
    tropical storm forms in the basin every other year in the month of
    November.

    Overall, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Eighteen named storms formed, of which six became
    hurricanes and three became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher
    on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to
    the long-term average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and
    three major hurricanes. There were also two tropical depressions
    that did not reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated
    Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and
    duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic
    basin in 2019 was well above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40*
    H Barry 11-15 Jul 75*
    TD Three 22-23 Jul 35*
    TS Chantal 21-23 Aug 40*
    MH Dorian 24 Aug- 7 Sep 185
    TS Erin 26-29 Aug 40*
    TS Fernand 3- 4 Sep 50
    TS Gabrielle 3-10 Sep 60
    MH Humberto 13-19 Sep 125
    TS Imelda 17-19 Sep 40
    H Jerry 17-25 Sep 105
    TS Karen 22-27 Sep 45
    MH Lorenzo 22 Sep- 2 Oct 160
    TS Melissa 11-14 Oct 65
    TD Fifteen 14-16 Oct 35*
    TS Nestor 18-19 Oct 60
    TS Olga 25 Oct 40
    H Pablo 25-28 Oct 80
    STS Rebekah 30 Oct- 1 Nov 45
    TS Sebastien 19-24 Nov 55
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit