End Of The 2019 Hurricane Season
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2019 Hurricane Season Names:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy
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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

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Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
Barry Last Advisory issued on 7-14-19

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 23:15:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 202315
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 23:57:51 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 202357
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    757 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    2345 UTC.

    ...TROPICAL WAVES...

    An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22W and
    S of 20N, moving W around 15-20 kt. At this time, no significant
    convection is noted in the wave's environment. Showers are seen
    within 100 nm on either side of this feature from 06N- 10N.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 20N46W to
    04N47W, moving W around 10-15k. At this time, no significant
    convection is noted in the wave's environment.

    A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 55W and S
    of 20N and moving W around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
    S of 10N between 53W-59W.

    A central Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed with axis along 75W
    from 07N-19N, moving W around 20 kt. No significant convection is
    noted with this feature at this time.

    The northern portion of a tropical wave extends across the Yucatan
    Peninsula along 92W and S of 19N moving W around 10-15 kt.
    Scattered moderate convection is noted across the whole peninsula
    and adjacent waters between 86W-94W.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 14N17W
    to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N30W to 09N47W, then W of a
    tropical wave near 09N50W to 08N54W. Scattered showers are seen
    S the monsoon trough mainly east of 21W, while scattered moderate
    convection is seen along the ITCZ mainly west of 50W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    An inverted mid-to-upper level trough extends from the SE U.S. to
    the Yucatan. This is giving way to scattered moderate convection
    across the northeast Gulf N of 26N and E of 90W. A surface trough
    is analyzed from 29N90W to 28N87W and is acting as a focal point
    for this convection. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails, anchored
    by a 1020 mb high centered near 29N85W. Light to gentle S-SE
    winds are noted across the Gulf, with pulsing moderate winds over
    the Bay of Campeche.

    The surface trough over the north central Gulf will continue to support
    showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf N of 27N between 84W and
    90W tonight before it dissipates. A ridge will build along the
    northern Gulf coast Sun and Mon, then start to retreat eastward
    midweek. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will continue across
    most of the basin, except fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
    NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave.

    An upper level trough extends into the NW Caribbean. This is
    contributing to convection across the NW basin. Scattered moderate
    convection is also noted over Cuba, Grand Cayman Islands, and
    into the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are moving across
    the Lesser Antilles. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate
    to fresh trades across the Caribbean, with strong winds in the
    Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate trades prevail in the NW
    basin.

    High pressure N of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh
    to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through next
    week. Winds will reach near-gale force strength each night along
    the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will
    pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
    currently moving across the basin.

    Convection associated with the activity in the Gulf of Mexico is
    also seen in the western Atlantic along the S Florida coast moving
    inland in addition to the northern Bahamas mainly west of 77W. To
    the east, a surface trough extends from 27N67W to 20N68W with
    scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 25N47W to
    30N41W with isolated showers. Surface ridging is seen across the
    rest of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N63W and a
    1020 mb high near 29N51W. Moderate easterly winds are seen
    between Cuba and the Bahamas, E of 78W. Moderate to fresh
    northerly winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara and
    Mauritania.

    The surface ridge along will maintain gentle to moderate east to
    southeast winds across the region through Tue night. The ridge
    will start retreating eastward Tue enabling a trough to move into
    the NW waters Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse
    N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 23:15:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 202315
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 23:15:47 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
    No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 21 Jul 2019 03:16:40 GMT

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 14:30:44 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 201430
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1030 AM EDT SAT 20 JULY 2019
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 21/1100Z TO 22/1100Z JULY 2019
              TCPOD NUMBER.....19-053
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 20 Jul 2019 17:09:33 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 201709
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    109 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough extending from 26N88W to 30N86W will support
    showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf N of 27N between 84W and
    90W today. A ridge will remain along the northern Gulf coast
    through Mon, then shift S on Tue. Gentle to moderate E to SE
    winds will continue across most of the basin, except fresh to
    locally strong winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan peninsula each
    night through Wed night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    High pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong trade
    winds over the central Caribbean through next week. Winds will
    pulse to near gale force each night along the coast of Colombia
    through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf
    of Honduras each night this weekend.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to
    southeast winds across the region through Wed night. Fresh to
    occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each
    night through the middle of next week.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster CAM. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Mon, 01 Jul 2019 11:59:35 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011159
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2019

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Similar to the previous year, the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season
    had an early start with Subtropical Storm Andrea forming in May. No
    tropical cyclones formed in the basin in June. Based on a 30-year
    climatology (1981-2010), one named storm forms in the basin by the
    end of June about every other year.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes,
    activity in the Atlantic basin so far in 2019 is below normal.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2019&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    STS Andrea 20-21 May 40
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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