Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

Tracking Delta – 2020 Hurricane Season

ATTENTION: The NHC has issued it's last advisory on Delta as of 10-10-2020. All Graphics and Information on this page will eventually cease to update.

NHC Important Links:
NHC Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Storm Archive
Important LOCAL Links:
NWS Lake Charles, Louisiana / NWS New Orleans/ Baton Rouge / Loops of Laura / Power Outages
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models

NHC Public Advisory on Delta

Sun, 11 Oct 2020 04:51:07 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...Post-Tropical DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and near the southern Appalachians. Discussion AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more east-northeasterly on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are expected. Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight. NEXT Advisory ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hurley FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020 ...Post-Tropical DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and near the southern Appalachians. Discussion AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more east-northeasterly on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia, the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding. From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are expected. Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight. NEXT Advisory ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hurley FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

000
WTNT31 KNHC 110450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...POST-TROPICAL DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and
near the southern Appalachians.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more
east-northeasterly on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late
Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia,
the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta
are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally
higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are
expected.

Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern
Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

NHC Forecast Advisory on Delta

Wed, 18 Nov 2020 14:40:32 +0000: Atlantic Remnants of IOTA Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Remnants of IOTA Forecast/Advisory Number 21 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020 1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 89.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS, PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

000
WTNT21 KNHC 181440
TCMAT1

REMNANTS OF IOTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL312020
1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.5W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 89.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 89.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS,
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

NHC Discussion on Delta

Sat, 10 Oct 2020 14:41:57 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24

000
WTNT41 KNHC 101441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery
indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from
northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no
recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force
winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds
are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force
are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this
afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow
between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the
mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta
or its remnants generally northeastward until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The
global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken
to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more
hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

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