Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Future Sara – 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Sara

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:30:54 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19 - Atlantic Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19

000
WTNT34 KNHC 180830
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Sara Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

...SARA DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 91.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the remnants of Sara were located near
latitude 19.0 North, longitude 91.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected
over northern Honduras, with storm total amounts locally as high as
40 inches. The risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flooding
impacts will continue, especially along and near the Sierra La
Esperanza.

Across portions of Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, western
Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, the remnants of
Sara are expected to produce an additional 3 to 5 inches of rain
with localized storm totals around 15 inches. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Sara.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Sara

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:30:54 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of SARA Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Remnants of SARA Forecast/Advisory Number 19 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 91.1W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 91.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON SARA $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT24 KNHC 180830
TCMAT4

REMNANTS OF SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0900 UTC MON NOV 18 2024

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 91.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 91.1W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 91.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON SARA

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Sara

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:31:58 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19 - Atlantic Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19

000
WTNT44 KNHC 180831
TCDAT4

Remnants Of Sara Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
300 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that Sara no
longer has a well organized circulation, and therefore has
degenerated into a trough of low pressure. The trough is beginning
to emerge back over water in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. While
strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit tropical
development, the remnant vorticity and moisture could interact with
an approaching frontal system and contribute to heavy rainfall along
the northern Gulf Coast during the next couple of days.

This is the last NHC advisory on Sara. For more information on the
ongoing rainfall threat in southern Mexico/Central America and the
expected heavy rainfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, see products
issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local weather
office.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 19.0N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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