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DONATEBeta – 2020 Hurricane Season
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- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 08:32:40 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5
000
WTNT32 KNHC 180832
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
...GABRIELLE STRUGGLING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 50.3W
ABOUT 845 MI...1360 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 50.3 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected during the
next few days.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast late in the
weekend.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 08:32:40 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisor... - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast/Advisory Number 5
000
WTNT22 KNHC 180832
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025
0900 UTC THU SEP 18 2025
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 50.3W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......210NE 180SE 30SW 150NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 240SE 60SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 50.3W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 49.8W
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 20.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 21.8N 53.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 22.8N 55.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 24.0N 57.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 30.2N 61.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 34.4N 58.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 50.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
- Thu, 18 Sep 2025 08:34:11 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5 - Atlantic Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5
648
WTNT42 KNHC 180834
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
500 AM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
Gabrielle continues to struggle and consists of a swirl of low-level
clouds with patches of deep convection over the northeast and
southeast quadrants of the storm. The poor structure is due to
westerly vertical wind shear and a significant amount of dry air
that is continuously entraining into the circulation. The initial
intensity is held at 45 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this
value is well above the latest satellite intensity estimates.
The atmospheric conditions are expected to remain hostile for a
couple more days, so it seems likely that Gabrielle will either hold
steady or lose strength during that time. However, the models
suggest that the storm could move into more conducive conditions
late in the weekend and early next week, which should cause
Gabrielle to become more symmetric and strengthen. The NHC
intensity forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope for
the first 3 days, but lies closer to the high end of the guidance at
days 4 and 5.
Gabrielle has been moving erratically due to the storm
reorganizing over the past 12 to 24 hours, but smoothing through
the fixes yields a west-northwestward motion at 13 kt. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next few days as the storm continues to be
primarily steered by a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.
A turn toward the north or northeast is forecast to occur late this
weekend and early next week when Gabrielle rounds the western
periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is very similar to
the previous one from 12 to 72 h, but it has been shifted a little
to the right at days 4 and 5 to be in better agreement with the
latest guidance.
Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in
Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several
days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/0900Z 20.0N 50.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 20.8N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 21.8N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 22.8N 55.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 24.0N 57.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 25.3N 59.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 26.8N 60.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 30.2N 61.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 34.4N 58.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook