End Of The 2019 Hurricane Season
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2019 Hurricane Season Names:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

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Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

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Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

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[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
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Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Tue, 21 May 2019 05:04:39 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 210504
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    200 AM EDT Tue May 21 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Subtropical
    Storm Andrea, located about 300 hundred miles southwest of Bermuda.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on
    June 1, 2019. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather
    Outlooks will be issued as conditions warrant.

    &&

    Public Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
    header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
    Forecast/Advisories on Subtropical Storm Andrea are issued under WMO
    header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 24 May 2019 17:20:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 241720
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    120 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...

    A Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture
    across Central America, which will produce heavy rainfall across
    portions of Central America over the next several days. This
    activity could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides
    in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to your local
    meteorological service for more details.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 14N
    southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers associated
    with the wave are noted south of 06N between 39W-44W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 08N13W
    to 05N17W to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 03N36W, then
    continues west of a tropical wave from 03N40W to the coast of
    Brazil near 01N50W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the
    tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate with
    embedded isolated strong convection is noted from 02N-09N between
    08W-23W. Farther west, scattered showers are from 07N-10N between
    52W-59W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridge extends from the west Atlantic into the SE U.S. and
    across most of the basin with fair weather. Latest ASCAT data
    shows gentle to moderate easterly winds prevailing across the
    Gulf waters. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the
    western Gulf mainly west of 93W with some observations near the
    coast of Mexico reporting hazy skies.

    High pressure will continue to maintain return flow across the
    basin through early next week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will
    occur at night in the SW Gulf through the weekend associated with
    a surface trough moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. On Sunday, the
    pressure gradient over the region will diminish, thus resulting
    in mainly moderate to locally fresh winds continuing through the
    middle of the week. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will
    maintain hazy skies generally within 120 nm of the eastern coast
    of Mexico over the next few days.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Currently, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted
    over the south central Caribbean related to the Central American
    Gyre that is developing. This activity extends south of 15N
    between 75W-84W. See the section above for more details on the
    excessive rainfall threat over Central America.

    Scattered showers are noted over the northern portion of the basin
    mainly north of 15N and east of 80W. Scatterometer data depicts
    moderate trades prevailing across the basin at this time.

    Ridging north of the area will support moderate to locally fresh
    trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
    pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific
    waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms
    over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These
    showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a
    developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward.
    Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
    Monday evening.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details about the tropical wave,
    currently moving across the central Atlantic.

    A 1021 mb surface high is near 31N78W. To the east, a frontal
    system enters the central Atlantic waters as a stationary front
    from 31N45W to 25N75W. Scattered showers are noted along the
    front. A surface trough is analyzed north of Hispaniola from
    24N66W to 20N72W. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder
    of the basin.

    The stationary front will dissipate through tonight. High
    pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today ahead of
    a cold front that will move south of 30N by Sat. The front will
    slowly move south and stall along 25N by late Sun then dissipate.
    A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front by early
    next week.

    For additional information please
    visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Tue, 21 May 2019 14:00:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 211400
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1000 AM EDT TUE 21 MAY 2019
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z MAY 2019
              TCPOD NUMBER.....19-003
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
         3. REMARK: ALL TASKING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
            CANCELED BY NHC AT 21/1145Z.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THIS WILL BE THE LAST TCPOD UNTIL 1 JUNE UNLESS CONDITIONS
            DICTATE OTHERWISE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 24 May 2019 18:41:54 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 241841
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    241 PM EDT Fri May 24 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure over the southeast U.S. will persist through early
    next week, maintaining moderate to fresh SE flow over the
    northwest Gulf. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will occur at
    night in the SW Gulf as well associated with a surface trough
    moving off the Yucatan Peninsula. Smoke from fires in southern
    Mexico will maintain hazy skies generally within 90 nm of the
    eastern coast of Mexico the next few days.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Ridging north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
    fresh trades across the basin through early next week. Broad low
    pressure across Central America and adjacent eastern Pacific
    waters will continue to generate heavy showers and thunderstorms
    over the SW Caribbean through the middle of the week. These
    showers will extend to the NW Caribbean waters on Tue as a
    developing low off the coast of Nicaragua tracks northwestward.
    Otherwise, a tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles
    Monday evening.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A stationary front along 25N will dissipate through tonight.
    High pressure off northeast Florida will dissipate late today
    ahead of a cold front moving south of 30N Sat. The front will
    slowly move south and stall along 23N by late Sun then
    dissipate. A ridge will build along 29N in the wake of the front
    early next week.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sat, 01 Dec 2018 05:13:27 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010513
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Dec 1 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones occurred in the basin during November, which is
    not uncommon since a November tropical storm occurs about once every
    other year.

    Overall, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Fifteen named storms formed, of which eight became
    hurricanes and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of
    tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in
    2018 was also above normal. In addition, 7 systems were
    subtropical at some point in their lifetime this season, which
    eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl .

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alberto 25-31 May 65*
    H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80*
    H Chris 6-12 Jul 105
    TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50
    TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45
    MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140
    TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70
    H Helene 7-16 Sep 110
    H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75
    TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45
    TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35
    TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60
    H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90
    MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155
    TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65
    H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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