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DONATETheta – Last NHC Advisory Issued – 2020 Hurricane Season
ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Theta as of 11-15-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.
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- Sat, 11 Oct 2025 20:33:10 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Advisory Number 18 - Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Advisory Number 18
475
WTNT35 KNHC 112033
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Remnants Of Jerry Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025
...JERRY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 63.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Jerry were located near
latitude 27.6 North, longitude 63.6 West. The remnants are moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) but are expected to turn
toward the northeast over the next couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. The remnants are expected to continue producing gale-force
winds until it merges with a frontal boundary in a day or two.
Gale-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) to the
east of the remnant center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are affecting the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and
the Bahamas. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office for more information.
A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
- Sat, 11 Oct 2025 20:32:42 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Forecast/Advisory Numbe... - Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Forecast/Advisory Number 18
000
WTNT25 KNHC 112032
TCMAT5
REMNANTS OF JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 11 2025
REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 63.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 210SE 0SW 0NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 63.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 63.7W
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 63.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
- Sat, 11 Oct 2025 20:33:40 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Discussion Number 18 - Atlantic Remnants of Jerry Discussion Number 18
483
WTNT45 KNHC 112033
TCDAT5
Remnants Of Jerry Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025
500 PM AST Sat Oct 11 2025
A combination of scatterometer data, GOES-East derived motion
winds, and a recent GPM microwave pass seems to confirm that Jerry
does not have a well-defined center and has degenerated into a
trough with deep convection located at the southeastern end of the
axis. As a result, this will be the last NHC advisory on this
system. Maximum winds are estimated to be 40 kt based on ASCAT data
from this morning.
The rough motion estimate is northward, or 360/14 kt. The remnant
trough is expected to move northward and then northeastward, with
the European, Canadian, and UKMET models showing it merging with a
frontal boundary to its north in 24-36 hours. Gale-force winds are
likely to continue to the east and north of the trough until it
merges with the front. The GFS continues to keep the remnants as a
distinct feature, but given that its initial position of the
remnants is too far to the southeast, it is still considered an
outlier solution.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/2100Z 27.6N 63.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook