![[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_hurr.jpg)
![[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg)
![[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.jpg)
ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Gamma as of 10-6-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.
NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Zoomed In Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
Zoomed In Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Past Track History
NRL Floater
Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Surface Wind Field
Cumulative Wind History
Top Analog Tracks
Cumulative Wind History
Top Analog Tracks
Windfield
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
Gamma Key Messages
5Radar Loops Near TD25
Intensity Forecasts
Model Tracks
GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks
EPS Ensemble Tracks
Model Tracks
GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks
EPS Ensemble Tracks
- Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:11 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
000
WTNT35 KNHC 060231
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
...GAMMA BECOMES POST TROPICAL NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma
was located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 88.4 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
day or so. The post-tropical cyclone is currently centered along
the northern coast of the Yucatan peninsula and will move inland
through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated and Gamma is forecast to dissipate
by Wednesday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Through midweek, the remnants of Gamma are expected to
produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with isolated
maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of the Mexican states of
Yucatan, Campeche, and Tabasco. This rainfall may produce areas of
flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
- Sun, 15 Nov 2020 14:30:48 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone THETA Forecast/Advi... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone THETA Forecast/Advisory Number 23 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020 1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
000
WTNT25 KNHC 151430
TCMAT5
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER
WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
- Tue, 06 Oct 2020 02:31:40 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15
000
WTNT45 KNHC 060231
TCDAT5
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL252020
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2020
Gamma was entirely devoid of convection for most of the day. Shortly
before sunset, a few disorganized thunderstorms developed to the
southeast of the cyclone's center, however these appear to be forced
at least in part by a sea breeze boundary and are not exclusively
associated with Gamma. A few other small cells of convection have
developed to the west of Gamma's center during the past hour or so,
but not nearly enough to be considered sufficiently organized to
meet the requirement for a tropical cyclone. Gamma is therefore now
considered to be post-tropical and this will be the last NHC
advisory.
The cyclone could still produce some additional disorganized
convection and periods of heavy rain overnight as it moves inland
over the Yucatan peninsula, but this is not expected to result in
significant regeneration. Some of this rain could impact areas that
are preparing for the much more significant approach of Hurricane
Delta in a day or so. The cyclone is moving southwestward near
5 kt, and this should continue for another day or so until it
dissipates. The winds associated with Gamma's remnants should
gradually weaken through that time, though the system could still
produce a few areas of heavy rain over southeastern Mexico.
It is worth noting that several model trackers, and consequently
the consensus aids, depict that Gamma will move northward over the
Gulf of Mexico and strengthen significantly in a couple of days.
This is because the trackers lose track of Gamma when it dissipates
and start following nearby Hurricane Delta instead. In reality, no
models forecast that Gamma will remain a well-defined cyclone for
more than another day or two.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 06/0300Z 21.6N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1200Z 21.1N 88.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
24H 07/0000Z 20.2N 89.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Facebook Comments