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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


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Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 18 Jan 2018 12:48:31 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 181248
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    705 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1145 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Atlantic Gale Warning...

    The low pressure currently located east of the N Carolina's coast
    will continue to move eastward into the western Atlantic Ocean
    while deepening. Gale-force winds associated with this low
    pressure system have developed north of 30N within 180 nm west of
    a cold front that extends from the low to 30N73W SW across the
    northern Bahamas to the Florida Straits and then into the Yucatan
    Peninsula. Winds will diminish below gale force tonight. However,
    near gale-force winds will prevail through early Friday morning
    as the front weaken southeast of the Bahamas. Please read the
    latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
    MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, and the latest NHC Offshore Waters
    Forecast, MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC, for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 06N11W and
    continues to 02N16W. The ITCZ begins near 06N16W and continues
    along 0N30W to 02N40W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection
    is observed from 02N to 07N between 07W and 15W and from 0N to
    05N between 28W and 48W.

    ...DISCUSSION...

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface ridge has established across the Gulf in the wake of
    the cold front that currently extends across the SW N Atlc to
    the Florida Straits to the eastern Yucatan Peninsula.
    Scatterometer data depicts fresh to locally strong northerly
    winds across the basin. Winds will slightly weaken as the
    pressure gradient relaxes across the basin during the next 24
    hours. Fresh to locally strong southerly flow will set-up again
    across the western Gulf and persist early this weekend ahead on
    the next cold front forecast to reach the Texas coast Sunday
    night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The remnants of a stationary front were analyzed as a surface
    trough that extends across the western Caribbean from 19N85W to
    12N82W. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and
    thunderstorms are noted west of 80W with this trough affecting
    the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Patches of low-level
    moisture carried by the trade wind flow are seen across the
    remainder of the Caribbean Sea inducing showers. Moderate to
    fresh northeast winds are seen in the lee of Cuba, and within
    about 60 nm of the coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong winds are
    near the coast of Colombia. The cold front currently moving
    across the Gulf of Mexico will reach the northwest Caribbean
    this morning, then extend from central Cuba to Honduras by
    tonight. Fresh to strong winds and widespread showers are
    expected behind the front. Strong trade winds will pulse near
    the coast of Colombia coast on Friday night and then expand
    across much of the central Caribbean over the weekend as high
    pressure builds north of the area.

    ...HISPANIOLA...

    Relatively dry weather with partly cloudy skies and isolated
    showers will prevail for the next day or so over the island due
    to the influence of a ridge. Computer models show an increasing
    of moisture across Hispaniola toward the end of the work-week
    as a cold front approaches from the west. Fresh northeast winds
    are expected across the Windward Passage today through Saturday
    night as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic in the
    wake of the above mentioned front.

    ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A strong cold front is moving across the west Atlantic from
    31N77W to 28N80W. See the Special Features section for more
    details about this front and the Gale Warning in effect. To the
    east, a forming cold front has developed extending from a 1014
    mb surface low near 34N73W to 24N75W. Scattered showers are
    noted in the vicinity of these features mainly west of 70W. A
    surface trough extends from 30N65W to 25N65W with minimal
    convection at this time. An upper-level low is reflected at the
    surface as a trough that extends from 31N50W to a 1021 mb low
    near 28N47W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
    north of 25N between 36W- 46W. The strong high pressure near
    Azores dominates most of the east and central Atlantic, and will
    move little through this weekend.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Ramos

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