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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

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[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
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Tropical Storm Gamma – 2020 Hurricane Season

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ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Gamma as of 10-6-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

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NHC Public Advisory on Gamma
  • Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:11 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15

    000
    WTNT35 KNHC 060231
    TCPAT5

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
    1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

    ...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
    YUCATAN PENINSULA...
    ...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...


    SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...21.6N 88.4W
    ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
    ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma
    was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. The
    post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9
    km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
    day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is currently centered along
    the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and will move inland
    through Monday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual weakening is anticipated and Gamma is forecast to dissipate
    by Wednesday.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: Through midweek, the remnants of Gamma are expected to
    produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
    maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of
    Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of
    flash flooding.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
    under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

NHC Forecast Advisory on Gamma
  • Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:10 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone GAMMA Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone GAMMA Forecast/Advisory Number 15 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 120SW 270NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.2W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 88.4W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY

    000
    WTNT25 KNHC 060231
    TCMAT5

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL252020
    0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 5 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
    12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 120SW 270NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 88.4W AT 06/0300Z
    AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 88.2W

    FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
    MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/INLAND
    MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

    FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 88.4W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


    $$
    FORECASTER ZELINSKY


NHC Discussion on Gamma
  • Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:40 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15

    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 060231
    TCDAT5

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
    1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020

    Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly
    before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the
    southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced
    at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively
    associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have
    developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so,
    but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to
    meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now
    considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC
    advisory.

    The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized
    convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland
    over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in
    significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that
    are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane
    Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near
    5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it
    dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should
    gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still
    produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico.

    It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently
    the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the
    Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days.
    This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates
    and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no
    models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for
    more than another day or two.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    Forecaster Zelinsky

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