Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

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2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tue, 01 Dec 2020 14:54:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 011454
  TWOAT
  
  Special Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between
  the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less
  organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are
  expected to become less conducive for development as the system
  moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although
  subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue
  to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
  Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on
  this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
  France.
  
  This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on
  this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
  be issued as necessary during the off-season.
  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
  * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
  
  &&
  High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
  header FQNT50 LFPW.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  

• Sun, 24 Jan 2021 10:19:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  
  878
  AXNT20 KNHC 241018
  TWDAT
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
  
  Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
  Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
  America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
  Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
  imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
  
  Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
  1000 UTC.
  
  ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
  
  Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
  Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
  support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
  coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
  generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
  ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
  High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
  website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
  details.
  
  ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
  
  The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
  05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
  04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
  between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.
  
  GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
  This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
  Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
  N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
  Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
  front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
  coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
  Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
  waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
  region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.
  
  Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
  southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
  today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
  moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
  will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
  basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
  in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
  the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
  up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.
  
  CARIBBEAN SEA...
  
  Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
  early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
  the Special Features section above for details.
  
  Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
  to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
  seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
  expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
  Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
  the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
  to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
  possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
  most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.
  
  Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
  additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
  Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
  Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.
  
  A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
  move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
  and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
  in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
  front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
  by fresh to strong northerly winds.
  
  ATLANTIC OCEAN...
  
  A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
  31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
  a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
  and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
  southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
  21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
  South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
  23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.
  
  A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
  27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
  force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
  55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
  seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
  Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
  Florida Mon into Tue.
  
  A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
  the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
  through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
  are likely with this system.
  
  The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
  of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
  of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
  southern periphery of the ridge.
  
  $$
  GR
  
  

• Thu, 03 Dec 2020 02:54:54 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Sat, 23 Jan 2021 17:33:10 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

   
   000
   NOUS42 KNHC 231733
   REPRPD
   WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
   CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
   1235 PM EST SAT 23 JANUARY 2021
   SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
            VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JANUARY 2021
            WSPOD NUMBER.....20-054
   
   I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
   
   II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
       1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
          A. 25/0000Z
          B. NOAA9 04WSC IOP05
          C. 24/1900Z
          D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY
             25.0N 179.0W, 25.0N 160.0W, 45.0N 160.0W, AND 45.0 179.0W
          E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/2030Z-25/0230Z
   
       2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA
          G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
          MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 26/0000Z
          SYNOPTIC TIME. 
       3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA
          G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO MORE CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
          MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 27/0000Z
          SYNOPTIC TIME.
       4. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIME FOR TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV MISSION
          TASKED IN WSPOD 20-053 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 23/2000Z.
   
   $$
   SEF
   
   NNNN
   

• Sun, 24 Jan 2021 03:37:52 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 240337
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1037 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal
  waters. The front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front
  through the weekend. Some fog is expected N of the boundary.
  High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing
  southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge
  will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western
  Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced
  and progress eastward across the basin into Fri.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  High pressure due north of the Caribbean will continue to
  support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean,
  with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early
  morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate
  to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to
  strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell
  will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters Mon night
  into Thu night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu
  night.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A cold front from 26N65W to near Melbourne, Florida, will sag S
  to along 24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning.
  Another cold front will slide across NE waters Sun and Mon. A
  stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
  the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
  through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large
  seas are likely with this system.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
  GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
  INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
  Gale Warning tonight.
  Gale Warning Sun night into Mon night.
  GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
  GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu.
  .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
  GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
  .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
  GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
  
  000
  ABNT30 KNHC 011251
  TWSAT
  
  Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
  November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
  during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
  the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
  hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
  hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
  made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
  location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
  storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
  hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
  seven to eight years.
  
  Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
  with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
  named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
  becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
  Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
  average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
  hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
  reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
  Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
  storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
  percent above the long-term mean.
  
  A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
  2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
  producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
  Carolina.
  
  Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
  the National Hurricane Center website at
  www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl
  
  Summary Table
  
  Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
  ---------------------------------------------------
  TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
  TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
  TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
  TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
  TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
  TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
  TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
  H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
  H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
  TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
  TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
  TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
  MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
  H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
  H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
  TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
  H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
  TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
  H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
  MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
  TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
  TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
  SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
  TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
  TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
  MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
  MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
  H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
  MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
  TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
  MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
  ---------------------------------------------------
  
  * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
  
  $$
  Hurricane Specialist Unit