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- Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:35:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42
000
WTNT32 KNHC 090234
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beryl Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
...FLOODING RAINS AND THE RISK OF TORNADOES CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS, WESTERN LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 94.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ENE OF TYLER TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beryl
was located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 94.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph (28
km/h) and this motion is expected to continue during the next
couple of days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Beryl is expected to become a remnant
low on Tuesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the NHC website at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.
STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Texas coast,
but should continue to recede overnight.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?peakSurge.
TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are possible through tonight across
parts of east Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. The tornado risk will
spread into southeast Missouri, northern Tennessee, Kentucky,
southern Illinois, southern Indiana, and Ohio on Tuesday.
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with locally higher
amounts, is expected across portions of far southeastern Oklahoma,
Arkansas and southern Missouri through Tuesday. Local flash and
urban flooding is expected.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Tropical Depression Beryl, please see the National
Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS2 with the
WMO header ACUS42 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html
SURF: Swells generated by Beryl are expected to gradually
decrease during the next day or so. Please consult products from
your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:34:35 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression BERYL Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Tropical Depression BERYL Forecast/Advisory Number 42 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024 0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 94.8W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W...Post-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 94.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BERYL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT22 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
000
WTNT22 KNHC 090234
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
0300 UTC TUE JUL 09 2024
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.8N 94.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.1N 94.8W
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.8N 94.3W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON BERYL. THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER
TCMAT2, WMO HEADER WTNT22 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:36:06 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42
000
WTNT42 KNHC 090235
TCDAT2
Tropical Depression Beryl Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024
Beryl continues to move farther inland, and the center is now near
the border of Texas, Louisiana, and Arkansas. Although the wind and
storm surge hazards have largely subsided, there continues to be a
significant threat of heavy rainfall and tornadoes along the
forecast track for the next day or so. Visit weather.gov for details
on these hazards.
Beryl is expected to move swiftly northeastward while weakening,
and it is forecast to become a remnant low on Tuesday. This is the
last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Beryl. Future information on this system can be found in
discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
400 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KWNH, and
on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
Key Messages:
1. Local flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
northeast Texas, far southeastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and southern
Missouri through Tuesday. Minor to moderate river flooding is also
possible.
2. Use caution after Beryl passes. Deadly hazards remain including
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. Exercise
caution when using chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of
water to avoid heat exhaustion.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/0300Z 32.8N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/1200Z 34.9N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/0000Z 38.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 40.9N 85.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 43.0N 82.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 44.8N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 12/0000Z 46.5N 75.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi