![[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_hurr.jpg)
![[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/return_mjrhurr.jpg)
![[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/conus_strikes.jpg)
NHC Important Links:
Discussion / NHC Public Advisory / NHC Forecast / Wind Probs / Archive
Storm Tracking Important Links:
FSU Track Probability - NOAA Tracker - Albany Tracker - Navy NRL Page - HFIP Products - TropicalAtlantic Tracker - NCAR Guidance Page - CyclonicWX Tracker Products - CIMSS Tracker - TropicalTidbits Tracker - UWM Tracker - SFWMD Models
Projected Path with Watches and Warnings
Additional Projected Path Swath
Additional Projected Path Swath
Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Most Reasonable Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds
Hurricane Force Wind Probabilities
Tropical Storm Force Wind Probabilities
Past Track History
NRL Floater
Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Additional RAMMB Sat - Model Data - Wind Products
NOAA NESDIS Floaters
Other Floaters:
TropicalTidbits - WeatherNerds - GOES16
Surface Wind Field
Cumulative Wind History
Top Analog Tracks
Cumulative Wind History
Top Analog Tracks
Windfield
Microwave Imagery
Microwave Imagery
Intensity Forecasts
Model Tracks
GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks
EPS Ensemble Tracks
Model Tracks
GFS / Canadian Ensemble Tracks
EURO Ensemble Tracks
EPS Ensemble Tracks
- Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:34:04 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52
000
WTNT34 KNHC 130833
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020
...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 21
mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track,
Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S.
coast today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the
next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Beven
- Fri, 13 Nov 2020 08:33:33 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ETA Forecast/Adviso... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone ETA Forecast/Advisory Number 52 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020 0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
000
WTNT24 KNHC 130833
TCMAT4
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
- Thu, 05 Nov 2020 14:50:54 +0000: Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20 - Atlantic Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20
000
WTNT44 KNHC 051450
TCDAT4
Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020
Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests
that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple
vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic
envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over
northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern
semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being
maintained as a tropical depression at this time.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its
remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn
northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move
northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h,
the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low
in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to
turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the
global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution,
there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the
fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west
UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best
overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls
for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in
60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the forecast period.
Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back
over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the
convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the
warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be
slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough.
As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the
global models suggest that the system could strengthen while
acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due
to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of
the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should
be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled
out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.
2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys
this weekend and early next week.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
$$
Forecaster Beven
2 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
5 Day Tropical Weather Outlook
Facebook Comments