2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

Page Navigation: Atlantic Tropical Outlook / Tropical Discussion / Active Tropical Systems
Scheduled Recon Flight Plans / Marine Weather Discussion / Tropical Monthly Summary

2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Sat, 30 Nov 2024 23:31:37 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
  
  000
  ABNT20 KNHC 302331
  TWOAT
  
  Tropical Weather Outlook
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
  
  For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
  
  Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
  
  This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
  the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
  Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
  off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
  conditions warrant.
  
  $$
  Forecaster Beven
  
  

• Tue, 11 Feb 2025 23:16:38 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
  000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 112316<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through<br />2300 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high <br />pressure centered over the western Atlantic and low pressure <br />over northwestern Colombia will continue to support pulsing <br />winds to gale force each night and early morning offshore of <br />Colombia through Thu night. Rough to very rough seas are <br />expected within these winds. Seas will peak at 12 to 14 ft near <br />the highest winds. <br /><br />Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by <br />the National Hurricane Center, at the website: <br />www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the Sierra<br />Leone and Liberia border and continues SW to near 00N25W. The <br />ITCZ extends from 00N25W to near the coast of Brazil at 02S44W. <br />Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from <br />the Equator to 05N between 08W and 28W. <br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A weakening Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into<br />the Gulf of Mexico producing moderate to locally fresh SE to S <br />winds. Seas are generally 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft across the<br />offshore waters of W Florida and the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Some<br />clouds are noted across the basin moving northward under a <br />southerly wind flow.<br /><br />For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed night,<br />then stall from the Bay of Campeche to near the Florida Big Bend<br />on Fri before dissipating. Southerly winds will increase ahead <br />of the front in the central Gulf tonight through Wed afternoon. <br />Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front, <br />possibly reaching minimal gale force off Tampico, Mexico briefly <br />Thu evening. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to <br />enter the NW Gulf early Sun and move SE across the full basin by <br />Mon evening.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,<br />read the Special Feature Section for more details. <br /><br />The pressure gradient between a ridge N of area and the Colombian<br />low continues to support pulsing winds to gale force near the <br />coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the remainder<br />of the central Caribbean with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Fresh to strong<br />NE winds are blowing across the Windward Passage where seas are <br />in the 5 to 7 ft range. Mainly fresh trade winds dominate the<br />eastern Caribbean with seas of 5 to 7 ft while moderate to fresh<br />winds are noted over the NW Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas. Strong<br />winds aloft, are producing a plume of transverse high clouds from<br />the coast of Nicaragua eastward roughly along 16N to the Leeward<br />Islands. Patches of low level moisture, producing isolated to <br />scattered passing showers, are also noted.<br /><br />For the forecast, aside from the winds near the coast of Colombia,<br />fresh NE to E trade winds and rough seas are expected across the<br />remainder of southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend,<br />with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage,<br />in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Atlantic high <br />pressure will move to near 55W early Thu through Fri, briefly <br />shifting the zone of strong trade winds and rough seas across the<br />eastern Caribbean and Tropical North Atlantic waters. Looking <br />ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Mon <br />and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the basin.<br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A cold front is clipping the forecast region between 60W and <br />70W. A ridge, dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast <br />area. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are noted along the <br />southern periphery of the ridge, particularly S of 22N, with seas<br />of 6 to 9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds <br />are seen N of 22N with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except across the <br />offshore waters W of the Bahamas where seas are 1 to 3 ft range. <br />An area of light and variable winds is along the ridge axis, <br />particularly N of 26N-27N between 30W and 70W. <br /><br />For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds <br />will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic <br />ridge persists along 28N-29N. Associated easterly swell will also<br />lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate<br />winds will prevail N of 25N until Fri, when a cold front will move<br />into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of 70W, bringing <br />fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is expected to move<br />eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along 26N on Sat. <br />The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun night and reach from <br />near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Mon afternoon.<br /><br />$$<br />GR

• Wed, 12 Feb 2025 04:45:01 +0000: The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. - NHC Atlantic
  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.

• Tue, 11 Feb 2025 18:30:56 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
  

  000<br />NOUS42 KNHC 111830<br />REPRPD<br />WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS<br />CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.<br />0130 PM EST TUE 11 FEBRUARY 2025<br />SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)<br />         VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z FEBRUARY 2025<br />         WSPOD NUMBER.....24-073<br /><br />I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS<br />    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71<br />       A. 13/0000Z<br />       B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK66<br />       C. 12/2000Z<br />       D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED, PLUS 5 ADDITIONAL DROPS<br />          AT SELECTED MIDPOINTS BETWEEN ORIGINAL 10 DROPS.<br />       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/2030Z TO 13/0230Z<br />       F. TRACK WILL BE FLOWN COUNTERCLOCKWISE.<br /><br />    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br /><br />II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS<br />    1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74<br />       A. 13/0000Z<br />       B. AFXXX 14WSE IOP21<br />       C. 12/1830Z<br />       D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:<br />          30.0N 125.0W, 30.0N 145.0W, 50.0N 145.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W<br />       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/2030Z TO 13/0230Z<br /><br />    2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49<br />       A. 13/0000Z<br />       B. NOAA9 17WSC IOP21<br />       C. 12/1900Z<br />       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:<br />          25.0N 155.0W, 25.0N 140.0W, 45.0N 140.0W, AND 45.0N 155.0W<br />       E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 12/2030Z TO 13/0230Z<br /><br />    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND<br />       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC<br />       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC<br />       FOR THE 14/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.<br />    4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND<br />       THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC<br />       RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC<br />       FOR THE 15/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.<br /><br />$$<br />WJM<br /><br />NNNN

• Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
  
  000
  AGXX40 KNHC 171522
  MIMATS
  
  Marine Weather Discussion
  NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
  1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
  
  Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
  and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
  and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
  
  This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
  Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
  Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
  
  ...GULF OF MEXICO...
  
  High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
  the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
  week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
  basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
  Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
  Plains.
  
  ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  
  A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
  diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
  will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
  pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
  
  ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  
  A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
  will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
  drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
  pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
  an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
  with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
  
  $$
  
  .WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
  coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
  telephone:
  
  .GULF OF MEXICO...
  None.
  
  .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
  55W AND 64W...
  None.
  
  .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
  None.
  
  $$
  
  *For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
  
  Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
  Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
  
  For additional information, please visit:
  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
  
  $$
  
  .Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
  

• Sun, 01 Dec 2024 03:00:40 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
  000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 010300<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1000 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024<br /><br />For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br /><br />Tropical cyclone activity this November was above average in terms <br />of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in <br />the Atlantic basin. Three named storms formed during the month, <br />including one (Rafael) that became a major hurricane. Based on a <br />30-year climatology (1991-2020), a tropical storm forms in November <br />once every year or two, and a hurricane forms once every two years.<br /><br />Rafael strengthened into a hurricane while passing near Jamaica and <br />the Cayman Islands before making landfall in western Cuba as a <br />category 3 hurricane. Elsewhere, Patty brought tropical storm <br />conditions to portions of the Azores. Sara meandered near the coast <br />of Honduras before making landfall as a tropical storm in Belize.<br /><br />Overall, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season had above-normal <br />activity in terms of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and <br />major hurricanes. In 2024, there were 18 named storms that formed in <br />the Atlantic basin, of which 11 became hurricanes and 5 strengthened <br />into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson <br />Hurricane Wind Scale). These numbers are greater than the long-term <br />(1991-2020) averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major <br />hurricanes. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which <br />measures the strength and duration of tropical storms and <br />hurricanes, activity in the basin in 2024 was about 34 percent above <br />the long-term (1991-2020) average.<br /><br />Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the <br />National Hurricane Center website at<br />www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2024&basin=atl<br /><br />Summary Table<br /><br />Name Dates Max Wind (mph)<br />------------------------------------------------------------------<br />TS Alberto 19-20 Jun 50*<br />MH Beryl 28 Jun-9 Jul 165<br />TS Chris 30 Jun-1 Jul 45*<br />H Debby 3-9 Aug 80<br />H Ernesto 12-20 Aug 100<br />H Francine 9-12 Sep 100<br />TS Gordon 11-17 Sep 45<br />MH Helene 24-27 Sep 140<br />H Isaac 26-30 Sep 105<br />TS Joyce 27 Sep-1 Oct 50<br />MH Kirk 29 Sep-7 Oct 145<br />H Leslie 2-12 Oct 105 <br />MH Milton 5-10 Oct 180<br />TS Nadine 19-20 Oct 60<br />H Oscar 19-22 Oct 85<br />TS Patty 2-4 Nov 65<br />MH Rafael 4-10 Nov 120<br />TS Sara 14-18 Nov 50<br /><br />------------------------------------------------------------------ <br /><br />Dates are based on Coordinated Universal Time (UTC).<br />* Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete.<br /><br />$$<br />Hurricane Specialist Unit