Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

00Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

12Z Runs of TC Genesis Probability Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP, CMC and ECMWF) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Ensemble-based Probability (%) of TC Genesis Consensus (NCEP) 0-48 Hours

0-120 Hours

120-240 Hours

Tracking Delta – 2020 Hurricane Season

ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Delta as of 10-10-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
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NHC Public Advisory on Delta

Wed, 18 Nov 2020 14:40:59 +0000: Atlantic Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21 - Atlantic Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21

000
WTNT31 KNHC 181440
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Iota Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 18 2020

...IOTA DISSIPATES OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 89.5W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM WNW OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Iota were located near
latitude 13.8 North, longitude 89.5 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Iota can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

RAINFALL: The remnants of Iota are expected to produce the
following additional rainfall accumulations through Thursday:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala, southern Belize: 4 to 8 inches (100
to 200 mm), with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches (300 mm).

Portions of Nicaragua and El Salvador: 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm),
with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches (150 mm).

This rainfall will lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher
terrain.

SURF: Swells generated by Iota will affect much of the coast of
Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnants,
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NHC Forecast Advisory on Delta

Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:41:27 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression DELTA Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Tropical Depression DELTA Forecast/Advisory Number 24 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W...Post-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 90.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100Z, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

000
WTNT21 KNHC 101441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 90.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100Z, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

NHC Discussion on Delta

Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:41:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24

000
WTNT41 KNHC 101441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery
indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from
northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no
recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force
winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds
are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force
are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this
afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow
between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the
mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta
or its remnants generally northeastward until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The
global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken
to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more
hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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