Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Storm Template 2 – 2020 Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Dolly

Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:50:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system,
as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight
for portions of these areas.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to
approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that,
Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC Forecast Advisory on Dolly

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:33:33 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ETA Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ETA Forecast/Advisory Number 52 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 130833
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC Discussion on Dolly

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:34:37 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52

000
WTNT44 KNHC 130834
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery,
surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has
merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone
off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer
data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone
northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong
convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is
forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is
absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h.

The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone
should continue this general motion with an increase in forward
speed until it is absorbed.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Eta. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.3N 76.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

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