Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

STORM TEMPLATE example Laura

NHC Public Advisory on Laura

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 20:36:48 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21

000
WTNT33 KNHC 292036
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

...ZETA ZOOMING OFFSHORE THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.8N 75.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM WSW OF CAPE MAY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 55 MPH...89 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta
was located near latitude 38.8 North, longitude 75.3 West. Zeta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 55 mph (89 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the
forecast track, the center of Zeta will emerge over the western
Atlantic this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast tonight, but the cyclone should
become absorbed by a frontal system on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph
(63 km/h) and a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) were recently reported at
Ocean City, Maryland.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.

WIND: A few strong gusts are still possible across portions of
extreme eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the
southern Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

RAINFALL: The last of the heavy rainfall along the track of Zeta
will impact the Mid-Atlantic through this evening. Additional
rainfall totals of an inch or less are expected across these areas,
possibly resulting in flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Laura

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 20:36:20 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ZETA Forecast/Advis... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ZETA Forecast/Advisory Number 21 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020 2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 48 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 270SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 240SE 360SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 75.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT23 KNHC 292036
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL282020
2100 UTC THU OCT 29 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 48 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 270SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 75.3W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 78.2W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 360SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.8N 75.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Laura

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 20:37:21 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21

000
WTNT43 KNHC 292037
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Zeta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Zeta lost tropical characteristics and was declared post-tropical a
few hours ago. The surface pressure field has become elongated
with the center now embedded within a frontal zone over the
Mid-Atlantic states. The maximum sustained winds are still
estimated to be 45 kt, based on an observation received from
northeastern North Carolina a few hours ago, and winds have been
increasing at marine sites located just off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Zeta is zooming toward the east-northeast (060/48 kt), and its
center is just about to move off the Delmarva Peninsula over the
western Atlantic waters. This motion should continue for the next
day or so since Zeta is embedded within fast westerly flow ahead of
a strong mid-level trough.

Some baroclinic re-intensification is expected over the next day or
so while Zeta moves farther out over the western Atlantic, and the
12-hour forecast intensity is based on the GFS and ECMWF global
models. Zeta's center is expected to dissipate within the frontal
zone by 24 hours, with another strong low pressure area likely to
develop and move toward the north Atlantic over the next several
days. The forecast wind radii are based on guidance from the
Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last advisory issued on Zeta. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Strong wind gusts are still possible over portions of extreme
eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, and the southern
Delmarva Peninsula during the next couple of hours.

2. Through this evening, the last of the heavy rainfall along the
track of Zeta is expected over the Mid-Atlantic. This rainfall may
lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 38.8N 75.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 30/0600Z 41.0N 66.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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