Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Rafael – 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Rafael

Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:32:06 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number 30 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number 30

000
WTNT33 KNHC 102032
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...RAFAEL DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 91.3W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM NNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael
was located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 91.3 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h).
The remnant low is expected to meander over the central Gulf of
Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and
south-southwest on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. The remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Tuesday
night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under
AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

SURF: Swells will continue impacting portions of the northern and
western Gulf Coast through Monday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Rafael. Additional information on this system can be found
in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Forecast Advisory on Rafael

Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:31:36 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone RAFAEL Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone RAFAEL Forecast/Advisory Number 30 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER REINHART

000
WTNT23 KNHC 102031
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC SUN NOV 10 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 91.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 91.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 91.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND
IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER REINHART

NHC Discussion on Rafael

Sun, 10 Nov 2024 20:32:37 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30

000
WTNT43 KNHC 102032
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Rafael Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
300 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

The limited convection that Rafael was producing in its eastern
semicircle has collapsed. Surface observations, visible satellite
images, and a 1530z ASCAT-C pass show the surface circulation has
become poorly defined and very elongated in the north-south
direction. Since Rafael does not possess a well-defined center or
organized convection, it no longer meets the definition of a
tropical cyclone. This will be the final NHC advisory on Rafael.

The remnant low is expected to drift eastward over the central Gulf
of Mexico tonight, then turn toward the south and southwest on
Monday and Tuesday. The forecast calls for dissipation by Tuesday
night, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue.
The elevated rip current risk along the northern and western Gulf
Coast will likely continue into Monday. For more information, see
products from your local NWS forecast office.

Additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by
the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. Swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the Gulf Coast through Monday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 26.1N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0600Z 25.8N 90.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 11/1800Z 25.1N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0600Z 24.1N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1800Z 23.2N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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