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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Sun, 05 Oct 2025 23:15:45 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
990
AXNT20 KNHC 052315
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave,
with axis near 30W, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this week as it moves
quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching
portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.
Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A second tropical wave is along 45W from 20N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.
Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 59W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Some shower activity is
near the low center.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 15.5N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb
low pressure located near 08.5N30W (AL95), to 07N34W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N34W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 05N to 08N between 12W and 20W, and from 05N to
10N between 40W and 51W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak trough of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is beginning to
move inland over the Gulf coast and development is not expected due
to strong upper-level winds and land interaction. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds persist over the N Gulf, particularly N of 27N based
on scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within this winds.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will build modestly across the
Gulf basin by late Mon leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight
to moderate seas, with locally fresh winds possible in the northeastern
Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL95.
A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
in general gentle to moderate trade winds. Slight to moderate
seas are within these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in N swell
are noted across the NE Atlantic passages, including the Mona and
Anegada Passages, and waters in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands. An upper-level low is spinning over the eastern part of
the basin while a diffluent pattern aloft is observed elsewhere.
This pattern is helping to induce convection over the western
part of the Caribbean, especially W of 75W, including Cuba, the
Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well as parts of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will gradually subside early this week.
Elsewhere, moderate trade winds will persist across the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. A broad
area of low pressure (AL95) is forecast to move quickly across
the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the
Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas with this
system by the end of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.
A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and
extends westward to 27N55W to the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are N of the frontal boundary. Recent
altimeter data and buoys observations indicate that max seas of
12 to 13 ft follow the front, particularly over the central
Atlantic. High pressure continues to dominates the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front. Farther east, a 1024 mb high
pressure is analyzed midway between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and a surface
trough over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds between
the Canary Islands, and offshore Western Sahara. These winds
also cover the waters from 19N to 26N E of 25W to the coast of W
Africa. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to
rough seas in NW to N swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell
across the forecast waters will slowly subside from north to
south over the central Atlantic early this week. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds will prevail north of the above mentioned stationary
front, extending from the central Atlantic near 27N55W through
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through late Tue
before winds slowly diminish by midweek.
$$
GR
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Sun, 05 Oct 2025 23:15:45 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
990
AXNT20 KNHC 052315
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave,
with axis near 30W, continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this week as it moves
quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching
portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week.
Interests there should monitor the progress of this system. There
is a medium chance of tropical cyclone development within the
next 48 hours, and a high chance within the next 7 days.
Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A second tropical wave is along 45W from 20N southward, moving
west at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is occurring near
this wave.
Another tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles with axis
along 59W, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Some shower activity is
near the low center.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of
Senegal near 15.5N17W and continues southwestward to a 1010 mb
low pressure located near 08.5N30W (AL95), to 07N34W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N34W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 05N to 08N between 12W and 20W, and from 05N to
10N between 40W and 51W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak trough of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is beginning to
move inland over the Gulf coast and development is not expected due
to strong upper-level winds and land interaction. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds persist over the N Gulf, particularly N of 27N based
on scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within this winds.
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail.
For the forecast, high pressure will build modestly across the
Gulf basin by late Mon leading to moderate E to SE winds and slight
to moderate seas, with locally fresh winds possible in the northeastern
Gulf.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
Please, see the Special Features section for more information on
Invest AL95.
A weak pressure gradient dominates the Caribbean Sea supporting
in general gentle to moderate trade winds. Slight to moderate
seas are within these winds. Higher seas of 5 to 7 ft in N swell
are noted across the NE Atlantic passages, including the Mona and
Anegada Passages, and waters in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands. An upper-level low is spinning over the eastern part of
the basin while a diffluent pattern aloft is observed elsewhere.
This pattern is helping to induce convection over the western
part of the Caribbean, especially W of 75W, including Cuba, the
Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well as parts of Central America
and the Yucatan Peninsula.
For the forecast, rough seas in large N to NE swell over the
tropical Atlantic waters will gradually subside early this week.
Elsewhere, moderate trade winds will persist across the south-
central Caribbean. Moderate E to SE winds will pulse fresh to
locally strong in the northwestern Caribbean, including the Gulf
of Honduras, each night through the middle of the week. A broad
area of low pressure (AL95) is forecast to move quickly across
the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the
Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. Regardless of
development, expect an increase in winds and seas with this
system by the end of the week.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details on
Invest AL95.
A stationary front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and
extends westward to 27N55W to the central Bahamas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are N of the frontal boundary. Recent
altimeter data and buoys observations indicate that max seas of
12 to 13 ft follow the front, particularly over the central
Atlantic. High pressure continues to dominates the western
Atlantic in the wake of the front. Farther east, a 1024 mb high
pressure is analyzed midway between the Azores and the Madeira
Islands. The pressure gradient between this system and a surface
trough over NW Africa supports fresh to strong NE winds between
the Canary Islands, and offshore Western Sahara. These winds
also cover the waters from 19N to 26N E of 25W to the coast of W
Africa. Rough seas are within these winds. Gentle to moderate
winds are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to
rough seas in NW to N swell.
For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in large N to NE swell
across the forecast waters will slowly subside from north to
south over the central Atlantic early this week. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds will prevail north of the above mentioned stationary
front, extending from the central Atlantic near 27N55W through
the central Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through late Tue
before winds slowly diminish by midweek.
$$
GR
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 07 Oct 2025 11:39:27 +0000: There are no tropical cyclones at this time. - NHC Atlantic
No tropical cyclones as of Mon, 06 Oct 2025 01:50:07 GMT - Sun, 05 Oct 2025 23:39:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052339
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a low-latitude tropical
wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized cloudiness
and showers several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by midweek as it moves quickly across the central tropical
Atlantic, approaching the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this
week. Interests there should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
$$
Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Sun, 05 Oct 2025 14:04:14 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051404
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1005 AM EDT SUN 05 OCTOBER 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z OCTOBER 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-127
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
MISSION INTO SUSPECT AREA AL95 EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR
13.8N 50.7W FOR 08/1200Z, DEPARTING TBPB AT 08/0800Z.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION INTO
AL95 NEAR 14.0N 53.0W FOR 08/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf