Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Milton- 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Milton

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:57:35 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11 - Atlantic Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11

000
WTNT34 KNHC 072057
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST...
...MILTON POSES AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA AND
RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO FOLLOW THE ORDERS OF LOCAL OFFICIALS...

SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 90.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 675 MI...1085 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...905 MB...26.73 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte
Harbor and Tampa Bay.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the west coast of
Florida south of Bonita Beach to Flamingo, including Lake
Okeechobee, and north of the mouth of the Suwannee River northward
and westward to Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has also been
issued for all of the Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas and
Florida Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the U.S. east coast from
Sebastian Inlet Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina, including
the St. Johns River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the east coast of the
Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
southward to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued
along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the
mouth of the St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to the Suwannee
River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Celestun to Rio Lagartos
* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to the mouth of the
Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including St. Johns River

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Indian River County Line
northward to the mouth of the St. Marys River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Cancun
* Campeche to south of Celestun
* All of the Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach
* Florida west coast from north of the mouth of the Suwanee River to
Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect forâ€¦
* East coast of the Florida Peninsula south of the St. Lucie/Indian
River County Line southward to Flamingo
* Coast of Georgia and South Carolina from north of the mouth of the
St. Marys River to South Santee River, South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the remainder of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 90.8 West. Milton is moving
toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion is
expected through tonight followed by a turn toward the east-
northeast and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Milton is forecast to move near or just north
of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, then cross the
eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida
Peninsula on Wednesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a
potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. While fluctuations in intensity are
expected, Milton is forecast to remain an extremely dangerous
hurricane through landfall in Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 905 mb (26.73 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4
to 6 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...10-15 ft
Tampa Bay...10-15 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...6-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...6-10 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
Sebastian Inlet, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...2-4 ft
Altamaha Sound, GA to Edisto Beach, SC...2-4 ft
Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches, with localized totals
up to 15 inches, are expected across portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of
considerable flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with the
potential for moderate to major river flooding.

Milton will also produce rainfall totals 4 to 7 inches across the
Florida Keys through Thursday. In addition, rainfall amounts of
2 to 4 inches with isolated totals around 6 inches are expected
across northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in
Mexico within a few hours, with tropical storm conditions expected
to begin soon. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch
areas in Mexico beginning tonight and Tuesday, and tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning
tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area on the
west coast of Florida as early as Wednesday afternoon, with
tropical storm conditions beginning early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions could begin along the east coast of Florida in the watch
areas on Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible
beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning areas in Florida
beginning early Wednesday and will spread northward through the day.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next day or two, and are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

NHC Forecast Advisory on Milton

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:57:01 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane MILTON Forecast/Advisory Number... - Atlantic Hurricane MILTON Forecast/Advisory Number 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 905 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 70NE 65SE 65SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW. 34 KT...210NE 160SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 170NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W...Post-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 150SE 200SW 160NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 90.8W Intermediate PUBLIC Advisory...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

000
WTNT24 KNHC 072056
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC MON OCT 07 2024

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 905 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 210SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 90.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 91.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 45SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 65SE 65SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...250NE 150SE 200SW 160NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 120SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 90.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

NHC Discussion on Milton

Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:58:32 +0000: Atlantic Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11 - Atlantic Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11

000
WTNT44 KNHC 072058
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

Satellite images indicate that Milton is quite a powerful hurricane.
The small eye has become even more distinct than earlier today, and
radar data from Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with a very
strong eyewall presentation. On the last fix before the plane
departed a few hours ago, the Air Force Hurricane Hunter crew
reported that the pressure had fallen to 911 mb, which is 77 mb
lower than yesterday at the same time, with other data to support
150 kt. Since the satellite imagery continues to show
intensification, the initial wind speed is set to 155 kt, and a pair
of Hurricane Hunters should be in the area this evening for more
information.

The hurricane is moving eastward at about 9 kt. Milton should move
close to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula tonight and early
Tuesday ahead of a mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. This feature should then cause Milton to move
east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed
later on Tuesday and Wednesday. Little change was made to the
previous forecast, with the latest model guidance very close to the
previous forecast cycle, and this forecast remains close to a
consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models.
Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the
model trackers which appear to be too far south.

Milton could strengthen even more tonight with light shear and
very warm waters providing a conducive environment. However, radar
data indicate that Milton could be at the beginning of an eyewall
replacement cycle, with some signs of a moat and a partial outer
eyewall. The evolution will likely cause the system to gradually
weaken on Tuesday but grow larger. On Wednesday, Milton is expected
to encounter a less favorable environment with strong shear and dry
air entrainment, with further weakening forecast. Regardless, the
system is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall
in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well
inland. Residents in Florida should closely follow the orders from
their local emergency management officials, as Milton has the
potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record
for west-central Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a life-threatening storm surge
with destructive waves are expected across portions of the northern
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.

2. Milton is expected to grow in size and remain an extremely
dangerous hurricane when it approaches the west coast of Florida on
Wednesday. A large area of destructive storm surge will occur along
parts of the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. This is an
extremely life-threatening situation and residents in those areas
should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate
immediately if told to do so.

3. Potentially devastating hurricane-force winds are expected along
portions of the west coast of Florida where a Hurricane Warning is
in effect. Milton is forecast to remain a hurricane as it crosses
the Florida Peninsula and life-threatening hurricane-force winds,
especially in gusts, are expected to spread inland across a portion
of the entire Florida Peninsula. Preparations to protect life and
property in the warning areas should be complete by Tuesday night
since tropical storm conditions are expected to begin within this
area early Wednesday.

4. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida today
well ahead of Milton, with heavy rainfall more directly related to
the system expected later on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This
rainfall will bring the risk of considerable flash, urban, and areal
flooding, along with the potential for moderate to major river
flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 21.8N 90.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.9N 89.4W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 22.7N 87.4W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 24.2N 85.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 26.1N 84.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 27.9N 82.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 11/1800Z 30.5N 71.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z 31.0N 65.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

Copyright © 2013-2024 2024 Hurricane Season – Track The Tropics – Spaghetti Models - All Rights Reserved - SiteMap
DISCLAIMER: This website, TrackTheTropics.com, is for general information only and not to be used for any official forecast. This site is made to provide as many useful links and information possible for hurricane tracking and knowledge. Please first consult the NWS and NHC before making decisions on any kind of weather event. We are also not responsible for inaccurate maps or data on this page.

Powered by WordPress & Atahualpa

59 queries. 1.441 seconds.