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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesEastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesSE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane StrikesNE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

WATCHING: 1 Area Of Interest

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Mon, 28 Sep 2020 05:00:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 280500
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean
    Sea in a few days. Thereafter, some gradual development is
    possible late this week while the system moves slowly
    west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 28 Sep 2020 10:13:01 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 281012
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Mon Sep 28 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...

    A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then
    reach the SE Gulf and Straits of Florida Wed evening. Behind the
    front, gale force N winds are expected Tue and Tue night over the
    west-central and SW Gulf of Mexico, mainly south of 26N and west
    of 95W. Seas are expected to build to 10-14 ft within the gale
    area by Tue morning. These conditions are expected to dissipate by
    early Wed. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast at
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    A tropical wave axis is along 33W from 02N-19N, moving W at 15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 33W-
    39W.

    A tropical wave axis is along 53W from 04N-19N, moving W at 10-15
    kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-15N between 48W-
    56W.

    An eastern Caribbean tropical wave axis is along 65W from 03N-
    17N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection
    is noted from 04N-20N between 60W-70W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W
    to 08N30W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 11N51W, then
    resumes west of a tropical wave from 12N54W to 11N62W. Besides
    the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered
    showers are noted along the boundary and east of 29W.

    Gulf of Mexico...

    Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning
    currently in effect for the southwest Gulf.

    A mid-level trough is located over the northern Gulf of Mexico
    from the Florida Panhandle to southern Texas. East of this
    trough, mid-level SW winds are transporting moist air from the
    Bay of Campeche to the central and NE Gulf. As a result, scattered
    moderate convection is noted across the south-central portion of
    the basin along 23N and 90W. To the southwest, a surface trough
    extends along 91W and south of 21N enhancing winds/convection
    over the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula. Recent ASCAT data
    depicts light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate
    to locally fresh S winds over the central and western portions.

    A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf this afternoon, then
    reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the Straits of Florida
    Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds are
    expected in the western half of the of the basin, with gale force
    winds west of 95W on Tue. A secondary front will drop southward to
    the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the far southwestern
    Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will build in behind
    this front. The pressure gradient between the front and a tropical
    wave that will approach the western Caribbean is expected to
    freshen the northeast winds over most of the southeastern Gulf on
    Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A tropical wave is moving over the E Caribbean. Please refer to
    the Tropical Waves section above for details.

    Scattered moderate convection is S of Cuba from 19N-22N between
    77W-83W. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
    enhancing scattered showers S of 11N. ASCAT data depicts moderate
    to fresh winds over the south-central Caribbean north of Colombia
    and over the Gulf of Honduras, while gentle to moderate trades
    prevail elsewhere. Fresh trades are also noted near the Lesser
    Antilles east of the tropical wave axis.

    Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
    increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds
    will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the
    northwestern Caribbean. The tropical wave will continue moving
    west across the basin enhancing convection/winds.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    moving across the basin.

    Over the western Atlantic, scattered moderate convection is N of
    the Bahamas north of 27N-30N between 75W-80W. A surface trough
    extends from 30N71W to 26N69W. Another trough extends from 30N59W
    to 26N58W. Neither of these troughs have significant convection at
    this time. Further E, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N44W to
    15N45W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the
    remainder of the basin.

    Over the W Atlantic, a cold front will reach the southeastern
    U.S. coast Tue night and move over the northwest part of the area
    through Wed. The front will begin to weaken as it reaches from
    near 31N74W to South Florida by Wed night and become stationary
    from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri
    night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of
    the cold front. Little change is expected elsewhere.

    $$
    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

  • Mon, 28 Sep 2020 05:00:43 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 280500
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A broad area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean
    Sea in a few days. Thereafter, some gradual development is
    possible late this week while the system moves slowly
    west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Blake
  • Mon, 28 Sep 2020 05:00:43 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 28 Sep 2020 10:13:02 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sun, 27 Sep 2020 13:03:14 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 271303
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     0905 AM EDT SUN 27 SEPTEMBER 2020
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
              TCPOD NUMBER.....20-124
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 28 Sep 2020 08:42:18 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 280744
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    344 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf by Mon afternoon,
    then quickly reach the southeastern Gulf waters Wed and the
    Straits of Florida Wed evening. In the wake of the front, strong
    northerly winds are expected in the western half of the basin,
    with gale force winds west of 95W on Tue. A secondary front will
    drop southward to the northern Gulf early on Fri and reach the
    far southwestern Gulf by Fri evening. Strong high pressure will
    build in behind this front. The pressure gradient between the
    front and a tropical wave that will approach the western
    Caribbean is expected to freshen the northeast winds over most
    of the southeastern Gulf on Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will
    increase to fresh to strong speeds by mid-week. Moderate winds
    will continue elsewhere, except for gentle winds over the
    northwestern Caribbean. A tropical wave currently located along
    64W...will continue moving west across the basin enhancing
    convection/winds.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over northeast Bahamas. A
    cold front will reach the southeastern U.S. coast Tue night and
    move over the northwest part of the area through Wed. The front
    will begin to weaken as it reaches from near 31N74W to South
    Florida by Wed night and become stationary from 31N73W to the
    Straits of Florida by late Thu through Fri night. Scattered
    showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front.


    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning tonight into Tue.
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning Tue into Tue night.
    .GMZ025...E BAY OF CAMPECHE INCLUDING CAMPECHE BANK...
    Gale Warning Tue.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster ERA. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Sep 2020 12:07:11 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011206
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    August was slightly above average in terms of the number of named
    storms that developed. Four named storms formed during the month,
    with two of them becoming hurricanes, including Hurricane Laura
    that intensified into a major hurricane. One tropical depression
    also formed at the end of the month offshore of the southeastern
    U.S. coast. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), three named
    storms typically form in the basin in August, with one or two of
    them becoming hurricanes, and one of them becoming a major
    hurricane.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
    in the basin so far in 2020 has also been above average, about 40
    percent above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 1-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul- 5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul- 1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    TD Fifteen 31 Aug- 35
    ---------------------------------------------------

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit