Translate Track The Tropics

Days Until The 2019 Hurricane Season
days
1
6
5
hours
1
7
minutes
1
2
seconds
1
8
2019 Hurricane Season Names:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

Final Updated 2018 Cyclone Tracks

2017 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Current Tropics Activity

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Hurricane Supplies

TrackTheTropics Resource Links

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages


[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


CONUS Hurricane Strikes

 
[Map of 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes] 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes (Courtesy of NCDC)

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks



Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Track By Month



June Hurricane Climatology

July Hurricane Climatology

August Hurricane Climatology

September Hurricane Climatology

October Hurricane Climatology

November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 30 Nov 2018 23:36:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302336
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 11:18:52 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 171118
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    618 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes from Liberia near 06N10W, to 03N14W.
    The ITCZ continues from 03N14W to 02N30W to 03N38W. A surface
    trough is along 40W from 10N southward. The ITCZ resumes from
    03N42W to the coast of N Brazil near 00N50W. Widely scattered
    moderate convection is from 06S-04N between 25W-36W, from 01S-09N
    between 36W-42W, and from 00N-04N between 42W-50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1025 mb high is centered over S Texas near 29N97W. Surface
    ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the
    frontal boundary that currently extends across the western
    Caribbean. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate winds
    across the basin. Scattered to broken low clouds is over most of
    the Gulf.

    A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico
    through Tue night as a high pressure center moves from eastern
    Texas towards North Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE
    from the coast of Texas Wed to the SE United States Thu,
    dragging a cold front across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions
    are expected to deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon
    as the low pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Strong
    to minimal gale force winds are expected across the northern
    waters Thu night and Fri.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A 1015 mb low is centered off the coast of Honduras near 16N85W. A
    stationary front also extends N from the low to 21N82W to Cuba
    near 22N77W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the fronts.
    Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds across the Gulf
    of Honduras and over the south central Caribbean south of 16N
    between 70W-77W. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere.

    Fresh to locally strong northerly winds W of the front
    are forecast to persist today. The front will dissipate by tonight,
    and its remnants will then move westward as a trough across the
    NW Caribbean on Tue. The trough will reach the Yucatan Peninsula
    by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the
    south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the
    strongest winds near the coast of Colombia reaching near gale
    force mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter
    the NW Caribbean by late Thu.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N66W to the S
    Bahamas near 23N75W to Cuba near 22N77W. Scattered moderate
    convection is N of 27N between 60W-67W. Surface ridging prevails
    across the basin anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N51W.

    The front will push E and extend from 28N65W across the SE
    Bahamas to Camaguey, Cuba by Mon evening, and from 25N65W to
    eastern Cuba by Tue evening. The western portion of the front is
    forecast to lift northward Wed through Thu as another cold front
    moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Expect strong to gale force winds
    and building seas mainly across the waters N of the Bahamas late
    Thu through Fri night as a low pressure system deepens over the SE
    of United States dragging a cold front over the region.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sun, 16 Dec 2018 17:42:42 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 161742
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1230 PM EST SUN 16 DECEMBER 2018
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z DECEMBER 2018
              WSPOD NUMBER.....18-016
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Mon, 17 Dec 2018 07:48:18 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 170748
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    204 AM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A ridge will persist across the Gulf of Mexico through Tue night
    as a high pressure center moves from eastern Texas towards North
    Carolina. A low pressure system will move NE from the coast of
    Texas Wed to the SE of United States Thu, dragging a cold front
    across the Gulf waters. Marine conditions are expected to
    deteriorate across the region on Thu afternoon as the low
    pressure deepens over the SE of United States. Strong to minimal
    gale force winds are expected across the northern waters Thu
    night and Fri. As a result, the forecast calls for gale
    conditions possible across much of the forecast waters N of 22N
    Thu night and Fri. Seas are expected to build in the 16-20 ft
    range across the eastern half of the Gulf by Fri.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A stationary front is over the NW Caribbean extending from
    central Cuba to a weak 1015 mb low pressure centered near 17N85W.
    Fresh to locally strong N winds with seas to 8 ft are noted W of
    the front over the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions
    will persist today. The front will dissipate by tonight, and its
    remnants will then move westward as a trough across the NW
    Caribbean on Tue. The trough will then reach the Yucatan Peninsula
    by Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will persist across the
    south-central Caribbean through the forecast period, with the
    strongest winds near the coast of Colombia, reaching near gale
    force mainly at night. The next cold front is forecast to enter
    the NW Caribbean by late Thu followed by fresh to locally strong
    NW winds, and building seas of up to 8 or 9 ft.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A cold front extends from 31N68W across the central Bahamas to
    north-central Cuba near 22N78W. The front will push E and extend
    from 28N65W across the SE Bahamas to Camaguey, Cuba by Mon
    evening, and from 25N65W to eastern Cuba by Tue evening. The
    western portion of the front is forecast to lift northward Wed
    through Thu as another cold front moves across the Gulf of
    Mexico. Expect strong to gale force winds and building seas
    mainly across the waters N of the Bahamas late Thu through Fri
    night as a low pressure system deepens over the SE of United
    States dragging a cold front over the region.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night.
    .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE
    SANCTUARY...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri.
    .GMZ015...NE GULF N OF 25N E OF 87W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri.
    .GMZ019...CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu night into Fri.
    .GMZ021...E GULF FROM 22N TO 25N E OF 87W INCLUDING STRAITS OF
    FLORIDA...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Fri night.
    .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Fri night.
    .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK...
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Fri.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sat, 01 Dec 2018 05:13:27 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010513
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Dec 1 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones occurred in the basin during November, which is
    not uncommon since a November tropical storm occurs about once every
    other year.

    Overall, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Fifteen named storms formed, of which eight became
    hurricanes and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of
    tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in
    2018 was also above normal. In addition, 7 systems were
    subtropical at some point in their lifetime this season, which
    eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl .

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alberto 25-31 May 65*
    H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80*
    H Chris 6-12 Jul 105
    TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50
    TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45
    MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140
    TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70
    H Helene 7-16 Sep 110
    H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75
    TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45
    TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35
    TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60
    H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90
    MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155
    TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65
    H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

Facebook Comments