Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Milton- 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Milton

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 02:52:47 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6

882
WTNT34 KNHC 150252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Sara Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND SARA JUST INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES EXPECTED IN HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM WNW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Watch for the northeastern coast of Nicaragua.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from Punta Sal eastward to the
Honduras/Nicaragua Border
* The Bay Islands of Honduras

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sara was
located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Sara is
moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward motion at a
slower forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. A
slow west-northwestward motion is forecast by late Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Sara will move close to the northern
coast of Honduras through early Saturday, then approach the coast of
Belize on Sunday.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some further strengthening is possible during the next
couple of days if the center of Sara remains offshore of the
northern coast of Honduras.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Tropical Storm Sara can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

RAINFALL: Through early next week, rainfall amounts of 10 to 20
inches with isolated storm totals around 30 inches area expected
over northern Honduras. This rainfall will lead to widespread areas
of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and
mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza.

Elsewhere across the rest of Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern
Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo,
Sara is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with localized
totals around 15 inches through early next week. This will result in
areas of flash flooding, perhaps significant, along with the
potential of mudslides.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Sara, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205755.shtml?
rainqpf#contents

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
Honduras during the next couple of days.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1
to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in
areas of onshore winds along the northern coast of Honduras. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Milton

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 02:52:22 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm SARA Forecast/Advisory Num... - Atlantic Tropical Storm SARA Forecast/Advisory Number 6 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.0W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.5W Intermediate PUBLIC Advisory...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT24 KNHC 150252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM SARA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192024
0300 UTC FRI NOV 15 2024

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.5W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 84.0W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 15/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Milton

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 02:55:18 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6

404
WTNT44 KNHC 150255
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Sara Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192024
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Radar data from Belize shows heavy rainfall from Sara continues to
spread over portions of Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and
Honduras tonight. There has been some increase in deep convection
closer to the center of the storm this evening. A recent Air Force
Hurricane Hunter flight leg over the northern semicircle found
925-mb flight-level winds up to 52 kt, which supports an initial
intensity of 40 kt. The flight-level wind data also indicated that
the center of Sara is likely just inland or very near the
northeastern coast of Honduras, and the center was somewhat
elongated west to east.

Sara is moving westward (270/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Gulf of Mexico. A slower westward motion is
expected over the next couple of days, with the center of Sara
forecast to move along or very near the coast of northern Honduras.
As the ridge slides eastward later this weekend, Sarah should turn
toward the west-northwest by late Saturday and move across the Gulf
of Honduras before approaching the coast of Belize on Sunday. The
updated NHC track prediction is nudged slightly south in the short
term, but generally lies between the latest simple and corrected
consensus aids (TVCA/HCCA) with little overall change from the
previous forecast.

While the environmental and oceanic conditions are favorable for
some intensification, Sara's relatively broad structure and
proximity to land are likely to inhibit significant strengthening.
Given the slight southward track adjustment, little intensity change
is expected in the short term while the storm continues to interact
with land along the northeastern coast of Honduras. Some further
strengthening is forecast thereafter once Sara turns
west-northwestward and moves over water. The updated NHC forecast
shows a similar peak intensity as the previous prediction, in best
agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Once again, a more
northern track than forecast could result in additional
strengthening. The storm is forecast to move inland over Belize on
Sunday and quickly weaken while moving over the Yucatan Peninsula.
This forecast shows dissipation by day 4, as the global models agree
that the low-level circulation of Sara is unlikely to survive its
trek across the Yucatan Peninsula.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Through early next week, heavy rainfall from Sara will cause
potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides over
northern portions of Honduras.

2. Elsewhere across Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala,
western Nicaragua, and the Mexican State of Quintana Roo, heavy
rainfall will cause significant and life-threatening flash flooding
and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
northern coast of Honduras, and the adjacent Bay Islands where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.

4. The system is forecast to approach Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico late this weekend where there is a risk of
strong winds. Residents in these areas should monitor the latest
forecast updates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
24H 16/0000Z 16.0N 86.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
36H 16/1200Z 16.1N 86.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 16.3N 87.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 16.6N 87.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 17.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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