Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale

Category	Wind Speed	Storm Surge
	mph	ft
5	≥157	>18
4	130–156	13–18
3	111–129	9–12
2	96–110	6–8
1	74–95	4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm	39–73	0–3
Tropical Depression	0–38	0

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th.

A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes!

Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows:

Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less.

Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph.

Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.

Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.

Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS.
Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS.

Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.

Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.

Advisories:

Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.

Outlooks:

Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here

Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page!

Tracking Helene – 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season

NHC Public Advisory on Future Helene

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:34:36 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Advisory Number 23 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Advisory Number 23

000
WTNT34 KNHC 102034
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR MILTON HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 76.3W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 710 MI...1140 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Storm Surge and Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton
was located near latitude 29.5 North, longitude 76.3 West. Milton
is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next
several days. On the forecast track, the center of the
post-tropical cyclone will pass to the south of Bermuda late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the
next several days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: Coastal flooding is expected to continue along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight. The water
could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the
indicated areas...

Altamaha Sound, GA to Port Canaveral, FL...1-3 ft
St. Johns River...1-3 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts up to an inch are possible
along the northeastern coast of Florida through this evening. In the
wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of considerable urban
flooding will linger through this evening across east central
Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing and forecast
throughout central Florida.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Gusty winds will likely continue along portions of the
southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Berg

NHC Forecast Advisory on Future Helene

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:34:36 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone MILTON Forecast/Adv... - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone MILTON Forecast/Advisory Number 23 NWS NATIONAL Hurricane CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024 POST-TROPICAL Cyclone CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW. 34 KT.......270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 77.5W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 200SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...220NE 0SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 76.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/Advisory ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

000
WTNT24 KNHC 102034
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MILTON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024
2100 UTC THU OCT 10 2024

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
34 KT.......270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 76.3W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 150SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...220NE 0SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.5N 76.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

NHC Discussion on Future Helene

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:35:39 +0000: Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number 23 - Atlantic Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number 23

000
WTNT44 KNHC 102035
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton's satellite appearance has continued to take on an
extratropical appearance, and ASCAT data from a few hours ago
confirmed that the cyclone has become frontal. Based on that
information, Milton was declared post tropical in the 2 pm
intermediate advisory. The ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of
55-60 kt to the northwest of the center, so the initial intensity
is set to 60 kt.

Milton has turned eastward and sped up a bit (080/18 kt). A
general eastward motion with an increase in forward speed is
expected during the next several days, with the extratropical low
forecast to pass south of Bermuda in 24-36 hours. Global model
fields and intensity models indicate that the intensity should
gradually decrease during the next several days, and this is
reflected in the official forecast. Dissipation is shown by day 4,
although there is still some uncertainty if Milton will become
absorbed by the frontal zone before that time, or retain its
identity beyond 4 days.

Since all storm surge and tropical storm warnings have been
discontinued, this will be the last advisory on Milton. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Key Messages:

1. Gusty winds and coastal flooding will gradually diminish along
portions of the southeastern U.S. coast through tonight.

2. In the wake of heavy rainfall from Milton, the risk of
considerable urban flooding will linger through this evening across
east central Florida. Moderate to major river flooding is ongoing
and forecast throughout central Florida.

3. In Florida, continue to use caution since deadly hazards remain,
including downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators
are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away
from doors, windows, and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning.
If you are cleaning up storm damage, be careful when using
chainsaws and power tools, and drink plenty of water to avoid heat
exhaustion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.5N 76.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 11/0600Z 29.6N 72.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1800Z 29.8N 67.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0600Z 30.4N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1800Z 31.0N 58.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 54.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 33.7N 49.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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