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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Thu, 05 Nov 2020 17:31:17 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 051731
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    100 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
    Depression Eta, located inland over Honduras.

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    $$
    Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 25 Feb 2021 06:04:50 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 250604
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    0605 UTC Thu Feb 25 2021

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    0540 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

    An active gale-force wind event is happening, right now, in the
    coastal waters of Colombia.
    Expect NE-to-E gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 10
    feet to 12 feet, from 10N to 13N between 74W and 78W, in the
    coastal waters of Colombia. The gale-force wind conditions will
    be lasting for the next 48 hours or so. Please, read the latest
    NWS high seas forecast from the
    National Hurricane Center, at the website:
    www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT.shtml, for more details.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough passes through the southern coastal sections
    of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from
    03N20W, to 02N26W, and to 01N32W. Precipitation: Isolated
    moderate to locally strong covers the areas that are from 08N
    southward from 60W eastward. Rainshowers are possible,
    elsewhere, from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A surface trough extends from 22N88W off the coast of the
    Yucatan Peninsula, across the NW corner of the Yucatan
    Peninsula, beyond the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico,
    into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Precipitation: no significant deep
    convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery.

    A surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure center that
    is near 28N84W, to 27N92W, 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near
    20N97W.

    Weak surface ridging, building across the northern Gulf of
    Mexico, will persist through Friday, then move northward. Gentle
    to moderate SE winds should prevail across most of the Gulf of
    Mexico on Saturday and Sunday. Sea fog is possible in the NW
    Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday, and persisting into early next
    week.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    The GFS model, for 250 mb, shows an anticyclonic circulation
    center that is just off the coast of northern Colombia near
    11N76W. This feature is spreading upper level anticyclonic wind
    flow, everywhere, in the Caribbean Sea. The GFS model for 500
    mb, shows cyclonic wind flow from 68W eastward, with an
    east-to-west oriented trough. Anticyclonic wind flow covers the
    rest of the area, with a NW-to-SE oriented ridge. The GFS model
    for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow, with a trough that runs
    from northern Colombia to the Windward Channel and SE Cuba.

    Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor
    imagery, in the entire Caribbean Sea.

    Broken to overcast low level clouds, and isolated moderate
    rainshowers, span the Caribbean Sea. The clouds and isolated
    moderate precipitation are moving with the surface-to-low level
    wind flow.

    A surface trough is along 12N73W in northern Colombia, beyond
    07N78W at the coast of Colombia, about 30 nm to the south of the
    Colombia/Panama border, into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
    Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is about 45 nm to
    the SE of the surface trough, near 06N77W, at the coast of
    Colombia. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible
    rainshowers, are from 13N southward from 73W westward, in the SW
    corner of the Caribbean Sea.

    Expect NE-to-E winds from 20 knots to 30 knots, and sea heights
    ranging from 8 feet to 10 feet, elsewhere, from 11N to 17N
    between 67W and 80W.

    The Bermuda High to the north of the region will support fresh
    to strong E trade winds in the central and eastern sections of
    the Caribbean Sea, through at least Monday night, with winds
    pulsing to gale-force off the coast of Colombia mainly during
    the overnight and early morning
    hours. Strong NE winds should develop in the Windward Passage
    tonight, persisting through Monday. Fresh to strong E trade
    winds should develop in the Gulf of Honduras nightly, beginning
    on Saturday night. N swell, with E wind waves, is producing
    combined seas to 10 feet in the tropical Atlantic Ocean, to the
    east of the Windward Islands. These conditions will prevail
    through Monday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front passes through 32N49W to 30N52W, 28N60W 26N70W, to
    26N75W. A surface trough continues from 26N75W, to the coast of
    SE Florida between Delray Beach and Boynton Beach.
    Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from the surface trough
    to 30N from 77W westward.
    Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate to
    locally strong are from 25N northward between 45W and 70W. Other
    rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from the cold front
    and surface trough, northward.

    A second cold front, in the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean,
    passes through 32N14W, the Canary Islands, to 27N20W and 25N29W.
    A shear line continues from 25N29W, to 24N38W. Precipitation:
    broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers
    are from 20N northward from 40W eastward.

    A 1036 mb high pressure center is near 38N24W. Surface
    anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from the cold
    front/shear line, northward.

    The current cold front, extending from 27N65W to the northern
    Bahamas, is starting to stall, and it will dissipate through
    early Thursday morning. Another weak cold front will move from
    west to east, across the waters to the north of 28N, on Thursday
    and Friday. High pressure, building to the north of the area
    behind the second front, will support fresh to strong E winds
    across the waters that are to the south of 22N, from late Friday
    through at least Monday night. N swell, combined with E wind
    waves in the area, will produce combined seas of about 8-9 ft on
    Sunday and Monday.

    $$
    mt/ec

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Wed, 04 Nov 2020 16:14:39 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 041614
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1115 AM EST WED 04 NOVEMBER 2020
     SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
              VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020
              TCPOD NUMBER.....20-162
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:  POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
            OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN NEAR 17.5N 87.3W FOR 06/1800Z.
     
     II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     NOTE:  THE ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS ARE NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Thu, 05 Nov 2020 15:16:26 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 051516
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1016 AM EST Thu Nov 5 2020

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
    moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
    Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
    Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
    storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and
    21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as
    it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. High pressure extending
    into the region from the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to
    strong NE winds over the eastern half of the basin through Sun.
    Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Straits of Florida
    Sun night and Mon.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
    moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
    Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
    Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
    storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening, and
    21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in intensity as
    it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center of Eta is
    expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is
    forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central
    Cuba this weekend.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    Tropical Depression Eta near 15.1N 87.8W 1005 mb at 10 AM EST
    moving NW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 25 kt gusts 35 kt.
    Eta will move inland to 15.7N 88.0W this evening, 16.8N 87.6W
    Fri morning, 17.8N 86.2W Fri evening, strengthen to a tropical
    storm near 19.0N 84.5W Sat morning, 20.1N 83.0W Sat evening,
    and 21.3N 81.2W Sun morning. Eta will change little in
    intensity as it moves to near 23.0N 80.0W early Mon. The center
    of Eta is expected to emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by
    tonight, and will re-intensify into a tropical cyclone on Fri
    in the NW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are expected W of
    70W this upcoming weekend. Tropical storm conditions are
    possible between Cuba and the Bahamas Sun night and Mon. Large
    seas are expected in the western Atlantic Sat through Mon.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    .AMZ013...CARIBBEAN N OF 18N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W INCLUDING
    CAYMAN BASIN...
    Tropical Storm Warning Fri night into Sat.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sun, 01 Nov 2020 11:49:30 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 011149
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 AM EST Sun Nov 1 2020

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
    October was quite busy with five tropical cyclones developing during
    the month. All five systems were named -- Gamma, Delta, Epsilon,
    Zeta, and Eta -- although Eta had become a tropical depression on
    October 31 and then was named early on November 1 (UTC time).
    Three of the storms became hurricanes with two, Delta and Epsilon,
    reaching major hurricane strength. Based on a 30-year climatology
    (1981-2010), two named storms typically form in the basin in
    October, with one of them becoming a hurricane. A major hurricane
    forms in the basin in October about once every three years.

    In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the
    strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity
    in the basin so far in 2020 has been well above average, more than
    40 percent above the long-term mean.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
    TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
    TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
    TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
    TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
    TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
    TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
    H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
    H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
    TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
    TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
    TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
    MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
    H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
    H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
    TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
    H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
    TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
    H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
    MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
    TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
    TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
    SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
    TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
    TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
    MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
    MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
    H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
    TS Eta 31 Oct- 40
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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