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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had a record breaking 30 named storms this season, 13 developed into hurricanes, and six further intensified into major hurricanes!

2020 Season Storms... Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred, Alpha , Beta , Gamma , Delta , Epsilon , Zeta , Eta and Iota!!!! WHAT A SEASON #2020!!!!
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Thu, 05 Nov 2020 17:31:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 051731
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 05 Nov 2020 17:32:58 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 051732
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1805 UTC Thu Nov 5 2020

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1715 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    Tropical Depression ETA continues to produce heavy rains and
    life-threatening flooding to sections of Central America. The
    center of Tropical Depression Eta, at 05/1500 UTC, is inland
    over Honduras near 15.1N 87.8W. Eta is moving toward the NW, or
    305 degrees, at 8 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
    1005 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 25 kt with gusts to 35
    kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from Costa
    Rica to the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Caribbean waters
    mainly west of 77W. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is
    expected to move across northwestern Honduras through this
    afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight.
    Eta is forecast to intensify and approach the Cayman Islands
    and western or central Cuba this weekend.

    Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml, and the Forecast
    Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for
    more details. Rainfall may cause catastrophic, life-threatening
    flash flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in
    areas of higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and
    river flooding are possible in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala,
    Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, and southeastern Mexico.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 44W from 02N-
    16N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
    noted in the vicinity of the wave mainly south of 10N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave wit axis along 58W, from 14N
    southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are
    noted
    along the wave's axis.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal
    near 16N17W to 13N22W. The ITCZ continues from 13N22W to 06N41W.
    Scattered showers prevail south of the boundaries between
    10W-25W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a high
    pressure centered over the west Atlantic. over the western
    Gulf, scatterometer data depicted a surface trough that extends
    from 29N94W to 22N94W. To the southeast, a shearline is analyzed
    from 24N80W to 22N87W. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted
    across most of the basin south of 27N, while gentle to moderate
    winds prevail elsewhere.

    Strong high pressure will maintain fresh to strong NE winds in
    the southeastern half of the basin, through early Friday. The
    wind speeds will remain fresh to strong in the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico during the upcoming weekend. T.D. Eta will move inland to
    15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W
    Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat
    morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning.
    Eta will change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N
    80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending into the region from
    the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong NE winds over
    the eastern half of the basin through Sun. Tropical storm
    conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida Sun night and
    Mon.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Please refer to the section above for details on T.D Eta.

    Over the remainder of the basin, scatterometer data depicts
    gentle to moderate trades. A surface trough extends across west
    Hispaniola with scattered showers.

    Tropical Depression Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this
    evening, 16.8N 87.6W Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening,
    strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning,
    20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will
    change little in intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early
    Mon. The center of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of
    Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman
    Islands and western or central Cuba this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical
    waves moving across the basin.

    A shearline extends from 29N54W to 24N69W to 24N80W. Scattered
    moderate convection is noted along the shearline mainly west
    of 60W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 29N50W to
    24N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 25N
    between 46W-52W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

    The center of the now T.D. Eta is expected to emerge over the
    Gulf of Honduras by tonight, and will re-intensify into a
    tropical cyclone on Fri in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong
    winds are expected W of 70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical
    storm conditions are possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun
    night and Mon. Large seas are expected in the western Atlantic
    Sat through Mon.

    The shearline will dissipate within the next 24 hours. A cold
    front will enter the central Atlantic enhancing seas.

    $$
    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Wed, 31 Mar 2021 14:31:34 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
 000
 NOUS42 KNHC 311431
 REPRPD
 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
 CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
 1030 AM EDT WED 31 MARCH 2021
 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
          VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2021
          WSPOD NUMBER.....20-121
 
 I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
     1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
     2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
 
 NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS
        DICTATE OTHERWISE.
 
 $$
 WJM
 
 NNNN

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Fri, 07 May 2021 15:18:27 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 071518
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1118 AM EDT Fri May 7 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A cold front across the eastern Gulf will push southward east of
    90W through tonight. Moderate to fresh return flow is expected
    in the western and central Gulf this weekend. Hazy sky
    conditions due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico are
    likely across the SW Gulf for several more days.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge north of the area will support moderate trade winds over
    most of the basin through Sat. Stronger trades are likely across
    the central Caribbean Sun and Mon as high pressure builds to the
    north.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front extending from 31N75W to near Lake Okeechobee,
    Florida will move across south Florida later today. The
    northern part of the front will shift eastward across the
    northern waters through Sat night. A cold front will move south
    of 30N into the waters east of Florida Tue night.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011251
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
    during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
    the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
    hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
    hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
    made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
    location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
    storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
    hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
    seven to eight years.

    Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
    with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
    named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
    becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
    average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
    storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
    percent above the long-term mean.

    A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
    2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
    producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
    Carolina.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
    TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
    H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
    TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
    H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
    MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
    TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
    TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
    SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
    TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
    TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
    MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
    MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
    H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
    MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
    TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
    MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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