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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

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[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


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[Map of 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes] 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes (Courtesy of NCDC)

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2017 Hurricane Season Storms

Tropical Storm ARLENE
Duration April 19 – April 21 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
990 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm BRET
Duration June 19 – June 20 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
1007 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm CINDY
Duration June 20 – June 23 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
991 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm DON
Duration July 17 – July 18 2017
Peak intensity 50 mph (85 km/h) (1-min)
1005 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm EMILY
Duration July 30 – August 2 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
1001 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane FRANKLIN
Duration August 7 – August 10 2017
Peak intensity 85 mph (140 km/h) (1-min)
981 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane GERT
Duration August 12 – August 17 2017
Peak intensity 110 mph (175 km/h) (1-min)
962 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane HARVEY
Duration August 17 – September 1 2017
Peak intensity 130 mph (215 km/h) (1-min)
937 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane IRMA
Duration August 30 – September 12 2017
Peak intensity 180 mph (285 km/h) (1-min)
914 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane JOSE
Duration September 5 – September 22 2017
Peak intensity 155 mph (250 km/h) (1-min)
938 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane KATIA
Duration September 5 – September 9 2017
Peak intensity 105 mph (165 km/h) (1-min)
972 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm LEE
Duration September 14 – September 30 2017
Peak intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min)
962 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane MARIA
Duration September 16 – September 30 2017
Peak intensity 175 mph (280 km/h) (1-min)
908 mbar (hPa)
Hurricane NATE
Duration October 4 – October 9 2017
Peak intensity 90 mph (150 km/h) (1-min)
981 mbar (hPa)
Major Hurricane OPHELIA
Duration October 9 – October 16 2017
Peak intensity 115 mph (185 km/h) (1-min)
959 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm PHILIPPE
Duration October 28 – October 29 2017
Peak intensity 40 mph (65 km/h) (1-min)
1000 mbar (hPa)
Tropical Storm RINA
Duration November 5 – November 9 2017
Peak intensity 60 mph (95 km/h) (1-min)
991 mbar (hPa)

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook




2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 +0000: Subtropical Storm Leslie Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Subtropical Storm Leslie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT

    Subtropical Storm Leslie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:39:56 GMT
  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:37:39 +0000: Subtropical Storm Leslie Forecast Discussion Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    110 
    WTNT43 KNHC 242037
    TCDAT3
    
    Subtropical Storm Leslie Discussion Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
    500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    Leslie's cloud pattern has become rather ragged and less organized
    this afternoon.  Visible satellite imagery indicates that the
    surface circulation has become elongated, from north to south, with
    multiple cloud swirls rotating within the larger gyre.  The initial
    intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory and could be generous,
    based on the earlier partial ASCAT-A wind retrievals.  The
    intensity forecast philosophy remains the same.  Leslie is expected
    to interact with the incoming baroclinic zone approaching from the
    northwest and begin intensifying as it completes a
    post-tropical/extratropical transition by mid period.  The official
    forecast is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus
    through 36 hours, and a blend of the global models after Leslie
    becomes an extratropical low.
    
    Based on a centroid position of the aforementioned multiple surface
    swirls, Leslie continues to move in an eastward fashion, or 090/6
    kt.  Leslie should turn toward the east-northeast in 36 hours in
    response to an approaching mid-latitude trough and associated cold
    front from the northwest over the central Atlantic.  The large-scale
    models are in good agreement with Leslie completing an extratropical
    transition at that time.  Afterward, the post-tropical cyclone is
    forecast to become cut off from the mid- to upper-tropospheric
    westerly steering flow and move cyclonically toward the end of the
    week between the building Bermuda high to the west and mid-level
    ridging over the east Atlantic.  The NHC forecast now shows Leslie
    as a strengthening extratropical low through day 5, in agreement
    with GFS, Canadian, and European models.  Subsequently, the wind
    radii forecast has also been adjusted based on a compromise of the
    aforementioned large-scale models.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  24/2100Z 33.0N  47.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     12H  25/0600Z 32.9N  46.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
     24H  25/1800Z 32.6N  44.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
     36H  26/0600Z 33.4N  41.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     48H  26/1800Z 35.4N  39.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  27/1800Z 36.9N  42.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     96H  28/1800Z 36.7N  46.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  29/1800Z 36.2N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    
    $$
    Forecaster Roberts
    
    
    
  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:37:11 +0000: Subtropical Storm Leslie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018
    
    968 
    FONT13 KNHC 242037
    PWSAT3
                                                                        
    SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6        
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132018               
    2100 UTC MON SEP 24 2018                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE WAS LOCATED NEAR    
    LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER ROBERTS                                                  
    
    
  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:37:11 +0000: Subtropical Storm Leslie Public Advisory Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    942 
    WTNT33 KNHC 242037
    TCPAT3
    
    BULLETIN
    Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   6
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
    500 PM AST Mon Sep 24 2018
    
    ...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED...
    ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...33.0N 47.2W
    ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM W OF THE AZORES
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Leslie was
    located near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 47.2 West.  The storm is
    moving toward the east near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion
    is expected to continue through Tuesday night.  A turn toward the
    east-northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast on
    Wednesday followed by a north-northeastward turn by Thursday
    morning.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Little change in strength is forecast through Tuesday morning.
    Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week while transitioning
    into an extratropical cyclone.
    
    Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) from the
    center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None.
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Roberts
    
    
    
  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 20:37:11 +0000: Summary for Subtropical Storm Leslie (AT3/AL132018) - NHC Atlantic
    ...LESLIE A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 24 the center of Leslie was located near 33.0, -47.2 with movement E at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 24 Sep 2018 18:02:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    993
    AXNT20 KNHC 241802
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    202 PM EDT Mon Sep 24 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...Special Features...

    Remnants Of Kirk centered near 10.0N 39.5W at 24/1500 UTC or 930
    nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 20 kt.
    Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained
    wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
    isolated strong convection is from 05N-15N between 36W-43W. Kirk
    no longer has a closed circulation thus advisories are no longer
    being continued. The system is now a tropical wave along 39.5W
    south of 16N. A scatterometer pass showed gale force winds. A gale
    is also within 120 nm N Semicircle with seas to 14 ft. See the
    last NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC for more details. Also see High Seas
    forecast issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header
    NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

    Subtropical Storm Leslie centered near 32.5N 48.0W at 24/1500
    UTC or 1080 nm W of the Azores moving E at 4 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind
    speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Widely scattered moderate
    convection is E of the center from 26N-37N between 40W-49W. A
    turn toward the east-northeast with an increase in forward speed
    is forecast on Wednesday. Little change in strength is forecast
    through tonight. Leslie is forecast to strengthen by mid-week
    while it interacts and eventually merges with a frontal system.
    See the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details.

    A broad 1012 mb low is centered NE of the Bahamas near 29N73W. A
    surface trough extends S from the low center to 25N75W. Scattered
    moderate to isolaterd strong convection is from 27N-34N between
    68W-75W. Environmental conditions are expected to become slightly
    more conducive for development during the next day or so while
    the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward. By Tuesday
    night and Wednesday, upper-level winds are expected to increase,
    limiting the chances for additional development, while the system
    moves northward near the southeastern United States coast. There
    is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa along 16W from
    03N-16N, moving west at 10 kt. The 700 mb trough associated with
    this wave is well depicted in model guidance and TPW imagery
    shows abundant moisture in its environment. Widely scattered
    moderate convection is from 04N-17N between 10W-23W.

    A tropical wave is along 53W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15
    kt. The wave corresponds nicely with a maximum in TPW imagery.
    Model analyses also depicts an associated 700 mb trough.
    Scattered showers are located from 07N-14N between 46W-54W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 08N17W to
    07N27W. The ITCZ begins near 07N27W to 09N37W, then resumes west
    of the remnants of Kirk near 08N40W to 05N52W. There is no
    additional convection along the monsoon trough and ITCZ, outside
    of the tropical waves and the remnants of Kirk.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An upper-level low is centered over the N Yucatan Peninsula near
    22N89W. Scattered showers prevail over the Yucatan Peninsula and
    the SE Gulf of Mexico S of 25N and E of 90W. A large upper-level
    high is centered over N Mexico near 24N106W. Northerly upper-
    level flow is over the W Gulf.

    The tropical wave formerly over the Bay of Campecheis is now
    confined to the E Pacific. Further N, a stationary front extends
    from E Texas near 30N93W to 25N94W. Scattered moderate convection
    is within 90 nm of the front.

    Expect the front to dissipate tonight. Scattered showers will
    persist over the NW Gulf however through Thursday. Gentle to
    moderate E to SE winds and seas 3 ft or less will prevail across
    most of the basin through the middle of the week. A surface
    trough will develop over the Yucatan peninsula each evening, shift
    W over the SW Gulf each night, then dissipate by the morning
    hours. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany this trough.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The eastern Pacific monsoon trough combined with diffluence aloft
    continues to enhance scattered moderate to strong convection over
    the SW Caribbean S of 12N between 78W-84W. Elsewhere, scattered
    showers are over the NW Caribbean W of 80W. Expect moderate to
    fresh winds to prevail over the central Caribbean through Friday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Currently, there are three tropical waves, and a subtropical
    storm over the Atlantic. See the sections above for details.

    A weakening stationary front is over the central Atlantic from
    31N40W to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 45 nm
    either side of the front.

    In the tropics, a surface trough is just E of the Leeward Islands
    from 18N57W to 12N60W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90
    nm of the trough. Elsewhere, visible satellite imagery shows a
    large area of dust over the tropical Atlantic from 07N-25N between
    34W-51W, moving W. This area of dust is basically surrounding the
    remnants of Kirk.

    The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface
    ridge, anchored by a 1029 mb high centered near 41N25W.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa

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