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- Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:11 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
000
WTNT35 KNHC 060231
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is currently centered along
the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and will move inland
through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated and Gamma is forecast to dissipate
by Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through midweek, the remnants of Gamma are expected to
produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of
flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
- Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:30:48 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone THETA Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone THETA Forecast/Advisory Number 23 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT25 KNHC 151430
TCMAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER
WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
- Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:32:20 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23
000
WTNT45 KNHC 151432
TCDAT5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020
Theta has run out of theta-e. The cyclone has been without
significant deep convection for many hours now and has been
gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications
of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory. The initial
wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass.
The low is meandering this morning. It is expected to be picked up
to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern
Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed. The remnants of
Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry
air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two.
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR
and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/1500Z 31.5N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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