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DONATE2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
- Mon, 25 Aug 2025 22:37:02 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 252236
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 23W from
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 19W
and 25W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 49W, from 18N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 66W, from
Puerto Rico into western Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 63W
and 71W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends to near 10N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N35W to 10N61W near Trinidad. Aside from the
convection associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 12N between 35W to 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak and slow-moving cold front is sagging from the Florida Big
Bend to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted along and ahead of this
front, extending southward to 26N. Scattered moderate convection
in the western Gulf from 22N to 27N W of 90W is associated with a
westward moving surface trough. E of this surface trough,
offshore the Yucatan, some fresh E winds are present. Otherwise,
winds in the Gulf are moderate or weaker. Seas through the basin
are 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will arrive in the
northern Gulf Tue. This front will move across north-central
Florida and the NE Gulf on Wed, then lift N of the area by Thu.
Moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will remain associated with the frontal boundary. A ridge will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf region supporting
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon
through the week as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula
and moves westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are
expected with these winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient between ridging along 28N and a 1008
mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh trades over most of the
Caribbean, with strong trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are
7-10 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the
northwestern Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In addition to the
convection in the eastern Caribbean due to a tropical wave,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted W of 80W
from 16N to 21N.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will move across the central
Caribbean over the next couple of days, bringing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through tonight, then
mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Tue night. The
northerly swell propagating across the tropical Atlantic waters
will continue to gradually subside tonight and Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak pressure gradient between a 1031 mb Azores High near 41N44W
and lower pressure near the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only
gentle to moderate trades over most of the tropical north Atlantic
waters. The exception is fresh southwesterlies with seas to 9 ft
ahead of a dissipating cold front that extends from 31N73W to
29N77W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring with this
front north of 27N west of 73W. Near the coast of West Africa, the
NE winds are fresh to strong north of 18N. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW
swell north of 22N between 25W-50W, 7 to 8 ft just just east of
the Windward Islands on the back side of the Caribbean tropical
wave, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary lingering off the SE U.S.
coast will be reinforced by another cold front on Tue, reaching
from 31N76W to north-central Florida on Wed, then will lift N of
the area on Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected SE of the front through this evening. A ridge will
dominate the remainder of the forecast region. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late this afternoon through Tue
night. Meanwhile, the northerly swell propagating across the W
Atlantic will continue to gradually subside tonight and Tue.
$$
Konarik
Tropical Weather Discussion
- Mon, 25 Aug 2025 22:37:02 +0000: NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion - NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)
000
AXNT20 KNHC 252236
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Aug 26 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 23W from
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving west at around 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 19W
and 25W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 49W, from 18N
southward, moving W at around 15 kt. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.
An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 66W, from
Puerto Rico into western Venezuela, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 63W
and 71W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W and extends to near 10N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 10N35W to 10N61W near Trinidad. Aside from the
convection associated with the eastern Atlantic tropical wave
described above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N
to 12N between 35W to 45W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A weak and slow-moving cold front is sagging from the Florida Big
Bend to near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted along and ahead of this
front, extending southward to 26N. Scattered moderate convection
in the western Gulf from 22N to 27N W of 90W is associated with a
westward moving surface trough. E of this surface trough,
offshore the Yucatan, some fresh E winds are present. Otherwise,
winds in the Gulf are moderate or weaker. Seas through the basin
are 3 ft or less.
For the forecast, a reinforcing cold front will arrive in the
northern Gulf Tue. This front will move across north-central
Florida and the NE Gulf on Wed, then lift N of the area by Thu.
Moderate NE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will remain associated with the frontal boundary. A ridge will
continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf region supporting
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will develop over the south-central Gulf each afternoon
through the week as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula
and moves westward at night. Slight to locally moderate seas are
expected with these winds.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A moderate pressure gradient between ridging along 28N and a 1008
mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh trades over most of the
Caribbean, with strong trades in the central Caribbean. Seas are
7-10 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, 3 to 5 ft in the
northwestern Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In addition to the
convection in the eastern Caribbean due to a tropical wave,
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted W of 80W
from 16N to 21N.
For the forecast, the tropical wave will move across the central
Caribbean over the next couple of days, bringing scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong E to SE winds
will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras through tonight, then
mainly moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Tue night. The
northerly swell propagating across the tropical Atlantic waters
will continue to gradually subside tonight and Tue.
...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A weak pressure gradient between a 1031 mb Azores High near 41N44W
and lower pressure near the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only
gentle to moderate trades over most of the tropical north Atlantic
waters. The exception is fresh southwesterlies with seas to 9 ft
ahead of a dissipating cold front that extends from 31N73W to
29N77W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring with this
front north of 27N west of 73W. Near the coast of West Africa, the
NE winds are fresh to strong north of 18N. Seas are 8-10 ft in NW
swell north of 22N between 25W-50W, 7 to 8 ft just just east of
the Windward Islands on the back side of the Caribbean tropical
wave, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the frontal boundary lingering off the SE U.S.
coast will be reinforced by another cold front on Tue, reaching
from 31N76W to north-central Florida on Wed, then will lift N of
the area on Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are
expected SE of the front through this evening. A ridge will
dominate the remainder of the forecast region. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse N of Hispaniola late this afternoon through Tue
night. Meanwhile, the northerly swell propagating across the W
Atlantic will continue to gradually subside tonight and Tue.
$$
Konarik
Active Tropical Systems
- Mon, 25 Aug 2025 23:13:40 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook - NHC Atlantic
000
ABNT20 KNHC 252313
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernand, located over the central Atlantic.
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi - Mon, 25 Aug 2025 21:22:19 +0000: Tropical Storm Fernand Graphics - NHC Atlantic
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:35:04 GMT
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2025 21:22:19 GMT - Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:38 +0000: Tropical Storm Fernand Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025000 FONT11 KNHC 252033 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE - Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:38 +0000: Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Discussion Number 9 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025002 WTNT41 KNHC 252033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062025 500 PM AST Mon Aug 25 2025 The center of Fernand has become exposed this afternoon with bursting convection continuing well south of the center. The initial intensity will remain 50 kt on this package per continuity from earlier scatterometer winds, but if convection doesn't redevelop soon near the center, this is probably a generous estimate. Weakening should begin soon regardless with increasing shear and cooler waters in the path of the storm. Fernand is forecast to become post-tropical early on Wednesday due to a lack of convection, but it wouldn't be surprising if that transition happened sooner. The new NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus. The initial motion is north-northeast or 030/12 kt. A general north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected with some increase in speed during the rest of Fernand's life due to steering from the subtropical ridge and a mid-latitude trough. Models are trending toward a slower and rightward solution, suggesting a weaker storm will not feel the approaching mid-latitude trough as much. The new official forecast is shifted south of the previous one, closer to the Google Deep Mind model, which has had a very good performance so far for this cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 35.3N 57.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
- Mon, 25 Aug 2025 20:33:08 +0000: Tropical Storm Fernand Forecast Advisory Number 9 - NHC Atlantic
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025790 WTNT21 KNHC 252033 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062025 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.2W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 60SW 0NW. 4 M SEAS.... 80NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 57.2W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 57.6W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 36.8N 56.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 38.7N 53.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 40.5N 51.3W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 43.0N 48.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 57.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Scheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans
- Mon, 25 Aug 2025 13:00:04 +0000: Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day - Weather Reconnaissance Flights Plan of the Day
000
NOUS42 KNHC 251259
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT MON 25 AUGUST 2025
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z AUGUST 2025
TCPOD NUMBER.....25-086 CORRECTION
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: ALL REMAINING TASKING REQUIREMENTS FOR SUSPECT AREA
AL99 WERE CANCELED BY NHC AT 25/1140Z.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Marine Weather Discussion
- Mon, 17 May 2021 15:22:40 +0000: NHC Marine Weather Discussion - NHC Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 171522
MIMATS
Marine Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1122 AM EDT Mon May 17 2021
Marine Weather Discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea,
and Tropical North Atlantic from 07N to 19N between 55W and 64W
and the Southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
This is the last Marine Weather Discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center. For marine information, please see the Tropical
Weather Discussion at: hurricanes.gov.
...GULF OF MEXICO...
High pressure along the middle Atlantic coasts extending SW to
the NE Gulf will remain generally stationary throughout the
week. This will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds over the
basin through Tue. Winds will increase to fresh to strong late
Tue through Fri as low pressure deepens across the Southern
Plains.
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
A ridge NE of the Caribbean Sea will shift eastward and weaken,
diminishing winds and seas modestly through Wed. Trade winds
will increase basin wide Wed night through Fri night as high
pressure builds across the western Atlantic.
...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
A weakening frontal boundary from 25N65W to the central Bahamas
will drift SE and dissipate through late Tue. Its remnants will
drift N along 23N-24N. The pressure gradient between high
pressure off of Hatteras and the frontal boundary will support
an area of fresh to strong easterly winds N of 23N and W of 68W
with seas to 11 ft E of the Bahamas late Tue through Fri.
$$
.WARNINGS...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be
coordinated through AWIPS II Collaboration Chat, or by
telephone:
.GULF OF MEXICO...
None.
.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
None.
.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
None.
$$
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/abouttafbprod.shtml#OWF
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National
Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/grids.php
For additional information, please visit:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine
$$
.Forecaster GR. National Hurricane Center.
Atlantic Tropical Monthly Summary
- Thu, 01 May 2025 13:04:51 +0000: Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary - Atlantic Monthly Tropical Weather Summary
000<br />ABNT30 KNHC 011304<br />TWSAT <br /><br />Monthly Tropical Weather Summary<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />900 AM EDT Thu May 1 2025<br /><br />This is the last National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Weather <br />Summary (TWS) text product that will be issued for the Atlantic <br />basin. The tropical cyclone statistics from the TWS will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov beginning with the 2025 hurricane season. This <br />change will allow for more frequent updates to the statistics and <br />the addition of graphics and links to supporting information that <br />this text only format cannot support. An account of tropical <br />cyclone names, classification (i.e., tropical depression, tropical <br />storm, or hurricane), and maximum sustained wind speed will be found <br />on hurricanes.gov at this url beginning around July 1: <br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?basin=atl<br /><br />A sample webpage is provided here, with the "2023 Atlantic Summary <br />Table (PDF)" example linked below the Tropical Cyclone Reports <br />(TCRs):<br /><br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2023&basin=atl <br /><br />This information will be updated no less frequently than monthly <br />during the hurricane season and will be updated after the season's <br />TCRs are completed to document the official record of the season's <br />tropical cyclone activity. Previously, the statistics and data in <br />the TWS were based on real-time operational assessments and were <br />not updated when the season's TCRs were complete. The new <br />web-based format allows the information to be updated once the <br />post-analysis for the season is complete. <br /><br />For more information, see Service Change Notice 25-22: Migration of <br />the Tropical Weather Summary Information from Text Product Format to <br />hurricanes.gov:<br /><br />https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2025/scn25-<br />22_moving_info_from_tws_to_hurricanes.gov.pdf