Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Storm Template 2 – 2020 Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Dolly

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:34:04 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52

000
WTNT34 KNHC 130833
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...

SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 21
mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track,
Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S.
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the
next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC Forecast Advisory on Dolly

Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:50:21 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression ETA Forecast/Advisory... - Atlantic Tropical Depression ETA Forecast/Advisory Number 20 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL Storm WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 87.5W FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 87.8W NEXT Advisory AT 05/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT24 KNHC 051450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 87.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC Discussion on Dolly

Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:50:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20

000
WTNT44 KNHC 051450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests
that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple
vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic
envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over
northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern
semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being
maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its
remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn
northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move
northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h,
the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low
in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to
turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the
global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution,
there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the
fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west
UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best
overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls
for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in
60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the forecast period.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back
over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the
convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the
warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be
slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough.
As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the
global models suggest that the system could strengthen while
acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due
to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of
the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should
be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled
out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys
this weekend and early next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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