Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Harold – 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Harold

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:31:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26

000
WTNT34 KNHC 082031
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Debby
was located inland near latitude 35.1 North, longitude 80.2 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17
km/h). A faster northward or north-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days, but Debby is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone on
Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 998 mb (29.47 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Debby can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm-force could occur for a few more
hours along portions of the North Carolina coast.

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is possible in the Cape Fear, Neuse,
and Pamlico Rivers...1 to 3 ft.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Debby is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches
of rainfall with locally higher amounts, across portions of
southeastern North Carolina leading to maximum storm total amounts
as high as 15 inches. Additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches over
portions of eastern South Carolina will bring maximum storm total
amounts as high as 20 to 25 inches. Considerable flooding is
expected across portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast
North Carolina through Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3
to 7 inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through
Friday. This rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable to
locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding, especially in the
terrain of western Virginia, with river flooding also possible.

From portions of Maryland north through Upstate New York and
Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected
through Friday night. This will likely result in areas of
considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.

For the remainder of northern New England, 1 to 3 inches, with
local amounts to 4 inches, are expected into Saturday. Scattered
instances of flash flooding are possible.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Debby, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. For a list of
rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated this storm, see
the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the WMO header ACUS44
KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur through tonight from central
and eastern North Carolina into central and southeast Virginia.
The threat for tornadoes will shift northward into parts of New
Jersey and eastern Pennsylvania on Friday.

SURF: Large swells will continue to affect the Southeast U.S.
coast for another day or so. These conditions are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Debby. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO
header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php
.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Forecast Advisory on Harold

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:31:30 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression DEBBY Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Tropical Depression DEBBY Forecast/Advisory Number 26 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024 2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 80.2W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W...Post-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 80.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DEBBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP . $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

000
WTNT24 KNHC 082031
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042024
2100 UTC THU AUG 08 2024

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 80.2W AT 08/2100Z...INLAND
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 80.2W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.1N 80.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON DEBBY. FUTURE INFORMATION ON DEBBY CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0300 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT4, WMO HEADER
WTNT24 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.

RAINFALL FORECASTS FOR THE UNITED STATES CAN ALWAYS BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/QPF2.SHTML
AND OUTLOOKS OF FLASH FLOOD RISKS CAN BE FOUND AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/EXCESSIVE_RAINFALL_OUTLOOK_ERO.PHP
.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

NHC Discussion on Harold

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:33:02 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26

000
WTNT44 KNHC 082032
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Debby Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

Debby continues to move farther inland and the center is now
located over south-central North Carolina. The storm continues to
produce heavy rains across portions of the Carolinas and Virginia,
with the major flood threat continuing in those areas. Surface
observations indicate that winds along the North Carolina coast and
offshore have decreased, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is lowered to 30 kt, making Debby a tropical depression.
Although the sustained winds have decreased, there could still be
some gusts to tropical-storm-force along portions of the North
Carolina coast for a few more hours.

The system is moving north-northwestward at 9 kt. A turn to the
north or north-northeast and a significant increase in forward
speed are expected. This motion will take Debby, or its
remnants, across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast States during the
next day or so. Debby is likely to complete extratropical
transition tonight or on Friday and dissipate in a couple of days.

This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the
National Hurricane Center on Debby. Future information on
this system can be found in discussions issued by the Weather
Prediction Center beginning at 1100 PM EDT, under AWIPS header
TCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KWNH, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov.

Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall across portions of the Carolinas is expected to
persist through today along with areas of considerable flooding.
Heavy rainfall will also result in considerable to locally
catastrophic flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic
States and Northeast through Saturday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 35.1N 80.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 09/0600Z 37.1N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/1800Z 41.2N 76.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 10/0600Z 45.7N 71.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 10/1800Z 48.9N 62.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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