{"id":439,"date":"2014-06-01T09:12:24","date_gmt":"2014-06-01T15:12:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/trackthetropics.com\/?page_id=439"},"modified":"2025-02-05T13:22:56","modified_gmt":"2025-02-05T19:22:56","slug":"graphical-tropical-weather-outlook","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.trackthetropics.com\/graphical-tropical-weather-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"2025 Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"
Page Navigation:<\/b> Atlantic Tropical Outlook<\/a> \/ Tropical Discussion<\/a> \/ Active Tropical Systems<\/a> 2 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook<\/b> 7 Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook<\/b>
\nScheduled Recon Flight Plans<\/a> \/ Marine Weather Discussion<\/a> \/ Tropical Monthly Summary<\/a><\/p>\n
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
\n 000
\n ABNT20 KNHC 302331
\n TWOAT
\n
\n Tropical Weather Outlook
\n NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
\n 700 PM EST Sat Nov 30 2024
\n
\n For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
\n
\n Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.
\n
\n This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of
\n the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the
\n Tropical Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2025. During the
\n off-season, Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as
\n conditions warrant.
\n
\n $$
\n Forecaster Beven
\n
<\/li><\/ul>\nTropical Weather Discussion<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
000<br \/>AXNT20 KNHC 120507<br \/>TWDAT<br \/><br \/>Tropical Weather Discussion<br \/>NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br \/>0615 UTC Wed Feb 12 2025<br \/><br \/>Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br \/>Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br \/>America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br \/>Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br \/>imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br \/><br \/>Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br \/>0455 UTC.<br \/><br \/>...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br \/><br \/>Caribbean Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a 1027<br \/>mb high pressure system near Bermuda and lower pressures in<br \/>northern Colombia result in pulsing winds to gale force each <br \/>night and early morning offshore of Colombia. This is expected to<br \/>continue through early Fri morning. Rough to very rough seas are <br \/>forecast with these winds, peaking near 14 ft during the highest <br \/>winds. Winds and seas will diminish somewhat during the weekend.<br \/><br \/>Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by <br \/>the National Hurricane Center, at the website: <br \/>www.nhc.noaa.gov\/text\/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details.<br \/><br \/>...MONSOON TROUGH\/ITCZ... <br \/><br \/>The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast<br \/>of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to<br \/>03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 00N37W and to 00N50W.<br \/>Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 04N and between<br \/>20W and 35W.<br \/><br \/>...GULF OF MEXICO...<br \/><br \/>A weak stationary front extends from southern Louisiana to the<br \/>central Texas coast. A few showers are noted with this boundary.<br \/>Elsewhere, a ridge over the western Atlantic continues to <br \/>influence the weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. The <br \/>pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in Mexico<br \/>and southern Texas support moderate to fresh southerly winds over<br \/>much of the basin. These winds are sustaining seas of 3-6 ft.<br \/>However, lighter winds and slight seas are noted in the NE Gulf.<br \/><br \/>For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed night, then <br \/>stall from the Bay of Campeche to near the Florida Big Bend on Fri<br \/>before dissipating. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the <br \/>front in the central Gulf through Wed afternoon. Strong to near <br \/>gale force winds are expected behind the front. Looking ahead, <br \/>the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf early Sun and<br \/>move SE across the full basin by Mon evening. Strong N winds will<br \/>also follow this front in the western Gulf.<br \/><br \/>...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br \/><br \/>A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please,<br \/>read the Special Feature Section for more details. <br \/><br \/>Pockets of low-level moisture continue to move across the<br \/>Caribbean Sea in the trade wind flow, supporting light, isolated<br \/>showers. The basin remains under the dominion of a broad <br \/>subtropical ridge positioned over the central and western <br \/>Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the <br \/>Colombian low forces pulsing easterly winds to gale force near the<br \/>coast of Colombia, and fresh to strong winds across the remainder<br \/>of the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward<br \/>Passage. Seas in these waters are 6-12 ft, with the highest seas <br \/>occurring off NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh easterly <br \/>winds and moderate seas are noted in the rest of the Caribbean.<br \/><br \/>For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure ridge<br \/>across the western Atlantic along 28N and low pressure over<br \/>northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the<br \/>central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early<br \/>morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning. <br \/>Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the <br \/>highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are <br \/>expected across the remainder of southwestern and central <br \/>Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds <br \/>through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of <br \/>Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W early Thu<br \/>through Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds and <br \/>rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North <br \/>Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin <br \/>to shift eastward Mon and Tue, leading to decreasing winds and <br \/>seas across the basin.<br \/><br \/>...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br \/><br \/>A weakening stationary front enters the SW North Atlantic near<br \/>31N59W and continues to 30N73W. No deep convection is noted near<br \/>this boundary. The basin is under the influence of a broad<br \/>subtropical ridge that covers most of the tropical Atlantic. A<br \/>recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally<br \/>strong easterly trade winds south of 25N and west of 55W, with the<br \/>highest winds occurring off NW Hispaniola. Seas in the area<br \/>described are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and<br \/>moderate seas are noted west of 75W and north of 25N.<br \/><br \/>The subtropical ridge is also forcing fresh to strong NE-E trade <br \/>winds south of 23N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. <br \/>Wave heights in these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range. The <br \/>strongest winds and highest seas are found west of 50W and south <br \/>of 20N. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and<br \/>moderate seas are prevalent.<br \/><br \/>For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds<br \/>will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic <br \/>ridge persists along 28N-29N. Associated easterly swell will also <br \/>lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to <br \/>moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Thu night, when a cold <br \/>front will move into the NW waters, south of 30N and to the W of <br \/>70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. The front is <br \/>expected to move eastward into the weekend, and stall E to W along<br \/>26N on Sat. The next front will exit the SE U.S. Sun night and <br \/>reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Mon afternoon.<br \/><br \/>$$<br \/>Delgado<\/li><\/ul>\nActive Tropical Systems<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.<\/li><\/ul>\nScheduled Reconnaissance Flight Plans<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n
000<br \/>NOUS42 KNHC 111830<br \/>REPRPD<br \/>WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS<br \/>CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.<br \/>0130 PM EST TUE 11 FEBRUARY 2025<br \/>SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)<br \/> VALID 12\/1100Z TO 13\/1100Z FEBRUARY 2025<br \/> WSPOD NUMBER.....24-073<br \/><br \/>I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS<br \/> 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71<br \/> A. 13\/0000Z<br \/> B. AFXXX 03WSA TRACK66<br \/> C. 12\/2000Z<br \/> D. 10 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED, PLUS 5 ADDITIONAL DROPS<br \/> AT SELECTED MIDPOINTS BETWEEN ORIGINAL 10 DROPS.<br \/> E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE\/ 12\/2030Z TO 13\/0230Z<br \/> F. TRACK WILL BE FLOWN COUNTERCLOCKWISE.<br \/><br \/> 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.<br \/><br \/>II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS<br \/> 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74<br \/> A. 13\/0000Z<br \/> B. AFXXX 14WSE IOP21<br \/> C. 12\/1830Z<br \/> D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:<br \/> 30.0N 125.0W, 30.0N 145.0W, 50.0N 145.0W, AND 50.0N 125.0W<br \/> E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE\/ 12\/2030Z TO 13\/0230Z<br \/><br \/> 2. FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49<br \/> A. 13\/0000Z<br \/> B. NOAA9 17WSC IOP21<br \/> C. 12\/1900Z<br \/> D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY:<br \/> 25.0N 155.0W, 25.0N 140.0W, 45.0N 140.0W, AND 45.0N 155.0W<br \/> E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE\/ 12\/2030Z TO 13\/0230Z<br \/><br \/> 3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND<br \/> THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC<br \/> RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC<br \/> FOR THE 14\/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.<br \/> 4. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT AND<br \/> THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT ATMOSPHERIC<br \/> RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC<br \/> FOR THE 15\/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.<br \/><br \/>$$<br \/>WJM<br \/><br \/>NNNN<\/pre><\/li><\/ul>\n
Marine Weather Discussion<\/h4>\n<\/section>\n