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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 01 Dec 2020 14:54:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 011454
    TWOAT

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between
    the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less
    organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are
    expected to become less conducive for development as the system
    moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although
    subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue
    to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
    Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on
    this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
    France.

    This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on
    this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
    be issued as necessary during the off-season.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

    &&
    High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
    header FQNT50 LFPW.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 24 Jan 2021 10:19:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    878
    AXNT20 KNHC 241018
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1000 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
    Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
    support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
    coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
    generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
    ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
    High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
    website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
    details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
    05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
    04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
    between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
    This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
    Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
    N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
    Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
    front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
    coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
    Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
    waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
    region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.

    Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
    southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
    today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
    moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
    will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
    basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
    in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
    the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
    up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
    early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
    the Special Features section above for details.

    Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
    to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
    seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
    expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
    Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
    the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
    to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
    possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
    most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.

    Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
    additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
    Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
    Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.

    A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
    move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
    and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
    in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
    front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
    by fresh to strong northerly winds.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
    31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
    a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
    and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
    southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
    21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
    South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
    23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.

    A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
    27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
    force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
    55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
    seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
    Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
    Florida Mon into Tue.

    A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
    the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
    through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
    are likely with this system.

    The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
    of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
    of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
    southern periphery of the ridge.

    $$
    GR

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sat, 23 Jan 2021 17:33:10 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 231733
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1235 PM EST SAT 23 JANUARY 2021
     SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JANUARY 2021
              WSPOD NUMBER.....20-054
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
            A. 25/0000Z
            B. NOAA9 04WSC IOP05
            C. 24/1900Z
            D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY
               25.0N 179.0W, 25.0N 160.0W, 45.0N 160.0W, AND 45.0 179.0W
            E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/2030Z-25/0230Z
     
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA
            G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
            MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 26/0000Z
            SYNOPTIC TIME. 
         3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA
            G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO MORE CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
            MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 27/0000Z
            SYNOPTIC TIME.
         4. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIME FOR TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV MISSION
            TASKED IN WSPOD 20-053 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 23/2000Z.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 24 Jan 2021 03:37:52 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 240337
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1037 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal
    waters. The front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front
    through the weekend. Some fog is expected N of the boundary.
    High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing
    southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge
    will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western
    Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced
    and progress eastward across the basin into Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    High pressure due north of the Caribbean will continue to
    support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean,
    with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early
    morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate
    to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to
    strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell
    will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters Mon night
    into Thu night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu
    night.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front from 26N65W to near Melbourne, Florida, will sag S
    to along 24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning.
    Another cold front will slide across NE waters Sun and Mon. A
    stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
    the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
    through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large
    seas are likely with this system.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
    INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
    Gale Warning tonight.
    Gale Warning Sun night into Mon night.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu.
    .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
    .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011251
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
    during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
    the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
    hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
    hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
    made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
    location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
    storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
    hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
    seven to eight years.

    Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
    with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
    named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
    becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
    average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
    storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
    percent above the long-term mean.

    A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
    2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
    producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
    Carolina.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
    TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
    H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
    TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
    H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
    MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
    TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
    TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
    SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
    TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
    TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
    MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
    MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
    H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
    MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
    TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
    MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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