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- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:42:28 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6
000
WTNT32 KNHC 181442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
...GABRIELLE STILL STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 51.7W
ABOUT 755 MI...1220 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 51.7 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple days, followed
by a northwestward turn this weekend.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast over the
weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:41:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 6
000
WTNT22 KNHC 181441
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......250NE 180SE 0SW 120NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 180SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 51.7W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 51.2W
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...190NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 0SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 51.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER MULLINAX/BLAKE
- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 14:43:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
010
WTNT42 KNHC 181443
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
Gabrielle continues to struggle this morning as a pronounced swirl
of low-level clouds is unable to muster up much in the way of deep
convection near its center. Gabrielle's poor structure is due to
ongoing westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of
dry air entrainment that is infiltrating its circulation. The
initial intensity is held at 45 kt based on recent scatterometer
data of at least 40 kt, but this value remains above the latest
satellite intensity estimates.
Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, meaning Gabrielle is likely maintain its
current intensity or weaken during that time. It is even possible
it could decay into a non-convective post-tropical low for a time.
Assuming it survives, most guidance suggests that the storm will
move into more conducive conditions that persist into early next
week, allowing Gabrielle to organize and strengthen as it tracks
north to northeastward. The NHC intensity forecast is near the low
end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, but lies closer
to the middle of the guidance at days 4 and 5.
Gabrielle's more erratic track over the past 24-48 hours has now
smoothed out over the past 12-24 hours with a west-northwestward
motion at 13 kt. This west-northwest to northwest motion should
persist over the next few days as the storm is steered primarily by
a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. A turn toward the
north or northeast is forecast to occur late this weekend and early
next week when Gabrielle rounds the western periphery of the ridge
and a frontal system approaches from the west. The NHC track
forecast was adjusted just west of track given the guidance's more
westerly consensus of a weaker system inside the next 48 hours.
Gabrielle's forward motion is a little faster as well, especially
between hours 48-120 when it should accelerate thanks to increased
steering flow on the western side of the Atlantic ridge.
Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/1500Z 20.3N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 21.1N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 22.1N 55.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 23.2N 57.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 24.4N 59.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 25.9N 60.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 27.7N 61.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 31.4N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 36.5N 56.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
$$
Forecaster Mullinax/Blake
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook