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2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 17:45:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
333
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along
27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E
winds strong to near-gale force winds today, pulsing to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong
to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to
14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N,
moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed along the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 50W and 57W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W
to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from 09N to 14N east of 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf
during the past 48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, and a
weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. The
upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in
scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters,
N of 23N and E of 87W. These storms can produce gusty winds,
frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should
exercise caution across this area. This system has a medium formation
chance through 7 days. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered
south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate NW
winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh E winds over the
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail.
For the forecast, a low offshore Florida will drift north over
the next few days, bringing thunderstorms with heavy rain to the
eastern Gulf. There is a low chance of tropical formation with
this system. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate,
producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight.
The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29.5N57W in the
central Atlantic extends westward to the Bahamas, and is forcing
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed
peak winds of 30 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 14 ft are found
in these waters. Fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present
in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers are
found across the SE Caribbean waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
this weekend in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic
supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 35W and 50W.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central
Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to the Bahamas, and
sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south
of 25N and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 52W
and the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and
east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of
4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge axis that extends along 27N-28N will gradually weaken and
drift northward this weekend as a broad surface trough forms E of
50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds
to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings
this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
$$
KRV
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 17:45:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
333
AXNT20 KNHC 181745
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the
western Atlantic high pressure ridge north of the basin along
27N-28N, and the Colombian low will continue to support NE to E
winds strong to near-gale force winds today, pulsing to gale-
force across the waters N of Colombia tonight. Otherwise, strong
to near- gale force trade winds and rough seas will prevail across
the much of the central Caribbean into early Mon before
contracting to south of 15N. Rough to very rough seas in the 12 to
14 ft range will develop during the times of peak winds.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30W, south of 19N,
moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is
observed along the wave axis.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 10N between 50W and 57W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16.5W and
continues southwestward to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W
to 07N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
present from 09N to 14N east of 23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Upper level low pressure across Florida and the far eastern Gulf
during the past 48 hours extends into the lower atmosphere, and a
weak surface trough is now across the Gulf along 83W-84W. The
upper low and abundant low level moisture are resulting in
scattered strong showers and thunderstorms over the E Gulf waters,
N of 23N and E of 87W. These storms can produce gusty winds,
frequent lightning and suddenly higher seas. Mariners should
exercise caution across this area. This system has a medium formation
chance through 7 days. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure centered
south of Louisiana dominates the basin, supporting moderate NW
winds west of the trough and moderate to fresh E winds over the
Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas
prevail.
For the forecast, a low offshore Florida will drift north over
the next few days, bringing thunderstorms with heavy rain to the
eastern Gulf. There is a low chance of tropical formation with
this system. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will dominate,
producing gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
through the period.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia. Please refer to the Special Features
section for more details. Winds are expected to peak to gale force
tonight.
The 1025 mb subtropical ridge centered near 29.5N57W in the
central Atlantic extends westward to the Bahamas, and is forcing
strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the central
Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed
peak winds of 30 kt. Rough to very rough seas to 14 ft are found
in these waters. Fresh E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present
in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers are
found across the SE Caribbean waters.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure ridge axis oriented along 27N-28N and the Colombian low
will support NE winds pulsing to gale-force across the waters N of
Colombia early tonight. Otherwise, strong to near- gale force
trade winds and rough seas will prevail across the much of the
central Caribbean into early Mon, before contracting to south of
15N. East winds will pulse fresh to locally strong each evening
this weekend in the Windward Passage.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak surface trough in the north-central tropical Atlantic
supports isolated showers north of 25N and between 35W and 50W.
Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge centered over the central
Atlantic extends westward along 27N-28N to the Bahamas, and
sustains moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft south
of 25N and west of 35W, with highest winds and seas between 52W
and the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted north of the monsoon trough and
east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and seas of
4-7 ft are evident south of the monsoon trough and east of 35W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.
For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic subtropical
ridge axis that extends along 27N-28N will gradually weaken and
drift northward this weekend as a broad surface trough forms E of
50W. This trough will shift westward and reach 65W by Wed.
Moderate to fresh trades will prevail S of 24N, with gentle winds
to the N. Pulsing strong winds are expected during the evenings
this weekend N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage.
$$
KRV
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 20 Jul 2026 05:17:44 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Sat, 18 Jul 2026 18:25:27 GMT - Sat, 18 Jul 2026 17:17:44 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181717
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
surface low is forming over the eastern Gulf of America. However,
the associated winds remain light, and the showers and thunderstorms
are still disorganized. Gradual development of this system is
possible, and it could become a tropical depression while it moves
slowly northward or north-northwestward during the next few days.
Interests along the Florida Gulf coast, southern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia should monitor the progress of this system as
it is expected to bring heavy rain to portions of that region during
the next several days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Katz
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 18 Jul 2026 16:24:46 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 181624
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1225 PM EDT SAT 18 JULY 2026
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JULY 2026
TCPOD NUMBER.....26-048 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA - AL91)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 19/1800Z A. 20/0600Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 02AAA SURVEY
C. 19/1700Z C. 20/0500Z
D. 28.5N 85.0W D. 29.1N 85.1W
E. 19/1730Z TO 19/2230Z E. 20/0530Z TO 20/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. LOW-LEVEL INVEST G. SYSTEM SURVEY
H. WRA ACTIVATION H. WRA ACTIVATION
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 20/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 20/1030Z
D. 29.3N 85.2W
E. 20/1100Z TO 20/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. FIX
H. WRA ACTIVATION
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON AL91 IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf