Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Thu, 05 Nov 2020 17:31:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051731
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Thu, 25 Feb 2021 06:04:50 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 250604
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the
coastal waters of Colombia.
Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
feet to 12 feet, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W, in the
coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will
be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest
NWS high seas forecast from the
National Hurricane Center, at the website:
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
03N20W, to 02N26W, and to 01N32W. Precipitation: Isolated
moderate to locally strong covers the areas that are from 08N
southward from 60W eastward. Rainshowers are possible,
elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A surface trough extends from 22N88W off the coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula, across the NW corner of the Yucatan
Peninsula, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.
A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
is near 28N84W, to 27N92W, 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W.
Weak surface ridging, building across the northern Gulf of
Mexico, will persist through Friday, then move northward. Gentle
to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf of
Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. Sea fog is possible in the NW
Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday, and persisting into early next
week.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation
center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near
11N76W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind
flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500
mb, shows cyclonic wind flow from 68W eastward, with an
east-to-west oriented trough. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
rest of the area, with a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. The GFS model
for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, with a trough that runs
from northern Colombia to the Windward Channel and SE Cuba.
Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea.
Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
wind flow.
A surface trough is along 12N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
07N78W at the coast of Colombia, about 30 nm to the south of the
Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is about 45 nm to
the SE of the surface trough, near 06N77W, at the coast of
Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea.
Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 11N to 17N
between 67W and 80W.
The Bermuda High to the north of the region will support fresh
to strong E trade winds in the central and eastern sections of
the Caribbean Sea, through at least Monday night, with winds
pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia mainly during
the overnight and early morning
hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage
tonight, persisting through Monday. Fresh to strong E trade
winds should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly, beginning
on Saturday night. N swell, with E wind waves, is producing
combined seas to 10 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the
east of the Windward Islands. These conditions will prevail
through Monday.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N52W, 28N60W 26N70W, to
26N75W. A surface trough continues from 26N75W, to the coast of
SE Florida between Delray Beach and Boynton Beach.
Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the surface trough
to 30N from 77W westward.
Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
locally strong are from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Other
rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from the cold front
and surface trough, northward.
A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean,
passes through 32N14W, the Canary Islands, to 27N20W and 25N29W.
A shear line continues from 25N29W, to 24N38W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
are from 20N northward from 40W eastward.
A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 38N24W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the cold
front/shear line, northward.
The current cold front, extending from 27N65W to the northern
Bahamas, is starting to stall, and it will dissipate through
early Thursday morning. Another weak cold front will move from
west to east, across the waters to the north of 28N, on Thursday
and Friday. High pressure, building to the north of the area
behind the second front, will support fresh to strong E winds
across the waters that are to the south of 22N, from late Friday
through at least Monday night. N swell, combined with E wind
waves in the area, will produce combined seas of about 8-9 ft on
Sunday and Monday.
$$
mt/ec
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 03 Dec 2020 02:54:54 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Wed, 04 Nov 2020 16:14:39 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 041614 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EST WED 04 NOVEMBER 2020 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020 TCPOD NUMBER.....20-162 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR 17.5N 87.3W FOR 06/1800Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. NOTE: THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Thu, 05 Nov 2020 15:16:26 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 051516
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1016 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...GULF OF MEXICO...
Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and
21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending
into the region from the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to
strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin through Sun.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida
Sun night and Mon.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and
21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as
it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center of Eta is
expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is
forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central
Cuba this weekend.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening,
and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in
intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center
of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by
tonight, and will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Fri
in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of
70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical storm conditions are
possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun night and Mon. Large
seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Mon.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING
CAYMAN BASIN...
Tropical Storm Warning Fri night into Sat.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:49:30 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011149
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
October was quite busy with five tropical cyclones developing during
the month. All five systems were named -- Gamma, Delta, Epsilon,
Zeta, and Eta -- although Eta had become a tropical depression on
October 31 and then was named early on November 1 (UTC time).
Three of the storms became hurricanes with two, Delta and Epsilon,
reaching major hurricane strength. Based on a 30-year climatology
(1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in
October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane
forms in the basin in October about once every three years.
In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
in the basin so far in 2020 has been well above average, more than
40 percent above the long-term mean.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
TS Eta 31 Oct- 40
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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