Track The Tropics - Spaghetti Models
2019 Hurricane Season Names:
Andrea Barry Chantal Dean Erin Fernand Gabrielle Humberto Imelda Jerry Karen Lorenzo Melissa Nestor Olga Pablo Rebekah Sebastien Tanya Van Wendy

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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages


[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles] Estimated return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast


CONUS Hurricane Strikes

 
[Map of 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes] 1950-2011 CONUS Hurricane Strikes (Courtesy of NCDC)

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks



Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Track By Month



June Hurricane Climatology

July Hurricane Climatology

August Hurricane Climatology

September Hurricane Climatology

October Hurricane Climatology

November Hurricane Climatology

Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic

5 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic 5 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

  • Fri, 30 Nov 2018 23:36:53 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT20 KNHC 302336
    TWOAT

    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    700 PM EST Fri Nov 30 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

    This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
    the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. Routine issuance of the
    Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on June 1, 2019. During the
    off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
    conditions warrant.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

Tropical Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 24 Mar 2019 10:20:21 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

    000
    AXNT20 KNHC 241020
    TWDAT

    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    620 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1015 UTC.

    ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

    The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 05N09W
    to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to the coast of Brazil
    near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 350
    nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-30W.

    GULF OF MEXICO...

    Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1028 mb
    surface high centered over the west Atlantic. This is producing
    gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the whole area.

    Weak ridging will persist over the Gulf through Monday,
    then dissipate ahead of a cold front moving into the northern
    Gulf waters Tuesday. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf
    through late Wednesday. Winds will increase to fresh to strong
    over the NE Gulf late Wednesday through Thursday as strong high
    pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states.

    CARIBBEAN SEA...

    A shearline extends across the northwest Caribbean from 20N76W to
    18N86W. Fresh northerly winds will prevail north of the shearline
    through tonight. Scattered showers are occurring along and west
    of the shearline affecting Cuba and adjacent waters. Fresh to
    strong easterly winds will continue pulsing at night across the
    waters within 90 nm north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades
    are noted in scatterometer data over the remainder of the basin.

    The shearline will dissipate today. Northerly Atlantic swell will
    move through the Caribbean passages east of Hispaniola through
    late today. A new cold front will move southward into the
    northwest Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling and
    weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thursday.

    ATLANTIC OCEAN...

    A cold front extends from 31N64W to 28N71W to 30N79W, then becomes
    stationary to 31N81W. To the east, a stationary front extends
    from 31N56W to 20N74W. Scattered showers prevail across the
    stationary front. Elsewhere across the Atlantic, tranquil weather
    conditions continue as surface ridging prevails, anchored by a
    1026 mb high near 31N41W.

    The stationary front will dissipate today. A second front
    reaching from Bermuda to northeast Florida will move south and
    stall along 24N by late today, before dissipating over the region
    tonight. A third front will move off the northeast Florida coast
    early Tuesday. Low pressure may form along the front by mid week,
    followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds. The front
    and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week.

    For additional information please visit
    http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

    $$

    ERA

Active Tropical Systems

Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans

  • Sun, 24 Mar 2019 14:31:59 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
     
     000
     NOUS42 KNHC 241431
     REPRPD
     WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
     CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
     1030 AM EDT SUN 24 MARCH 2019
     SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
              VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z MARCH 2019
              WSPOD NUMBER.....18-114
     
     I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
         1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
         2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
     
     $$
     SEF
     
     NNNN
     

Marine Weather Discussion

  • Sun, 24 Mar 2019 08:10:17 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 240810
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    410 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2019

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    Weak ridging extends across the northern Gulf waters this
    morning. Recent scatterometer data and buoys observations show
    light to gentle E to SE winds over the northern Gulf, and mostly
    moderate E winds over the southern Gulf. Winds are pulsing to 20
    kt off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are 1
    to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft over the western
    Gulf. No widespread dense fog or smoke is reported.

    The weak ridging will persist over the Gulf through Mon, then
    dissipate ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf
    waters Tue. The front will sweep southeast of the Gulf through
    late Wed. Winds will increase to fresh to strong over the NE Gulf
    late Wed through Thu as strong high pressure settles over the
    Mid Atlantic states.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A shearline or old frontal boundary extends from eastern Cuba
    westward to west of Grand Cayman Island, Earlier ship
    observations and scatterometer data indicated strong winds north
    of the shear line. Recent scatterometer data showed moderate to
    fresh NE winds into the Windward Passage, and fresh to strong
    winds off northeast Colombia.

    The shear line will meander and dissipate through today.
    Elsewhere fresh to strong tradewinds are expected near the coast
    of Colombia through Wed. N to NE Atlantic swell will move through
    the Caribbean passages E of Hispaniola through late today. A new
    cold front will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wed night,
    before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize Thu.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weak stationary front reaches from 26N65W to the Windward
    Passage. A second cold front reaches from 31N63W to 29N75W then
    is stationary to off Jacksonville Florida. Light to gentle winds
    are noted north of 24N, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds area
    noted south of 24N.

    The weak stationary front will dissipate through late today. A
    second front will move south and stall along 24N by late today,
    before dissipating over the region tonight. A third front will
    move off the northeast Florida coast early Tue. Low pressure may
    form along the front by mid week, followed by strong to near gale
    force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift
    slowly eastward through late week.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.

Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary

  • Sat, 01 Dec 2018 05:13:27 +0000: Atlantic - Atlantic

    000
    ABNT30 KNHC 010513
    TWSAT

    Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Sat Dec 1 2018

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    No tropical cyclones occurred in the basin during November, which is
    not uncommon since a November tropical storm occurs about once every
    other year.

    Overall, the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season featured above normal
    activity. Fifteen named storms formed, of which eight became
    hurricanes and two became major hurricanes - category 3 or higher on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. This compares to the
    long-term average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major
    hurricanes. There was also one tropical depression that did not
    reach tropical-storm strength. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone
    Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of
    tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin in
    2018 was also above normal. In addition, 7 systems were
    subtropical at some point in their lifetime this season, which
    eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969.

    Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at
    the National Hurricane Center website at
    www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl .

    Summary Table

    Name Dates Max Wind (mph)
    ---------------------------------------------------
    TS Alberto 25-31 May 65*
    H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80*
    H Chris 6-12 Jul 105
    TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50
    TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45
    MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140
    TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70
    H Helene 7-16 Sep 110
    H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75
    TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45
    TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35
    TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60
    H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90
    MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155
    TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65
    H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105
    ---------------------------------------------------

    * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.

    $$
    Hurricane Specialist Unit

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