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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 01 Dec 2020 14:54:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011454
TWOAT
Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between
the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less
organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are
expected to become less conducive for development as the system
moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although
subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue
to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira
Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on
this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France.
This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on
this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will
resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will
be issued as necessary during the off-season.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 24 Jan 2021 10:19:57 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
878
AXNT20 KNHC 241018
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Jan 24 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Caribbean Gale Warning: High pressure due north of the Caribbean
Sea combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to
support pulsing winds to gale force within about 90 nm of the
coast of Colombia through at least early Wed morning. Wave heights
generated by these winds are forecast to be in the range of 10-13
ft, mainly around daybreak each day. Please read the latest NWS
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Liberia near
05N09W to 05N15W. The ITCZ continues from 05N15W to 03N30W to
04N38W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-05N
between 07W-12W, and from 02N-05N between 20W-43W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal waters.
This front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front today.
Dense fog, reducing visibility to less than one mile, is expected
N of the boundary, particularly from Lake Charles, Louisiana to
Brownsville, Texas. Moderate easterly winds are noted N of the
front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough is near the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula producing mainly moderate winds.
Light to gentle winds are observed elsewhere across the Gulf
waters. High clouds are moving from central Mexico into the Gulf
region due to strong southwesterly flow aloft.
Building high pressure over the SE U.S. will bring increasing
southerly return flow and building seas over the western Gulf
today and Mon. The ridge will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front
moves into the western Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front
will then get reinforced on Wed and progress eastward across the
basin through Thu night. Frequent gusts to gale force are expected
in the wake of the front on Wed, with gale conditions possible in
the Veracruz area Wed night into Thu. Seas are forecast to build
up to 13 or 14 ft with the strongest winds.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
Pulsing winds to gale force are expected during the overnight and
early morning hours near the coast of Colombia. Please, refer to
the Special Features section above for details.
Elsewhere, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail, pulsing
to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Honduras Tue and Tue night with
seas building to 5-7 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
expected in the Windward passage tonight, and south of Dominican
Republic tonight through Mon night. Shallow moisture embedded in
the trade winds flow is seen across the basin producing isolated
to scattered passing showers. Patches of low level moisture with
possible light showers, carried by the trade winds, are affecting
most of Honduras and north-central Nicaragua.
Northerly swell will impact the NE Caribbean passages on Tue with
additional pulses of N swell reaching the same area Thu night into
Fri. Northerly swell will also propagate into the Tropical North
Atlantic waters Mon night through Thu night.
A cold front currently located along 26N W of 60W with continue to
move southward, approaching the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola by Mon night. This front could bring an increase
in the likelihood of rain over these islands on Tue. Another cold
front is forecast to reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night followed
by fresh to strong northerly winds.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A cold front extends across the central and Western Atlantic from
31N48W to 26N65W to near West Palm Beach, FL. Doppler radar shows
a few showers associated with the front between the NW Bahamas
and the coast of Florida. This system is forecast to move
southward reaching 25N by Sun morning, 22N-23N by Sun night, and
21N by Mon morning. It will bring a slight chance of showers to
South Florida tonight. A pre-frontal trough extends from 30N47W to
23N70W. Scattered showers are ahead of the trough N of 26N.
A reinforcing cold front will slide across the waters north of
27N and east of 70W today and Mon, bringing strong to near gale
force winds and building seas to the waters north of 29N between
55W-65W. large northerly swell will follow the front, building
seas to 15-18 ft across the central Atlantic near 31N by tonight.
Southerly flow will increase across the waters E of north-central
Florida Mon into Tue.
A stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large seas
are likely with this system.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a ridge anchored by a high pressure of 1023 mb located just SE
of the Madeira Islands. Moderate to fresh winds are along the
southern periphery of the ridge.
$$
GR
Active Tropical Systems
- Thu, 03 Dec 2020 02:54:54 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sat, 23 Jan 2021 17:33:10 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000 NOUS42 KNHC 231733 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1235 PM EST SAT 23 JANUARY 2021 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z JANUARY 2021 WSPOD NUMBER.....20-054 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49 A. 25/0000Z B. NOAA9 04WSC IOP05 C. 24/1900Z D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 25.0N 179.0W, 25.0N 160.0W, 45.0N 160.0W, AND 45.0 179.0W E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 24/2030Z-25/0230Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 26/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO MORE CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 27/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME. 4. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIME FOR TODAY'S NOAA 49 G-IV MISSION TASKED IN WSPOD 20-053 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 23/2000Z. $$ SEF NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Sun, 24 Jan 2021 03:37:52 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 240337
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1037 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...GULF OF MEXICO...
A stationary front extends across the northern Gulf coastal
waters. The front will slowly retreat northward as a warm front
through the weekend. Some fog is expected N of the boundary.
High pressure will build over the SE U.S. with increasing
southerly return flow and building seas Sun and Mon. The ridge
will weaken late Mon as a weak cold front moves into the western
Gulf, stalling by early Tue. The front will then get reinforced
and progress eastward across the basin into Fri.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
High pressure due north of the Caribbean will continue to
support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean,
with winds pulsing to gale force during the overnight and early
morning hours off Colombia into late next week. Mainly moderate
to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to fresh to
strong over the Gulf of Honduras Mon night through Wed. N swell
will propagate into the Tropical North Atlantic waters Mon night
into Thu night. A cold front will enter the Yucatan Channel Thu
night.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A cold front from 26N65W to near Melbourne, Florida, will sag S
to along 24N by Sun morning, and along 21N by Mon morning.
Another cold front will slide across NE waters Sun and Mon. A
stronger cold front will move off the SE U.S coast Thu while
the associated low pressure rapidly intensifies N of the area
through the end of the week. Gale force winds and very large
seas are likely with this system.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Wed night into Thu.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
Gale Warning tonight.
Gale Warning Sun night into Mon night.
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Mon night into Tue.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ111...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N W OF 77W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu.
.AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE Thu into Thu night.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Tue, 01 Dec 2020 12:51:50 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic
000
ABNT30 KNHC 011251
TWSAT
Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin during the month of
November was extremely active, with two tropical cyclones developing
during the month and a third tropical cyclone, Eta, continuing from
the end of October. Two of the storms, Eta and Iota, became major
hurricanes, with Iota becoming the latest observed category 5
hurricane on record in the North Atlantic basin. Both Eta and Iota
made landfall in Nicaragua as major hurricanes in nearly the same
location. Based on a 30-year climatology (1981-2010), a tropical
storm forms in the basin in November every one to two years, a
hurricane forms every other year, and a major hurricane forms every
seven to eight years.
Overall, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was extremely active,
with well above normal activity for the season. A record thirty
named storms formed, with thirteen becoming hurricanes and six
becoming major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the long-term
average of twelve named storms, six hurricanes, and three major
hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
Energy (ACE), which measures the strength and duration of tropical
storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in 2020 was 75
percent above the long-term mean.
A record twelve named storms made landfall in the United States in
2020, with an additional storm, Arthur, not making landfall but
producing tropical storm force winds along the coast of North
Carolina.
Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
the National Hurricane Center website at
www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2020&basin=atl
Summary Table
Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
---------------------------------------------------
TS Arthur 16-19 May 60*
TS Bertha 27-28 May 50*
TS Cristobal 1-9 Jun 60
TS Dolly 22-24 Jun 45
TS Edouard 4-6 Jul 45
TS Fay 9-11 Jul 60
TS Gonzalo 21-25 Jul 65
H Hanna 23-27 Jul 90
H Isaias 30 Jul-5 Aug 85
TD Ten 31 Jul-1 Aug 35
TS Josephine 11-16 Aug 45
TS Kyle 14-16 Aug 50
MH Laura 20-28 Aug 150
H Marco 20-25 Aug 75
H Nana 1-4 Sep 75
TS Omar 31 Aug-5 Sep 40
H Paulette 7-22 Sep 105
TS Rene 7-14 Sep 50
H Sally 11-17 Sep 105
MH Teddy 12-22 Sep 140
TS Vicky 14-17 Sep 50
TS Wilfred 18-20 Sep 40
SS Alpha 18 Sep 50
TS Beta 17-22 Sep 60
TS Gamma 2-5 Oct 70
MH Delta 4-10 Oct 145
MH Epsilon 19-26 Oct 115
H Zeta 24-29 Oct 110
MH Eta 31 Oct-13 Nov 150
TS Theta 10-15 Nov 70
MH Iota 13-18 Nov 160
---------------------------------------------------
* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.
$$
Hurricane Specialist Unit
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