Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tue, 21 May 2019 05:04:39 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 210504
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
  Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
  
  Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
  June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
  Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.
  
  &&
  
  Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
  header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
  Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
  header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Stewart
  

• Fri, 24 May 2019 17:20:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  000
  AXNT20 KNHC 241720
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  120 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1715 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...
  
  A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
  across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across
  portions of Central America over the next several days. This
  activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
  in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local
  meteorological service for more details.
  
  ...TROPICAL WAVES...
  
  An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 14N
  southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated
  with the wave are noted south of 06N between 39W-44W.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W
  to 05N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N36W, then
  continues west of a tropical wave from 03N40W to the coast of
  Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
  tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate with
  embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between
  08W-23W. Farther west, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between
  52W-59W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  Surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE U.S. and
  across most of the basin with fair weather. Latest ASCAT data
  shows gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across the
  Gulf waters. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the
  western Gulf mainly west of 93W with some observations near the
  coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies.
  
  High pressure will continue to maintain return flow across the
  basin through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
  occur at night in the SW Gulf through the weekend associated with
  a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. On Sunday, the
  pressure gradient over the region will diminish, thus resulting
  in mainly moderate to locally fresh winds continuing through the
  middle of the week. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
  maintain hazy skies generally within 120 nm of the eastern coast
  of Mexico over the next few days.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Currently, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
  over the south central Caribbean related to the Central American
  Gyre that is developing. This activity extends south of 15N
  between 75W-84W. See the section above for more details on the
  excessive rainfall threat over Central America.
  
  Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the basin
  mainly north of 15N and east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts
  moderate trades prevailing across the basin at this time.
  
  Ridging north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh
  trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
  pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific
  waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms
  over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These
  showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a
  developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward.
  Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
  Monday evening.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave,
  currently moving across the central Atlantic.
  
  A 1021 mb surface high is near 31N78W. To the east, a frontal
  system enters the central Atlantic waters as a stationary front
  from 31N45W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the
  front. A surface trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola from
  24N66W to 20N72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
  of the basin.
  
  The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. High
  pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today ahead of
  a cold front that will move south of 30N by Sat. The front will
  slowly move south and stall along 25N by late Sun then dissipate.
  A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front by early
  next week.
  
  For additional information please
  visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  ERA
  

• Wed, 22 May 2019 17:04:39 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Tue, 21 May 2019 14:00:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 211400
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1000 AM EDT TUE 21 MAY 2019
   SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
            VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z MAY 2019
            TCPOD NUMBER.....19-003
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
       3. REMARK: ALL TASKING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
          CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/1145Z.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   NOTE:  THIS WILL BE THE LAST TCPOD UNTIL 1 JUNE UNLESS CONDITIONS
          DICTATE OTHERWISE.
   
   $$
   WJM
   
   NNNN
   

• Fri, 24 May 2019 18:41:54 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 241841
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  241 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure over the southeast U.S. will persist through early
  next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the
  northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at
  night in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough
  moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern
  Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally within 90 nm of the
  eastern coast of Mexico the next few days.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  Ridging north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
  fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
  pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific
  waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms
  over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These
  showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a
  developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward.
  Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
  Monday evening.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A stationary front along 25N will dissipate through tonight.
  High pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today
  ahead of a cold front moving south of 30N Sat. The front will
  slowly move south and stall along 23N by late Sun then
  dissipate. A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front
  early next week.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Sat, 01 Dec 2018 05:13:27 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 010513
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EDT Sat Dec 1 2018
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  No tropical cyclones occurred in the basin during November, which is
  not uncommon since a November tropical storm occurs about once every
  other year.
  
  Overall, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
  activity. Fifteen named storms formed, of which eight became
  hurricanes and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on
  the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
  long-term average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major
  hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
  reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
  Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of
  tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in
  2018 was also above normal. In addition, 7 systems were
  subtropical at some point in their lifetime this season, which
  eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl .
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Alberto 25-31 May 65*
  H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80*
  H Chris 6-12 Jul 105
  TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50
  TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45
  MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140
  TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70
  H Helene 7-16 Sep 110
  H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75
  TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45
  TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35
  TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60
  H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90
  MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155
  TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65
  H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit