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ALERT: Active Storm Sebastien Atlantic Cyclone Activity
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ALERT: Active Storm Sebastien

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Atlantic Cyclone Activity

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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 17:38:10 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 191737
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
    formed Tropical Storm Sebastien, located a a few hundred miles
    northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Latto

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 19:07:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected) - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) (corrected)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 191907 CCA
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    207 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1745 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    As of 1500 UTC, Tropical Storm Sebastien has formed and it is
    expected to remain over open waters. Sebastein is located near
    20.1N 58.7W or about 275 nm NE of the Leeward Islands, moving
    toward the NNW at about 7 kt. Estimated central pressure is 1008
    mb. The maximum sustained winds are near 40 kt with gusts up to 50
    kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 250 nm
    SE of the center and scattered moderate convection 200 nm NE of
    the low. ASCAT show gale force winds in the NE quad from 18N-21N
    between 55W-59W. A turn to the north is expected on Wednesday
    followed by a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward
    speed Wednesday night. Some slight strengthening is possible over
    the next day or so. Sebastien is expected to become absorbed by a
    cold front in a couple of days. See latest NHC Forecast/Advisory
    under AWIPS/WMO header MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W from 12N southward,
    moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
    convection is from 00N-06N between 34W-44W.

    A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 19N southward,
    moving W at 5-10 kt. Isolated showers are along the wave axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Sierra Leone
    near 07N12W to 05N15W. The ITCZ extends from 05N15W to 02N23W to
    02N33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02S-09N
    between 13W-33W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Two 1015 mb surface high is over the southwestern Gulf, near
    23N92W. Weak surface ridging covers most of the Gulf, along with
    relatively dry air. Scatterometer show the light to moderate
    winds across the basin with no significant convection noted at
    this time. Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will shift NE
    through Wed. Fresh to strong SE return flow will develop over the
    NW Gulf Wed through Thu. A cold front will move off the Texas
    coast late Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds Fri
    night into Sat. The front will rapidly move across the basin, and
    begin to weaken as it reaches the far SE Gulf Sat night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A stationary front passes through the Atlantic Ocean, from 31N65W
    to the Windward Passage near 19N74W. A surface trough continues
    to the eastern coast of Jamaica to 18N76W to 14N80W. Scattered
    moderate convection remains to the north of the Windward Passage
    while scattered showers extend 60 nm on either side of the trough.
    Broken multilayered clouds and scattered showers are to the west
    and northwest of the surface trough. ASCAT shows light east winds
    across the central Caribbean and light to moderate northerly wind
    in the NW Caribbean Sea.

    Tropical Storm Sebastien will move to 21.0N 59.2W this evening,
    22.2N 60.0W Wed morning, then continue moving northward away from
    the area. Elsewhere, a weak trough extending from the Windward
    Passage across eastern Jamaica and into the SW Caribbean will
    dissipate tonight. A tropical wave will weaken late tonight into
    Wed as it moves across the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE
    winds will prevail through the Windward Passage Wed night through
    Fri.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    See the Special Features section above for information on Tropical
    Storm Sebastien.

    A surface trough extends from 28N67W to near 22N73W in the SE
    Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted
    along the trough axis. Further E, a stationary front passes
    through the Atlantic Ocean, from 31N65W to the Windward Passage
    near 19N74W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
    along the front from the Windward Passage near 19N73W to 24N68W.
    Surface high pressure ridging covers the Atlantic elsewhere east
    of 55W, anchored by a 1030 mb high near 32N38W. ASCAT support
    moderate to fresh east to southeast wind cover the Atlantic from
    12N-28N between 18W-62W.

    The stationary front is expected to dissipate later today or
    tonight. Another forming cold front will quickly move across the
    northern waters tonight through Wed night, with fresh to strong W
    to NW winds developing behind the front. Sebastien will become
    merged into the frontal system by Thu night. High pressure will
    build across the northern waters Thu through Sat. Yet another cold
    front may move off the NE Florida coast late Sat night.

    $$
    NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

Active Tropical Systems

  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:36:03 +0000: Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 192035
    TCDAT5
    
    Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
    500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019
    
    The low-level center of Sebastien has been exposed over the past
    several hours, as northwesterly shear of 20-30 kt has been pushing
    any deep convection off to the southeastern portion of the cyclone.
    The initial advisory intensity is being held at 40 kt and is based
    on an earlier scatterometer pass that sampled maximum winds of
    39 kt.
    
    The initial motion is 305/10 kt. Sebastien is forecast to be steered
    to the northwest around a deep-layer ridge over the central Atlantic
    through tonight. By Wednesday, the cyclone should turn to the north,
    and then accelerate northeastward Wednesday night as the cyclone
    gets caught up in the flow between the retreating ridge and ahead of
    an approaching cold front. The model guidance remains in good
    agreement on this scenario, and the official forecast track keeps
    the cyclone over open waters for the duration of its existence.
    
    The shear is not expected to decrease much over the next couple
    days while the system remains a tropical cyclone. There may be an
    opportunity for some strengthening Wednesday and Wednesday night as
    Sebastien turns to the north and northeast and resides under some
    favorable upper-level diffluence. By 48 hours, Sebastien is expected
    to transition to an extratropical cyclone just ahead of an
    approaching cold front. Therefore, additional strengthening
    indicated beyond 36 hours should be due to baroclinic processes. The
    cyclone should then become absorbed by the cold front by late this
    week. The official forecast was adjusted slightly higher from the
    previous one at 36 and 48 hours to reflect the anticipated
    intensification of the system as it begins its extratropical
    transition.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  19/2100Z 20.6N  59.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
     12H  20/0600Z 21.3N  60.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
     24H  20/1800Z 22.6N  61.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
     36H  21/0600Z 24.2N  61.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
     48H  21/1800Z 26.0N  58.9W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
     72H  22/1800Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    Forecaster Latto
    
    
  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:35:33 +0000: Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics - NHC Atlantic
    Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:35:33 GMT

    Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 19 Nov 2019 21:24:21 GMT
  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:35:15 +0000: Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019
    
    000
    FONT15 KNHC 192034
    PWSAT5
                                                                        
    TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2        
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL202019               
    2100 UTC TUE NOV 19 2019                                            
                                                                        
    AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR    
    LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
    WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                               
                                                                        
    Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
       ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
       CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                        
    WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                        
    CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
       ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
       ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
       ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
    FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
        OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
            AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
       (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
            18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                        
    PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
    X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
    THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
    PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
    64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                        
                                                                        
      - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                        
                   FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
      TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
    PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
                 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                        
    FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
    LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                        
    $$                                                                  
    FORECASTER LATTO                                                    
    
  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:34:37 +0000: Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019) - NHC Atlantic
    ...SEBASTIEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Tue Nov 19 the center of Sebastien was located near 20.6, -59.7 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 20:34:37 +0000: Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 2 - NHC Atlantic
    Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019
    
    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 192034
    TCPAT5
    
    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number   2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202019
    500 PM AST Tue Nov 19 2019
    
    ...SEBASTIEN CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
    ...EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY...
    
    
    SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...20.6N 59.7W
    ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
    
    
    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
    
    
    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was
    located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 59.7 West. Sebastien is
    moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to
    the north is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to the
    northeast with an increase in forward speed Wednesday night.
    
    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Sebastien
    is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple
    of days and will then be absorbed by a cold front late this
    week.
    
    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
    from the center.
    
    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
    
    
    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    None
    
    
    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
    
    $$
    Forecaster Latto
    
    

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 15:15:00 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 191514
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1015 AM EST TUE 19 NOVEMBER 2019
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z NOVEMBER 2019
              TCPOD NUMBER.....19-175
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Tue, 19 Nov 2019 18:01:03 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 191800
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Tue Nov 19 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weak high pressure over the western Gulf will shift NE through
    Wed. Fresh to strong SE return flow will develop over the NW
    Gulf Wed through Thu. A cold front will move off the Texas coast
    late Fri, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds Fri night
    into Sat. The front will rapidly move across the basin, and
    begin to weaken as it reaches the far SE Gulf Sat night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Tropical Storm Sebastien is centered near 20.1N 58.7W 1008 mb at
    10 AM EST moving NNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
    gusts 50 kt. Sebastien will move to 21.0N 59.2W this evening,
    22.2N 60.0W Wed morning, then continue moving northward away
    from the area. Elsewhere, a weak trough extending from the
    Windward Passage across eastern Jamaica and into the SW
    Caribbean will dissipate tonight. A tropical wave with axis near
    71W will weaken late tonight into Wed as it moves across the
    central Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds will prevail through
    the Windward Passage Wed night through Fri.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    Tropical Storm Sebastien is centered near 20.1N 58.7W 1008 mb at
    10 AM EST moving NNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt
    gusts 50 kt. Sebastien will move to 21.0N 59.2W this evening,
    22.2N 60.0W Wed morning, then continue moving northward away from
    the area. Elsewhere, a stationary front extends from near 31N65W
    to 27N66W to near the Windward Passage. This front is expected
    to dissipate later today or tonight. Another forming cold front
    will quickly move across the northern waters tonight through Wed
    night, with fresh to strong W to NW winds developing behind the
    front. Sebastien will become merged into the frontal system by
    Thu night. High pressure will build across the northern waters
    Thu through Sat. Yet another cold front may move off the NE
    Florida coast late Sat night.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...
    Tropical Storm Warning today into Wed.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Reinhart. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Fri, 01 Nov 2019 11:50:08 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011150
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Fri Nov 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity during October was slightly above normal
    for the Atlantic basin. Five named storms formed during the month
    and one of them became a hurricane. Another hurricane, Lorenzo,
    carried over from the month of September. One tropical depression
    also formed and failed to strengthen. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in
    October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane
    forms in the basin in October about every third year.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
    activity in the Atlantic basin in October was a little below average
    for the month. For the entire 2019 season, ACE is well above the
    long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40*
    H Barry 11-15 Jul 75
    TD Three 22-23 Jul 35*
    TS Chantal 21-23 Aug 40
    MH Dorian 24 Aug- 7 Sep 185
    TS Erin 26-29 Aug 40
    TS Fernand 3- 4 Sep 50
    TS Gabrielle 3-10 Sep 60
    MH Humberto 13-19 Sep 125
    TS Imelda 17-19 Sep 40
    H Jerry 17-25 Sep 105
    TS Karen 22-27 Sep 45
    MH Lorenzo 22 Sep- 2 Oct 160
    TS Melissa 11-14 Oct 65
    TD Fifteen 14-16 Oct 35
    TS Nestor 18-19 Oct 60
    TS Olga 25 Oct 40
    H Pablo 25-28 Oct 80
    STS Rebekah 30 Oct- 1 Nov 45
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit