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Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
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 mphft
5≥157>18
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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

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Beta – 2020 Hurricane Season

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ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Beta as of 9-22-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update. Advisories are now being handled by the WPC.

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NHC Public Advisory on Beta
  • Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:47:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5

    000
    WTNT32 KNHC 200847
    TCPAT2

    BULLETIN
    Tropical Storm Epsilon Advisory Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
    500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

    ...EPSILON DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
    WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.6N 54.7W
    ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SE OF BERMUDA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    There are no coastal watches or warning in effect.

    Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Epsilon.


    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Epsilon was
    located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 54.7 West. Epsilon is
    moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward
    the north and northwest is expected later today, with a general
    northwestward motion expected through Thursday. On the forecast
    track, Epsilon is forecast to approach Bermuda on Thursday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
    and Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength by
    Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

    Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km)
    from the center.

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon are expected to affect
    Bermuda for the next several days. These swells are likely to
    cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
    consult products from your local weather office.


    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

NHC Forecast Advisory on Beta
  • Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:47:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm EPSILON Forecast/Advisory ... - Atlantic Tropical Storm EPSILON Forecast/Advisory Number 5 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 60SE 50SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 60SE 270SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...250NE 90SE 50SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 100SE 50SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 54.7W NEXT Advisory AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

    000
    WTNT22 KNHC 200847
    TCMAT2

    TROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020
    0900 UTC TUE OCT 20 2020

    THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

    INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EPSILON.

    TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z
    POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

    PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 3 KT

    ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
    MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
    34 KT.......240NE 60SE 50SW 240NW.
    12 FT SEAS..540NE 60SE 270SW 480NW.
    WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
    MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

    REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 54.7W AT 20/0900Z
    AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 55.0W

    FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W
    MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
    34 KT...250NE 90SE 50SW 240NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W
    MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
    50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
    34 KT...270NE 100SE 50SW 240NW.

    FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W
    MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
    34 KT...270NE 110SE 60SW 240NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W
    MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 70NW.
    34 KT...210NE 100SE 80SW 210NW.

    FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W
    MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
    50 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
    34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 180NW.

    FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
    50 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
    34 KT...180NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

    EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
    ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

    OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W
    MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

    OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W
    MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

    REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 54.7W

    NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z

    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN


NHC Discussion on Beta
  • Tue, 20 Oct 2020 08:48:48 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 200848
    TCDAT2

    Tropical Storm Epsilon Discussion Number 5
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020
    500 AM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

    Epsilon continues to have a non-standard appearance in satellite
    imagery this morning. While an area of convection is near and over
    the center, the center is also near the western end of a baroclinic
    zone, and that is giving the storm the look of a occluded
    extratropical low. In addition, water vapor and air mass imagery
    indicate that an upper-level trough is close to the system in the
    southwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have not
    changed significantly since the last advisory, so the initial
    intensity is unchanged at 40 kt. Epsilon remains a large cyclone
    with gale-force or tropical-storm-force winds extending outward
    more than 250 nmi in the northern semicircle.

    The center has drifted eastward since the last advisory, with the
    initial motion a somewhat uncertain 075/3. A northward to
    northwestward motion is expected to begin shortly as Epsilon
    becomes embedded in a large mid-level low over the central
    Atlantic. Later today, a mid-level ridge is forecast to build to
    the north and east of the cyclone, forcing Epsilon generally toward
    the northwest through about 72 h. After that time, a deep-layer
    trough and associated frontal system moving eastward into the
    western Atlantic should cause the cyclone to recurve to the
    northeast at an increasing forward speed. The guidance is in good
    agreement with the scenario, and the new forecast track, which has
    only minor adjustments from the previous track, lies near the
    various consensus models. On the forecast track, Epsilon should
    make its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday.

    There are several conflicting factors in the intensity forecast.
    First, while the cyclone is expected to move over relatively warm
    sea surface temperatures, the oceanic heat content along the
    forecast track drops to low levels after 36 h. Second, while the
    overall shear is forecast to be light to moderate through the
    forecast period, Epsilon is interacting with the aforementioned
    upper-level trough, and the global models suggest it will interact
    with another trough around the 72 h point. These troughs should
    provide upper-level divergence to aid strengthening, but also may
    feed cool and dry air into the cyclone, which would be a negative
    factor. The intensity guidance continues to show gradual
    strengthening despite the negative factors, with the global models
    showing fairy low central pressures during the 72-120 h period.
    Based on this, the intensity forecast continues to call for Epsilon
    to become a hurricane, and the new forecast has only minor tweaks
    from the previous forecast. Extratropical transition will likely
    be underway by 120 h, but likely will not finish until after the
    end of the forecast period.

    Key Message:

    1. Epsilon is forecast to be at or near hurricane strength when
    it approaches Bermuda late this week. While it is too soon to
    determine the exact details of Epsilon's track and intensity near
    the island, there is a risk of direct impacts from wind, rainfall,
    and storm surge on Bermuda, and interests there should closely
    monitor the progress of Epsilon.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 20/0900Z 25.6N 54.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 20/1800Z 26.6N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
    24H 21/0600Z 27.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
    36H 21/1800Z 28.5N 59.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
    48H 22/0600Z 29.4N 60.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
    60H 22/1800Z 30.6N 60.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
    72H 23/0600Z 31.6N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
    96H 24/0600Z 33.5N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
    120H 25/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

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