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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours 12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours 0-120 Hours 120-240 Hours

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesEastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane StrikesSE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane StrikesNE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

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Hurricane Epsilon – 2020 Hurricane Season

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Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
Additional Projected Path SwathAdditional Projected Path Swath
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force WindsMost Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force WindsHurricane Force Wind Probabilities Hurricane Force Wind ProbabilitiesTropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
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Microwave Imagery
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Epsilon Key Messages
Storm Recon
Intensity Forecasts Intensity ForecastsModel Tracks Model TracksModel TracksModel TracksGFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks EURO/GFS Ensembles from WeatherNerds
EPS Ensemble Tracks
NHC Public Advisory on Epsilon
  • Mon, 26 Oct 2020 02:34:17 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Advisory Number 29 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Advisory Number 29

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 260234
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Advisory Number 29
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
    300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

    ...EPSILON BECOMES A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
    NORTH ATLANTIC...
    ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON EPSILON...


    SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...48.6N 38.8W
    ABOUT 675 MI...1090 KM ENE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 46 MPH...74 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
    Epsilon was located near latitude 48.6 North, longitude 38.8 West.
    The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 46 mph
    (74 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through
    Monday night.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
    gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day
    or so before the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by a large
    extratropical low pressure system on Monday night or early Tuesday.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 450 miles (720 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the
    Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the
    east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada through Monday.
    These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
    current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
    office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
    Center on Epsilon. Additional information on this system can be
    found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
    under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

NHC Forecast Advisory on Epsilon
  • Mon, 26 Oct 2020 02:33:14 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone EPSILON Forecast/Ad... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone EPSILON Forecast/Advisory Number 29 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 90NE 180SE 180SW 30NW. 34 KT.......240NE 390SE 360SW 330NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 900SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 41.3W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 390NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 450SE 450SW 420NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.6N 38.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON EPSILON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 260233
    TCMAT2

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
    0300 UTC MON OCT 26 2020

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

    POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 40 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
    50 KT....... 90NE 180SE 180SW 30NW.
    34 KT.......240NE 390SE 360SW 330NW.
    12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 900SW 360NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 48.6N 38.8W AT 26/0300Z
    AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 47.3N 41.3W

    FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 150SE 150SW 60NW.
    34 KT...270NE 420SE 420SW 390NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
    34 KT...300NE 450SE 450SW 420NW.

    FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 48.6N 38.8W

    THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
    CENTER ON EPSILON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
    FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
    SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

    $$
    FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY


NHC Discussion on Epsilon
  • Mon, 26 Oct 2020 02:36:14 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 260236
    TCDAT2

    Post-Tropical Cyclone Epsilon Discussion Number 29
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
    300 AM GMT Mon Oct 26 2020

    Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Epsilon no longer
    has the structure of a tropical cyclone. The low-level circulation
    is stretched out along a north-south axis, with an area of lighter
    winds noted near and north of the ill-defined center. Furthermore,
    infrared cloud tops have warmed over the past several hours as
    convection wanes near the center. Therefore, Epsilon has been
    declared a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC
    advisory for the system.

    A partial 22Z ASCAT-A overpass showed at least 55-kt winds in the
    southern semicircle of the cyclone, which supports keeping the
    initial intensity at 60 kt. Post-tropical Epsilon is firmly embedded
    in the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone will continue racing
    northeastward at around 35-40 kt for the next day or so. The cyclone
    will remain a very powerful and dangerous storm until it is absorbed
    by another large extratropical low pressure system over the
    northeastern Atlantic. The global models remain in very good
    agreement with this scenario, and no notable changes were made to
    the official NHC forecast.

    Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
    Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
    header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
    ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 26/0300Z 48.6N 38.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
    12H 26/1200Z 52.1N 30.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    24H 27/0000Z 57.0N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    36H 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

    $$
    Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

2 Day Tropical Weather OutlookAtlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
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