Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2024 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Do you love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Rafael – 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Rafael

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 23:52:37 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A - Atlantic Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A

000
WTNT33 KNHC 062352
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Rafael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
700 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

...CENTER OF RAFAEL MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING CONTINUING OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 83.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM N OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque,
Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos
* Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the
Channel 5 Bridge
* Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rafael was located
near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 83.2 West. Rafael is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A general northwestward
motion is anticipated tonight. A slower west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected Friday through the weekend. On the
forecast track, Rafael is expected to move away from western Cuba
this evening, and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this
evening and tonight. Rafael is then forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (170 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rafael is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected during
the next day or so while Rafael moves over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are occurring
in squalls over the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, including a gust
of 66 mph (106 km/h) at the NOAA station at Sand Key.

The minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Rafael can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header
WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle
Florida Keys through tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean
through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across
portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12
inches in areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash
flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and
Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should
subside tonight.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Dry Tortugas...1-3 ft
Lower Florida Keys...1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the
western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread
across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week
into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

NHC Forecast Advisory on Rafael

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:48:03 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane RAFAEL Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Hurricane RAFAEL Forecast/Advisory Number 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 82.3W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 82.7W Intermediate PUBLIC Advisory...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

000
WTNT23 KNHC 062047
TCMAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024
2100 UTC WED NOV 06 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 40SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 82.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NHC Discussion on Rafael

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:49:36 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 - Atlantic Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13

000
WTNT43 KNHC 062049
TCDAT3

Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024
400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024

The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve
after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming
quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a
couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and
measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated
minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the
northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located.
Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the
1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is
supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak
estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over
the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is
underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery,
and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall.

With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in
strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba
within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the
storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over
the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and
significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As
noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward
late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where
environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional
southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on
subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward
adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required.

The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael
is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of
a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next
day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build
westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael
to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72
hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with
the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the
remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been
shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the
various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and
southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models
now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern
Gulf by the end of the period.

Key Messages:

1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane
this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for
this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging
hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in
the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight.

3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are
expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba.

4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern
and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

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