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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Tue, 05 Aug 2025 10:45:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
262
AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to
20N with axis 21W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 18W and 25W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then extends
southwestward across 13N25W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 09N37W across 08N45W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 13W and 19W, and from
04N to 11N between 23W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a 1013 mb low
over the Florida Panhandle to a 1015 mb low over SE Louisiana to
SE Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
over the coastal waters between the Florida Panhandle and SE
Louisiana. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low SW to the
NE Mexico offshore waters, and supports isolated showers over the
NW Gulf. Surface ridging and a relaxed pressure gradient support
moderate or weaker SE winds over the basin along with slight seas.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary across the NE Gulf region through Wed while
dissipating. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula, tonight through Fri night, as a trough develops
there daily and drifts westward.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a low pressure over NW Colombia and
high pressure to the NE of the northern Bahamas is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin along with
7-8 ft seas. The same pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas in the NW Caribbean while winds
over the E basin have diminished to mainly moderate speeds.
Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across Guatemala and Yucatan is
generating scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure north of basin will support fresh
to strong winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse across
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight following the passage of a
tropical wave across Central America. The high pressure will
weaken by Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the
basin, leaving gentle breezes and slight seas across the northwest
Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
elsewhere, and strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening stationary front extending from 31N73W to Georgia and
a surface trough in the central Bahamas are generating scattered
showers between 66W and 76W. The central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High and
associated ridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds E
of 30W and gentle to moderate winds across the remainder
subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Seas are moderate with
these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure east of the Bahamas
will diminish as weak low pressure develops between the northern
Bahamas and Bermuda through Wed. This weak pressure pattern will
support gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
across the region, except for occasional fresh winds pulsing off
Hispaniola.
$$
Ramos
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Tue, 05 Aug 2025 10:45:28 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
262
AXNT20 KNHC 051045
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Aug 5 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic extending from 08N to
20N with axis 21W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 10N between 18W and 25W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, then extends
southwestward across 13N25W to 09N37W. The ITCZ continues
westward from 09N37W across 08N45W to 09N58W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 17N between 13W and 19W, and from
04N to 11N between 23W and 54W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a 1013 mb low
over the Florida Panhandle to a 1015 mb low over SE Louisiana to
SE Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue
over the coastal waters between the Florida Panhandle and SE
Louisiana. A surface trough extends from the 1015 mb low SW to the
NE Mexico offshore waters, and supports isolated showers over the
NW Gulf. Surface ridging and a relaxed pressure gradient support
moderate or weaker SE winds over the basin along with slight seas.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary will remain nearly
stationary across the NE Gulf region through Wed while
dissipating. Elsewhere, a weak ridge will prevail supporting
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas.
Pulsing fresh E winds are likely at night north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula, tonight through Fri night, as a trough develops
there daily and drifts westward.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
The pressure gradient between a low pressure over NW Colombia and
high pressure to the NE of the northern Bahamas is supporting
fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin along with
7-8 ft seas. The same pressure gradient supports moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas in the NW Caribbean while winds
over the E basin have diminished to mainly moderate speeds.
Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across Guatemala and Yucatan is
generating scattered showers in the Gulf of Honduras.
For the forecast, high pressure north of basin will support fresh
to strong winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean
through Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse across
the Gulf of Honduras through tonight following the passage of a
tropical wave across Central America. The high pressure will
weaken by Thu, allowing winds and seas to diminish across the
basin, leaving gentle breezes and slight seas across the northwest
Caribbean, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas
elsewhere, and strong winds pulsing off Colombia at night.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weakening stationary front extending from 31N73W to Georgia and
a surface trough in the central Bahamas are generating scattered
showers between 66W and 76W. The central and eastern subtropical
Atlantic waters are under the influence of the Azores High and
associated ridge, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds E
of 30W and gentle to moderate winds across the remainder
subtropical waters between 30W and 65W. Seas are moderate with
these winds.
For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure east of the Bahamas
will diminish as weak low pressure develops between the northern
Bahamas and Bermuda through Wed. This weak pressure pattern will
support gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas
across the region, except for occasional fresh winds pulsing off
Hispaniola.
$$
Ramos
Active Tropical Systems
- Tue, 05 Aug 2025 11:34:51 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 051134
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Dexter, located over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean.
Off the Southeastern United States:
A weak surface trough currently located several hundred miles off
the coast of the southeastern United States is expected to form an
area of low pressure in a day or so. Thereafter, environmental
conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form by the latter portion of this
week or weekend as as the low initially moves slowly westward, but
turns more northward by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is currently
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity, primarily
to the southwest of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over
the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward across
the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin - Tue, 05 Aug 2025 09:21:58 +0000: Tropical Storm Dexter Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:44:05 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2025 09:21:58 GMT - Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:42:48 +0000: Tropical Storm Dexter Forecast Discussion Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025000 WTNT44 KNHC 050842 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Dexter Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 Dexter appears to be weakening. The low-level circulation has become totally exposed this morning- a consequence of continued strong vertical wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates have fallen so the initial wind speed is reduced to 35 kt. Little change is expected for the next day or so as Dexter battles the shear. While normally the storm would just decay after the waters become cooler in a couple days, most models are now showing re-intensification due to a favorable trough interaction. This was first shown by the ECMWF yesterday, and now other models are on board. The short-term part of the forecast was lowered based on the initial wind speed, and little change was made to the longer-term intensities. The storm continues moving east-northeastward at about 10 kt. An east-northeast to northeast track is likely for the next couple of days due to mid-latitude westerly flow. The aforementioned trough interaction should cause a faster forward motion in a few days. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, mostly ignoring the slow GFS solution. Extratropical transition is expected between 36-48 h, and the low is forecast to decay into a trough in roughly 4-5 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 37.3N 64.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 38.2N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 39.2N 60.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 39.9N 57.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 40.6N 54.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 07/1800Z 42.0N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/0600Z 43.5N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/0600Z 46.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
- Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:41:16 +0000: Tropical Storm Dexter Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025000 FONT14 KNHC 050841 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042025 0900 UTC TUE AUG 05 2025 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEXTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE - Tue, 05 Aug 2025 08:41:16 +0000: Tropical Storm Dexter Public Advisory Number 6 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025778 WTNT34 KNHC 050841 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dexter Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042025 500 AM AST Tue Aug 05 2025 ...DEXTER A BIT WEAKER BUT FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AS A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.3N 64.4W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dexter was located near latitude 37.3 North, longitude 64.4 West. Dexter is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a gradual turn toward the east-northeast is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected for the next day or so. Some re-strengthening is forecast in a couple of days as Dexter becomes an extratropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 04 Aug 2025 14:25:27 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 041425
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 04 AUGUST 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z AUGUST 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-065
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST NEAR 29.0N 73.5W FOR 06/1800Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
WJM
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf