2025 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Track The Tropics
SUPPORT TRACK THE TROPICS Over the last decade plus if you appreciate the information and tracking I provide during the season along with this website which donations help keep it running please consider a one time... recurring or yearly donation if you are able to help me out...

Venmo: @TrackTheTropicsLouisiana
Website: TrackTheTropics.com/DONATE
DONATE

Track The Tropics is the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7! Since 2013 the main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2025 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Storm Recon

Storm Recon

Latest Posts on the LHC Blog

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed (mph) Storm Surge (ft)
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]

Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010

Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes

Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes

SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes

NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Share this page
Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 2 Day GTWO graphic
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook Atlantic 7 Day GTWO graphic

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:15:36 +0000: Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    971 <br />ABNT20 KNHC 181315<br />TWOAT <br /><br />Special Tropical Weather Outlook<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />915 AM EDT Tue Mar 18 2025<br /><br />For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:<br /><br />Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.<br /><br />Routine issuance of the Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May <br />15, 2025. During the off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks <br />will be issued as conditions warrant.<br /><br />$$<br />Forecaster Hagen
Tropical Weather Discussion
  • Sun, 04 May 2025 21:35:27 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
    133 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 042133<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Mon May 5 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2120 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of<br />Senegal near 14N17W and extends south-southwestward to 08N17W to <br />05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 03N30W to 04N40W to near <br />the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is<br />ongoing from 02N to 04N between 10W and 15W.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and<br />extends from Steinhatchee, Florida to 26N90W, then is stationary<br />to just south of of Barra El Mezquital in northeast Mexico. A trough<br />is ahead of the front, extending from Cape Sable, Florida to 25N90W.<br />A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the trough over <br />the south-central Gulf. This pattern is supporting generally light<br />breezes across the basin with 1 to 3 ft, except for moderate E <br />winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of the front off northeast Mexico. <br />Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern <br />Mexico covers most of the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast, the front will stall and weaken Mon morning. Gentle<br />to moderate winds will dominate the basin through early Mon. <br />Winds over the western zones will gradually strengthen Mon evening<br />through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to moderate to <br />fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid- week. Another weak <br />front may reach the NW Gulf midweek. Smoke from agricultural fires<br />in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some <br />sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility <br />near the SW Gulf coast. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />A few showers and thunderstorms are active just off the eastern<br />tip of Jamaica, but no significant showers or thunderstorms are<br />active elsewhere. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft<br />are noted across the basin at this time. <br /><br />For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will <br />pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue <br />night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to <br />continue over most of the eastern Caribbean well into the week. <br />Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected<br />over the remainder of the basin through the period, including in <br />the Tropical N Atlantic. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /> <br />1029 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near<br />37N47W. Two lingering low level troughs remains across the waters<br />between 20N and 25N, along 54W and 63W. Scattered showers and <br />thunderstorms prevail north of Grand Bahama Island to 32N,<br />associated to an upper trough moving through the southeast U.S.<br />Moderate to fresh S winds and 4 to 6 ft are evident north of the<br />Bahamas. Another cluster of showers and thunderstorms is active <br />near 27N58W, just to the east of an upper low. Fresh to strong E <br />winds and 5 to 8 ft are ongoing in this area from 25N to 30N <br />between 50W and 60W. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 4 to 6 <br />ft are noted elsewhere across the Atlantic. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to strong winds and rough<br />seas from 25N to 30N between 50W and 60W. These conditions will <br />gradually shift westward into the early part of the week as the <br />trough drifts westward. A weak cold front may approach then stall <br />near the southeastern U.S. coast through Mon, and lift back north <br />as warm front around the middle of the week. Expect scattered to <br />numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western waters into <br />the early part of the week. <br /><br />$$<br />Christensen
Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
  • Mon, 31 Mar 2025 20:15:38 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
    502 <br />NOUS42 KNHC 312015<br />REPRPD<br />WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS<br />CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.<br />0415 PM EDT MON 31 MARCH 2025<br />SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)<br />         VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z APRIL 2025<br />         WSPOD NUMBER.....24-121<br /><br />SECOND TEST RETRANSMISSION<br /><br />I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS<br />    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.<br />    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br /><br />NOTE:  THIS IS THE LAST WSPOD OF THE SEASON UNLESS CONDITIONS<br />       DICTATE OTHERWISE.<br /><br />$$<br />SEF<br /><br />NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
  • Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion

    000
    AGXX40 KNHC 171522
    MIMATS

    Marine Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021

    Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
    and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
    and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas

    This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
    Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
    Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.

    ...GULF OF MEXICO...

    High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
    the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
    week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
    basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
    Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
    Plains.

    ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...

    A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
    diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
    will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
    pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

    ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

    A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
    will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
    drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
    pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
    an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
    with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.

    $$

    .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
    coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
    telephone:

    .GULF OF MEXICO...
    None.

    .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
    55W AND 64W...
    None.

    .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
    None.

    $$

    *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF

    Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
    Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php

    For additional information, please visit:
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine

    $$

    .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
  • Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
    000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf
Share this page