Current Tropics Activity

Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
CategoryWind SpeedStorm Surge
 mphft
5≥157>18
4130–15613–18
3111–1299–12
296–1106–8
174–954–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm39–730–3
Tropical Depression0–380
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Beaufort Wind Scale

Number Of Storms Per 100 Yrs

Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850


Atlantic Basin Storm Count Since 1850

Hurricane Strike Percentages

[Map of return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast
[Map of return period in years for major hurricanes passing within 50 nautical miles]
Estimated return period in years for MAJOR passing within 50 nautical miles of various locations on the U.S. Coast

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

Lookup Historic Hurricane Tracks

Hurricane Katrina Track 2005

Typical Tropical Cyclone Origins and Tracks by Month

June
June Hurricane Climatology July
July Hurricane Climatology August
August Hurricane Climatology September
September Hurricane Climatology October
October Hurricane Climatology November
November Hurricane Climatology

2014 Hurricane Season Forecasts by NOAA, CSU, TWC, GWO etc…

NOAA today released their 2014 Hurricane Season Forecast calling for an average to below average season…
NOAA outlook2014_400
The main driver of this year’s outlook is the anticipated development of El Niño this summer. El Niño causes stronger wind shear, which reduces the number and intensity of tropical storms and hurricanes. El Niño can also strengthen the trade winds and increase the atmospheric stability across the tropical Atlantic, making it more difficult for cloud systems coming off of Africa to intensify into tropical storms.

The outlook calls for a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season. For the six-month hurricane season, which begins June 1, NOAA predicts a 70 percent likelihood of 8 to 13 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 3 to 6 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 1 to 2 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher). Read the entire article HERE.

Colorado State University and The Weather Channel also fall in line with NOAA predicting below average seasons…
CSU and TWC Hurricane Season Forecasts
According to Dr. Phillip J. Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in its annual preseason forecast released Thursday, the team expects a total of nine named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic Ocean basin. This forecast is below the long-term average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes each season. While TWC is calling for 11 named storms, 5 of those becoming Hurricanes with only 2 becoming major Hurricanes. Read more about their forecasts HERE.

Seems the only organization predicting an above average season is Global Weather Oscillations Inc. (GWO), a leading hurricane and climate cycle Prediction Company, and the only organization that was correct in predicting the weak 2013 season! CEO David Dilley, Ocala, FL, says the upcoming season will be stronger and more dangerous than last year, with 17 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. This will be an about face from 2013 which saw the development and strength of tropical storm and hurricane activity suppressed by hostile upper atmospheric wind shear. An average hurricane season has 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Read the entire article HERE.

WeatherBELL‘s forecast is calling for an average season…
WeatherBELL 2014_Hurricane_Forecast_Graphic
Named Storms: 8-10
Hurricanes: 3-5
Major Hurricanes: 1-2
ACE: 75-90% of normal
The deep tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much-less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a concern, along with the oncoming El Niño conditions. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors stronger storms (relative to normals) in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics.
The ECMWF model is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012, but wasn’t too accurate that year). This year, the ECMWF March tropical forecast is lower than those years.
What is different is that the ECMWF model has a forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! We have been in awe at the lack of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle to the 1950s. While Irene and Sandy have drawn significant attention, they were nothing compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950s or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern seaboard, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the deep tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N, so there is strong historical support for the ECMWF’s idea.
The combination of dry air, what looks to be a relatively colder AMO index, a poor setup for the Indian Ocean wave train, and the oncoming El Niño all argue against higher than normal frequency in the deep tropics. We think this a challenging year, one that has a greater threat of higher intensity storms closer to the coast, and, where like 2012, warnings will frequently be issued with the first official NHC advisory. Read more HERE.

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10-Day GFS of 3-Hourly Precipitation

Tropical Intensity Index

Tropical Intensity Index

Current Vorticity

850mb
Current Vorticity
700mb
Current Vorticity

Favorable Conditions for Development


12 Hour Forecast 12 Hour Favorable Conditions for Tropical Development Forecast

24 Hour Forecast 24 Hour Favorable Conditions for Tropical Development Forecast

48 Hour Forecast 48 Hour Favorable Conditions for Tropical Development Forecast

72 Hour Forecast 72 Hour Favorable Conditions for Tropical Development Forecast

Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity

Saharan Air Layer (Dry Air)

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Current Wind / Wave Analysis

Saharan Air Layer (SAL)

Global Jet Stream & 250 mb

Vertical Wind Shear

Current Sea Surface Tempatures


Sea Surface Temps
Sea Surface Temps
Gulf Of Mexico
Sea Surface Temps

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly


Sea Surface Temperature Analomy
Sea Surface Temps Anomaly

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Wind Shear
Wind Shear
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

Current Wind Shear


Wind Shear
Wind Shear

Shear Tendency Past 24 Hours


Wind Shear

Future Shear Forecasts


24 hour Future Wind Shear

48 hour Future Wind Shear

72 hour Future Wind Shear

Vertical Wind Shear

Vertical Wind Shear
Vertical Wind Shear

Current Wind Direction

ASCAT Data (Ascending/Descending)


Ascending ASCAT

Descending ASCAT

Atlantic Sea Height / Waves

Atlantic Sea Height / Waves
Atlantic Sea Height / Waves
Atlantic Sea Height / Waves

Global / Atlantic Wave Heights

Global Wave Heights Atlantic Wave Heights Atlantic Wave Heights Atlantic Wave Heights