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Track The Tropics has been the #1 source to track the tropics 24/7 since 2013! The main goal of the site is to bring all of the important links and graphics to ONE PLACE so you can keep up to date on any threats to land during the Atlantic Hurricane Season! Hurricane Season 2021 in the Atlantic starts on June 1st and ends on November 30th. Love Spaghetti Models? Well you've come to the right place!! Remember when you're preparing for a storm: Run from the water; hide from the wind!
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season had a record breaking 30 named storms this season, 13 developed into hurricanes, and six further intensified into major hurricanes!

2020 Season Storms...
Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred, Alpha , Beta , Gamma , Delta , Epsilon , Zeta , Eta and Iota!!!! WHAT A SEASON #2020!!!!
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale
Category Wind Speed Storm Surge
  mph ft
5 ≥157 >18
4 130–156 13–18
3 111–129 9–12
2 96–110 6–8
1 74–95 4–5
Additional Classifications
Tropical Storm 39–73 0–3
Tropical Depression 0–38 0
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a classification used for most Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of "tropical depressions" and "tropical storms", and thereby become hurricanes. Source: Intellicast

Hurricane Season 101

The official Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season runs from June 1st to November 30th. A tropical cyclone is a warm-core, low pressure system without any “front” attached. It develops over tropical or subtropical waters, and has an organized circulation. Depending upon location, tropical cyclones have different names around the world. The Tropical Cyclones we track in the Atlantic basin are called Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms and Hurricanes! Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones are classified as follows: Tropical Depression: Organized system of clouds and thunderstorms with defined surface circulation and max sustained winds of 38 mph or less. Tropical Storm: Organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface circulation and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 mph. Hurricane: Intense tropical weather system of strong thunderstorms with a well-defined surface circulation. A Hurricane has max sustained winds of 74 mph or higher!

The difference between Tropical Storm and Hurricane Watches, Warnings, Advisories and Outlooks

Warnings:Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials.Evacuate immediately if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Warning: There is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area. This is generally within 36 hours. If you are under a storm surge warning, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Warning: Hurricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are expected somewhere within the specified area. NHC issues a hurricane warning 36 hours in advance of tropical storm-force winds to give you time to complete your preparations. All preparations should be complete. Evacuate immediately if so ordered.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are expected within your area within 36 hours.
  • Extreme Wind Warning: Extreme sustained winds of a major hurricane (115 mph or greater), usually associated with the eyewall, are expected to begin within an hour. Take immediate shelter in the interior portion of a well-built structure.
Please note that hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings for winds on land as well as storm surge watches and warnings can be issued for storms that the NWS believes will become tropical cyclones but have not yet attained all of the characteristics of a tropical cyclone (i.e., a closed low-level circulation, sustained thunderstorm activity, etc.). In these cases, the forecast conditions on land warrant alerting the public. These storms are referred to as “potential tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Hurricane, tropical storm, and storm surge watches and warnings can also be issued for storms that have lost some or all of their tropical cyclone characteristics, but continue to produce dangerous conditions. These storms are called “post-tropical cyclones” by the NWS. Watches: Listen closely to instructions from local officials on TV, radio, cell phones or other computers for instructions from local officials. Evacuate if told to do so.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Storm here is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline somewhere within the specified area, generally within 48 hours. If you are under a storm surge watch, check for evacuation orders from your local officials.
  • Hurricane Watch: Huriricane conditions (sustained winds of 74 mph or greater) are possible within your area. Because it may not be safe to prepare for a hurricane once winds reach tropical storm force, The NHC issues hurricane watches 48 hours before it anticipates tropical storm-force winds.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Tropical storm conditions (sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph) are possible within the specified area within 48 hours.
Advisories:
  • Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory:The Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory contains a list of all current coastal watches and warnings associated with an ongoing or potential tropical cyclone, a post-tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone. It also provides the cyclone position, maximum sustained winds, current motion, and a description of the hazards associated with the storm.
  • Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Cone:This graphic shows areas under tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings, the current position of the center of the storm, and its predicted track. Forecast uncertainty is conveyed on the graphic by a “cone” (white and stippled areas) drawn such that the center of the storm will remain within the cone about 60 to 70 percent of the time. Remember, the effects of a tropical cyclone can span hundreds of miles. Areas well outside of the cone often experience hazards such as tornadoes or inland flooding from heavy rain.
Outlooks:
  • Tropical Weather Outlook:The Tropical Weather Outlook is a discussion of significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days. The Outlook includes a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours and during the entire 5-day forecast period. You can also find graphical versions of the 2-day and 5-day Outlook here
Be sure to read up on tons of more information on Hurricane knowledge, preparedness, statistics and history under the menu on the left hand side of the page! Here are your 2020 Hurricane Season Names: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine ,Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and Wilfred!!!

CONUS Hurricane Strikes

1950-2017
[Map of 1950-2017 CONUS Hurricane Strikes]
Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total MAJOR Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Total Major Hurricane Strikes 1900-2010 Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Western Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf MAJOR Hurricane Strikes Eastern Gulf Major Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Hurricane Strikes SE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes SE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Hurricane Strikes NE Coast MAJOR Hurricane Strikes NE Coast Major Hurricane Strikes

2017 Hurricane Season Forecasts

Hurricane Season starts early…

For the third consecutive year in a row, activity began early, with the formation of Tropical Storm Arlene on April 19, nearly a month and a half before the official start of the season which begins on June 1st. It is only the second named storm on record to exist in the month of April, with the first being Ana in 2003. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained 12 tropical storms, 6 hurricanes with 2 of those becoming major hurricanes with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units.

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season came in slightly above average with a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. These forecasts were generally in line with the hurricane predictions issued by both the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU as well as the Tropical Storm Risk forecasting consortium. For example, the hurricane predictions issued in early August by CSU called for a total of 15 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes, while the forecast issued by TSR correctly called for exactly 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. GWO was very close in 2016 forecasting 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.

Below are the 2017 seasonal forecasts from all of the major organizations…

2017 Hurricane Season ForecastsA lot of these forecasts below are depending on if an El Niño develops in the Eastern Pacific. This periodic warming of the central and eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean tends to produce areas of stronger wind shear (the change in wind speed with height) and sinking air in parts of the Atlantic Basin that is hostile to either the development or maintenance of tropical cyclones. But there remains plenty of uncertainty regarding El Niño’s possible development, and therefore, how much of an effect it could have on the hurricane season. The only organization and outlier to forecast an above average season without an El Niño this year is GWO.

Colorado State University (CSU) is forecasting a BELOW AVERAGE Season with a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75. The CSU outlook also calls for a 42% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2017, with a 24% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula and a 24% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane. The forecast prepared by the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach is slightly below the 30 year average from 1981 – 2010. They are saying a quiet season is expected due to cooling SSTs, and El Niño.

Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) is also forecasting a BELOW AVERAGE Season with a total of 11 named storms, 4 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes. They project that two named storms but no hurricanes will hit the U.S. The averages from the 1950-2016 climatology are three named storms and one hurricane. Their below average forecast is also due to the anticipated development of a moderate El Niño by the summer/autumn of 2017.

The Weather Channel (TWC) is forecasting an AVERAGE Season with a total of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes which 2 of those will be major hurricanes. This forecast matches the 30-year average (1981-2010) of storms for the Atlantic basin. The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to be less active than a year ago with the number of named storms and hurricanes near historical averages, according to an outlook released Monday by The Weather Company, an IBM business. Their forecast is based on the cooling below average SSTs in the Tropical Atlantic and also the anticipated development of El Niño.




North Carolina State University (NCSU) also released their forecast predicting a NEAR-AVERAGE season with a total of 11–15 named storms, 4–6 hurricanes which they say 1–3 will be major hurricanes. Noting that numbers for the Gulf of Mexico indicate the likelihood of four to seven named storms, which would be slightly above the average of three named storms, with one to two of the storms becoming a hurricane. In the Caribbean, two to three tropical cyclones may form, with one to two becoming a hurricane, with one possible major hurricane.

AccuWeather.com is forecasting a BELOW average Season with 10 named storms, 5 of which are projected to become hurricanes and 3 of which may become major hurricanes. They also believe El Niño will come on board some time during the summer and will continue all the way through the rest of the hurricane season limiting the number of storms.

WeatherBELL.com is forecasting a BELOW average Season with 10-12 named storms, 4-6 hurricanes which 1-2 of those becoming major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 75-95. Again, WeatherBELL also is going with the majority saying an El Niño developing would likely put a quicker end to the season but cautions that some big names have shown up in El Niño years.

Global Weather Oscillations (GWO) is the outlier going against all the major organizations and forecasting a DANGEROUS ABOVE average Season. David Dilley, Senior Meteorologist for GWO says the upcoming 2017 hurricane season will be stronger than last year, and it will be the most dangerous and costliest in 12 years for the United States with 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. Stating the potential for 6 named storms making United States landfalls. Dilley correctly predicted 8 months in advance that GWO’s prediction zones for the Florida Panhandle and Florida’s East Coast northward to North Carolina – would experience hurricane and/or strong tropical storm conditions in 2016, with multiple strikes likely. As predicted by GWO, the 2016 hurricane season was more dangerous and costlier than average. GWO says that 2017 will once again be influenced by a Climate Pulse Hurricane Enhancement Cycle – with very conducive conditions for hurricane development due to the lack of an El Niño, or La Niña conditions. In addition – ocean water temperatures continue to run warmer than normal across most of the Atlantic Basin, and especially in the Caribbean region and the Atlantic near the United States.

Here are the official 2017 Names: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irma, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney

Note: There is no strong correlation between the number of storms or hurricanes and U.S. landfalls in any given season. One or more of the named storms forecast to develop this season could hit the U.S., or none at all. Therefore, residents of the coastal United States should prepare each year no matter the forecast.

A couple of classic examples of why you need to be prepared each year occurred in 1992 and 1983. The 1992 season produced only six named storms and one subtropical storm. However, one of those named storms was Hurricane Andrew, which devastated South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane. In 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The Category 3 hurricane hit the Houston-Galveston area and caused almost as many direct fatalities there as Andrew did in South Florida.

In contrast, the 2010 season was active. There were 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic Basin. Despite the large number of storms that year, not a single hurricane and only one tropical storm made landfall in the United States.

In other words, a season can deliver many storms, but have little impact, or deliver few storms and have one or more hitting the U.S. coast with major impact. So ALWAYS BE ALERT AND PREPARED NO MATTER WHAT THE FORECAST IS! You can rely on Louisiana Hurricane Center EVERY YEAR to bring you the latest and most accurate information on Hurricane Season 24/7… STAY TUNED!

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