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2019 Hurricane Season Names:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

Final Updated 2018 Cyclone Tracks

2017 Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Current Tropics Activity

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages


[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


CONUS Hurricane Strikes

 
[Map of 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes] 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes (Courtesy of NCDC)

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks



Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Track By Month



June Hurricane Climatology

July Hurricane Climatology

August Hurricane Climatology

September Hurricane Climatology

October Hurricane Climatology

November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 30 Nov 2018 23:36:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302336
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 19 Jan 2019 11:39:12 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 191138
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    638 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1115 UTC.

    ...SPECIAL FEATURES...

    ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

    High pressure north of the Caribbean will continue to induce
    strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
    coast of Colombia. Gale force winds are to end on 19/1200 UTC and
    forecast to start again tonight on 20/0300 UTC and then end again
    on 20/1200 UTC.

    ...GALE WARNING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

    A strong cold front is expected to move over the northwestern Gulf
    of Mexico today, and should move quickly southeastward. The front
    is expected to clear the entire Gulf of Mexico by Sunday morning.
    Strong northerly winds, which are forecast to reach gale force,
    are expected behind the front this afternoon through Saturday
    night over the western Gulf of Mexico.

    ...GALE WARNING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...

    Southerly winds are expected to increase over portions of the
    western Atlantic Saturday afternoon ahead of the cold front that
    will be moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly and
    southwesterly winds are forecast to reach gale force east of
    northern Florida and Georgia prior to and along with the cold
    front by early Sunday morning. These gales will migrate eastward
    into Sunday night.

    For additional information on all of these warning areas, please
    read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers
    HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of Sierra Leone near
    07N12W and extends to 04N16W. The ITCZ continues from that point
    to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S41W. Isolated moderate
    convection is from 05S-03N between 17W-43W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N73W. 10-20
    kt southerly return flow is over the Gulf with strongest winds
    over the NW Gulf. A cold front is over S Texas moving towards the
    Gulf. Broken low clouds are presently over the N Gulf N of 27N.
    Sea fog is likely this morning over the N Gulf in advance of the
    cold front.

    A line of showers and thunderstorms will likely precede the cold
    front as it crosses the Gulf. Winds to gale force are expected
    behind the front near Tampico this afternoon and near Veracruz
    tonight. The front will extend from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W
    tonight, then exit from the Gulf Sun morning. This will allow
    strong winds to taper off across the basin by sunrise on Monday.
    High pressure ridging over the Gulf from the N will shift E and
    allow strong SE to S return flow to develop over the western Gulf
    by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow will expand to the
    eastern Gulf Tue night. Another strong cold front could enter the
    NW Gulf Wed.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    Quiet weather prevails across the Caribbean Sea. Only typical
    patches of low clouds and some embedded isolated showers exist
    across Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the waters near the
    Cayman Islands. The trade winds are strongest near the coast of
    Colombia.

    Fresh to strong trade winds will continue in the S central
    Caribbean Sea through Wednesday night. The winds will increase to
    gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and
    Saturday night, and then again each night Mon, Tue, and Wed.
    Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A
    strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun morning, push SE
    and extend from Haiti to NE Nicaragua Mon night, then stall and
    weaken on Tue. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas to 8 ft are
    expected W of the front.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N73W. A
    surface trough is E of the Bahamas from 28N72W to 23N72W.
    Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. A 1021 mb high
    is centered near 28N66W. A 1016 mb low is further E near 27N59W.
    Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the low. Another 1016 mb low
    is centered near 25N52W. A surface trough extends NE from the low
    to 30N47W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the trough. A
    1032 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 34N28W. Of note
    in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the central
    Atlantic N of 20N between 45W-65W supporting the two surface lows.

    Over the W Atlantic, weak high pressure will drift eastward from
    near 30N73W toward Bermuda today. Winds will veer to the S, and
    then strengthen this afternoon through Sunday morning E of Florida
    ahead of a strong cold front. The cold front will push off the
    Florida coast Sunday morning, then reach from 31N68W to central
    Cuba Sunday night, from 26N65W to northern Haiti Monday afternoon,
    then become stationary from 22N65W to the NW Dominican Republic
    Tuesday night. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on either
    side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W Sun through Mon. Seas
    could build to 20 feet in NW swell behind the front near 31N65W on
    Tuesday. Strong winds will develop between the front and 25N on
    Tue as strong high pressure builds to the N of the front. Winds
    will subside Tue night and Wed as the front weakens and high
    pressure to the N shifts E.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$
    Formosa

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Fri, 18 Jan 2019 16:00:45 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 181600
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1100 AM EST FRI 18 JANUARY 2019
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z JANUARY 2019
              WSPOD NUMBER.....18-049
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     WJM
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Sat, 19 Jan 2019 07:33:03 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 190732
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    232 AM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Fresh to strong SW to S return flow has developed over the
    western Gulf of Mexico ahead a strong cold front due to reach the
    NW Gulf of Mexico around dawn this morning. A line of showers
    and thunderstorms is developing over Texas and will likely
    precede the front as it crosses the Gulf. Winds to gale force are
    expected behind the front along the coast of Mexico near Tampico
    this afternoon, then shifting to near Veracruz tonight. The
    front will extend from 30N85W to 25N88W to 19N92W tonight. The
    front will exit from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday afternoon, and
    allow strong winds to taper off across the basin by sunrise on
    Monday. A high pressure ridge to the N of the Gulf will shift E
    and allow strong SE to S return flow to develop over the western
    Gulf by Tuesday morning. The strong return flow will expand to
    the eastern Gulf Tue night.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the S central
    Caribbean through Wednesday night. The winds will increase to
    gale force along the immediate coast of Colombia tonight and on
    Saturday night, and then again each night Mon, Tue, and Wed.
    Winds over the basin will generally be stronger next week as high
    pres builds over the western Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh
    trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will
    enter the NW Caribbean Sea on Sunday and Monday, then stall and
    weaken. The front will reach from the Yucatan Channel to the Gulf
    of Honduras Sunday morning, then extend from SE Cuba to the
    eastern coast of Honduras Monday morning. Fresh to strong NW to N
    winds and seas to 8 ft are expected behind the front.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    Weak high pressure will drift E from the SE United States toward
    Bermuda today. Winds will veer to the S, and then strengthen
    this afternoon through Sunday morning E of Florida ahead of a
    strong cold front. The cold front will push off the Florida coast
    Sunday morning, then reach from 31N68W to central Cuba Sunday
    night, from 26N65W to northern Haiti Monday afternoon, then
    become stationary from 22N65W to the NW Dominican Republic
    Tuesday night. Minimal gale force winds will be possible on
    either side of the front N of 28N and W of 60W from Sunday
    through Monday. Seas may build as high as 20 feet in NW swell
    behind the front near 31N65W on Tuesday. Strong winds will
    develop between the front and 25N on Tue as strong high pressure
    builds to the N of the front. Winds will subside Tue night and
    Wed as the front weakens and high pressure to the N shifts E.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning today.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed into Wed night.
    .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
    Gale Warning today into tonight.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
    INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
    Gale Warning early today.
    Gale Warning tonight.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night.
    GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Tue night into Wed.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    .AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
    Gale Warning tonight into Sun.
    .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
    Gale Warning Sun into Sun night.
    .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
    Gale Warning Sun night.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster McElroy. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sat, 01 Dec 2018 05:13:27 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010513
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Dec 1 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones occurred in the basin during November, which is
    not uncommon since a November tropical storm occurs about once every
    other year.

    Overall, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Fifteen named storms formed, of which eight became
    hurricanes and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of
    tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in
    2018 was also above normal. In addition, 7 systems were
    subtropical at some point in their lifetime this season, which
    eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl .

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alberto 25-31 May 65*
    H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80*
    H Chris 6-12 Jul 105
    TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50
    TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45
    MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140
    TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70
    H Helene 7-16 Sep 110
    H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75
    TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45
    TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35
    TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60
    H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90
    MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155
    TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65
    H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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